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Oil, Gold, and Dollar Markets React as US–Iran Talks Loom

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WTI crude oil, gold prices, and the US dollar index all moved significantly on Thursday as geopolitical developments, Fed policy signals, and economic data shaped market sentiment.

Crude Oil Prices Rise Ahead of US–Iran Talks and OPEC+ Meeting

WTI crude oil futures climbed above $65 per barrel on Thursday, building on recent gains and recovering from earlier losses in the week. The rally comes as investors await high-stakes talks between the US and Iran scheduled for next week. These discussions aim to reduce tensions in the Middle East and limit Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

The move follows President Trump’s reaffirmation of the maximum pressure campaign, including restrictions on Iranian oil exports. However, he also hinted at possible enforcement leniency to support Iran’s reconstruction, suggesting China may continue importing Iranian crude.

In a sign of strong demand, US crude inventories dropped by 5.8 million barrels, reaching an 11-year seasonal low. Cushing stockpiles also fell to the lowest since February.

Markets are now turning their focus to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on July 6, where the group will set its production policy for August. Russia may support a supply increase if conditions warrant it.

Gold Prices Edge Higher on Weaker Dollar, Geopolitical Relief

Gold prices rose toward $3,340 per ounce, extending gains from the previous session. The weaker US dollar and falling Treasury yields provided support, while easing geopolitical tensions added a further boost.

Next week’s US–Iran talks have sparked cautious optimism in markets. While the ceasefire between Iran and Israel is holding, concerns about its durability remain.

Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his second day of testimony, maintained a balanced stance—acknowledging inflation risks from tariffs but holding off on immediate rate cuts. Nonetheless, weak consumer confidence in June raised fresh concerns about the labor market and trade uncertainty, potentially strengthening the case for future easing.

Markets are now closely watching key data, including Thursday’s final Q1 GDP reading and initial jobless claims, followed by PCE price data on Friday.

US Dollar Slides to Three-Year Low Amid Rate Cut Expectations

The US dollar index fell to around 97.5, marking its lowest level in over three years. The decline reflects a mix of easing geopolitical tensions, growing fiscal worries, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

With the ceasefire between Iran and Israel seemingly stable and US–Iran negotiations on the horizon, risk sentiment improved. On the policy front, Chair Powell reiterated a cautious stance, stating that while tariffs may drive inflation, the Fed would likely continue easing absent those pressures.

Traders are now pricing in over 60 basis points of rate cuts by year-end, with the next move anticipated in September. Attention is also turning to US trade negotiations ahead of President Trump’s July 9 deadline, and efforts in Congress to finalize a tax and spending package around the same period.

Looking Ahead

Markets are poised for more volatility as geopolitical, economic, and policy developments continue to unfold. Investors should watch closely for:

  • US–Iran nuclear talks next week
  • July 6 OPEC+ meeting outcomes
  • Upcoming US economic data (GDP, jobless claims, PCE)
  • Fed policy signals amid global trade uncertainty

Stay tuned for further updates as these stories evolve.

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    📰 Market Update: US Strikes Iran, Oil Prices Jump, Japan’s Manufacturing Recovers

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    June 23, 2025 – Global markets are reacting sharply after a surprise escalation in the Middle East, pushing oil prices higher and rattling investor confidence. Meanwhile, fresh data from Japan hints at a modest recovery in the manufacturing sector.

    🇺🇸 US Stock Futures Edge Lower After Strikes on Iran

    Stock futures dipped early Monday after the United States launched airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. The move, which came sooner than expected, has raised fears of retaliation from Tehran and broader regional instability.

    President Donald Trump, who had suggested on Friday he’d wait “two weeks” before making a decision, warned Saturday that “there will be either peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days.”

    What’s at Stake:

    • Potential Iranian retaliation targeting US assets or personnel
    • Disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz
    • Heightened volatility across energy and equity markets

    🛢️ Oil Prices Surge on Supply Fears

    WTI crude oil rose over 2% to $75.90 per barrel, reaching its highest level since January 2025. The market is responding to concerns that Iran may restrict oil exports or block the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial artery for about 20% of global crude oil flows.

    Iran’s parliament has reportedly voted to close the Strait, though final approval is pending from the country’s Supreme National Security Council and Supreme Leader.

    📉 Market Caution Builds

    Major US indexes ended last week little changed, as investors braced for worsening geopolitical tensions and growing economic uncertainty. Risk appetite remains subdued as markets await further developments in the Middle East.

    🇯🇵 Japan’s Manufacturing Sector Returns to Growth

    On a more positive note, Japan’s Manufacturing PMI from au Jibun Bank rose to 50.4 in June, up from 49.4 in May, marking the first expansion since May 2024. source: S&P Global

    Key Highlights:

    • Output and inventory levels rose
    • Employment edged higher
    • Demand remained weak, especially due to new US tariffs
    • Supplier delivery times lengthened, signaling supply chain pressure

    While input cost inflation held near a 14-month low, output prices remained among the softest seen in four years. Business sentiment was largely unchanged and still below the historical average.

    📌 Final Takeaway

    The Middle East situation is developing rapidly and will likely remain the dominant market driver in the short term. Investors should keep an eye on:

    • Iran’s next move
    • Oil market dynamics
    • Safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar

    Meanwhile, Japan’s modest manufacturing recovery offers a sliver of optimism amid global turbulence.

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      📈 Market Update: Yen Recovers on BOJ Inflation Signals, Bitcoin Dips Below $100K

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      🇯🇵 Japanese Yen Strengthens as BOJ Eyes Inflation Risks

      The Japanese yen gained strength on Friday, trading near ¥145 per U.S. dollar, as Japan’s core inflation surged for the third consecutive month. The latest reading came in at 3.7%, marking the highest level since January 2023 and reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could tighten monetary policy further.

      Key Highlights:

      • BOJ keeps interest rate at 0.5% but signals openness to further hikes.
      • Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized a data-driven approach.
      • Companies continue passing wage increases onto prices, keeping inflation sticky.
      • Despite Friday’s rebound, the yen is still down ~1% for the week due to safe-haven flows into the U.S. dollar, amid rising geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran.

      📊 Takeaway: A stronger yen may be on the horizon if inflation remains persistent and the BOJ follows through with rate hikes. However, global risk sentiment and U.S. dollar strength are key counterweights.

      ₿ Bitcoin Slips Below $100K Amid Broader Market Uncertainty

      On Sunday, June 22, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) fell to $99,449, marking a 2.15% decline from the previous session. Over the past month, Bitcoin has lost 7.32%, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment across markets.

      Bitcoin Performance Overview:

      • Daily: -2.15%
      • 4-week: -7.32%
      • 12-month: +57.06%

      Price Forecasts (via Trading Economics):

      • End of Q2 2025: $102,869
      • 12-Month Outlook: $100,787

      💡 Outlook: Despite short-term dips, long-term fundamentals and macro trends suggest Bitcoin may stabilize or climb moderately in the coming months. However, global tensions and central bank policies could add continued volatility.

      🌍 Final Thoughts

      Both traditional currencies like the yen and digital assets like Bitcoin are being shaped by a complex macroeconomic environment, featuring persistent inflation, central bank shifts, and geopolitical unrest.

      What to Watch:

      • Next BOJ policy meeting and inflation reports.
      • U.S. Federal Reserve commentary on rates and inflation.
      • Developments in the Middle East and their impact on safe-haven assets.

      📰 Stay Informed: Subscribe for weekly macro updates and in-depth analysis on currencies, crypto, and global markets.

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        📉 Global Economic Update – June 20, 2025

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        Stay informed with today’s key macroeconomic and market highlights from the U.S., Japan, Germany, and global equity markets.

        🇺🇸 U.S. Manufacturing Remains in Contraction

        The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index held steady at -4.0 in June 2025, unchanged from May and below market expectations of -1. This marks another month of subdued regional manufacturing activity.

        Key Highlights:

        • New orders stayed positive but weakened.
        • Shipments improved and turned positive.
        • Employment fell sharply, reaching its lowest level since May 2020, signaling a drop in factory jobs.
        • Price pressures eased slightly but remain historically high.
        • Outlook: Business optimism is waning, with fewer firms expecting growth in the next six months.

        👉 Takeaway: Continued weakness in manufacturing could influence the Fed’s policy stance going forward.

        🇯🇵 Japan Inflation Eases, Core CPI Surges

        Japan’s annual inflation rate fell slightly to 3.5% in May 2025, down from 3.6% in the previous two months. However, core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) rose to 3.7%, the highest in over two years.

        Breakdown:

        • Declines in prices for clothing, healthcare, and household goods.
        • Housing, recreation, and communications saw rising costs.
        • Rice prices skyrocketed over 100% year-over-year, showing limited impact from government price controls.

        👉 Takeaway: Inflation remains a concern ahead of Japan’s summer elections, adding complexity to BoJ policy decisions.

        🇩🇪 German Producer Prices Drop Sharply

        Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 1.2% year-over-year in May 2025, marking the third straight month of decline and the sharpest drop since September 2024.

        Details:

        • Energy prices fell sharply:
          • Electricity: -8.1%
          • Natural gas: -7.1%
          • Heating oil: -10.2%
        • Excluding energy, producer prices rose 1.3% YoY.
        • Monthly PPI dropped 0.2%, better than the expected 0.3% decline.

        👉 Takeaway: Cooling input prices support the ECB’s disinflation narrative but won’t remove all pressure from sticky core inflation.

        📊 U.S. Markets Set for a Lower Open

        After Wednesday’s Juneteenth holiday, U.S. stock futures point to a slightly lower open as investors react to:

        • Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
        • President Trump’s delayed decision on Iran, while strikes from Israel continue.
        • Oil prices retreat, weighing on energy stocks.
        • CarMax expected to open 10%+ higher after strong earnings.
        • Triple Witching Day could increase market volatility.

        👉 Takeaway: Risk appetite remains fragile. Expect choppy trading as geopolitical uncertainty and technical factors weigh on sentiment.

        📌 Final Thoughts

        Economic data continues to paint a mixed global picture—slowing growth, sticky inflation, and rising geopolitical risks. Investors should brace for near-term volatility and monitor central bank signals closely.

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          🌍 Market Update: European Stocks Dip Amid Geopolitical Risks, Fed Decision in Focus

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          Describes what indicators are in the Swap Hunter Package

          European Markets Open Lower

          European equity markets were set to open lower on Wednesday as investors digested rising geopolitical tensions and awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

          • Euro Stoxx 50 futures slipped 0.3%
          • Stoxx 600 futures edged down 0.2%

          Sentiment was hit by comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and threatened to strike Supreme Leader Khamenei, further escalating tensions in the Middle East.

          Investors are also eyeing:

          • UK inflation data
          • Sweden’s Riksbank policy decision

          Both could influence European interest rate expectations.

          📉 Japan’s Exports Decline Amid Tariff Pressures

          Japan’s exports fell 1.7% year-on-year in May 2025 to a four-month low of JPY 8.13 trillion, reversing a 2% gain in April. This marked the first decline since September 2024.

          • Shipments to the U.S.: ↓ 11.1%
          • Exports to China: ↓ 8.8%
          • Increases: EU (+4.9%), Russia (+5.2%), ASEAN (+0.1%)

          Trade War Impact

          The decline came as U.S. tariffs bite, especially on autos, auto parts, and chip machinery. Japan is seeking exemption from 25% U.S. auto tariffs, while Trump has doubled duties on steel and aluminum to 50%. A 24% retaliatory tariff from Japan is scheduled for July 9, unless a deal is reached.

          🪙 Gold Slips as Dollar Gains, But Central Banks Remain Bullish

          Gold prices edged lower to around $3,380/oz on Wednesday. A stronger U.S. dollar weighed on prices, even as Middle East tensions drove safe-haven demand.

          Key Drivers:

          • Israel conducted strikes near Tehran
          • Iran launched missiles in retaliation
          • Trump held a national security meeting, sparking fears of U.S. military involvement

          Meanwhile, a World Gold Council survey revealed:

          • 95% of central banks expect global gold reserves to rise
          • 43% plan to increase their own holdings — a record high

          💵 U.S. Dollar Eases After Tuesday Surge

          The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dipped slightly to 98.6 after a near 1% gain on Tuesday, driven by safe-haven flows due to the Israel-Iran conflict.

          What to Watch:

          • Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady
          • Market focus is on forward guidance
          • Upcoming U.S. data: housing starts and jobless claims

          Despite weaker retail sales in May, consumer spending remains resilient, underpinned by strong wage growth.

          📌 Takeaway

          Global markets remain on edge as geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and monetary policy uncertainty collide. Investors are bracing for potential volatility spikes driven by:

          • Fed’s policy stance
          • Ongoing Middle East conflict
          • Looming U.S.-Japan tariff deadlines

          Stay tuned for more updates and subscribe for a consultation from Swap Hunter and real-time market insights.

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            How Much of Your Portfolio Should Be in Cash or Forex?

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            When building or managing a portfolio, one of the most overlooked but crucial components is your cash and FX (foreign exchange) allocation. While many investors focus on stocks, crypto, or real estate, holding the right amount of liquid assets can significantly enhance your financial stability, flexibility, and overall strategy.

            Why Cash and FX Matter

            Cash provides liquidity. It allows you to take advantage of opportunities quickly, cover unexpected expenses, and weather downturns without panic selling. FX (foreign currencies like USD, EUR, or JPY) can serve as a hedge, especially if you’re exposed to international assets or geopolitical risk.

            General Guidelines Based on Investor Type

            1. Long-Term Investors (Passive Strategy)

            If you’re primarily focused on long-term growth with a buy-and-hold strategy, a smaller cash allocation is typical.

            Portfolio SizeSuggested Cash/FX Allocation
            <$100,0005% – 10%
            $100,000+2% – 5%

            Purpose: Emergency liquidity, buying dips, or portfolio rebalancing.

            2. Active Traders and Speculators

            If you trade crypto, stocks, or CFDs, you need more liquidity to remain agile.

            Strategy TypeSuggested Cash/FX Allocation
            High-frequency trading5% – 20%
            Swing trader10% – 30%
            CFD/multi-asset trading20% – 40%

            Why more cash? To manage margin, fund trades quickly, and handle drawdowns.

            3. Conservative/Wealth Preservation Investors

            Age and risk appetite affect how much cash you should hold.

            Age GroupSuggested Cash Allocation
            Under 405% – 10%
            40–6010% – 20%
            60+20% – 40%

            Purpose: Reduce volatility, maintain access to funds, and protect principal.

            When to Increase Your Cash/FX Position

            • Anticipating a market downturn or recession
            • Planning for a large purchase or investment
            • Experiencing high portfolio volatility
            • Preparing to rebalance or rotate assets

            Rule of Thumb

            “Keep enough in cash and FX to sleep well at night, but not so much that inflation eats it away.”

            Final Thoughts

            Your ideal cash or FX allocation depends on your goals, timeline, and risk tolerance. Revisit it regularly, especially in changing market conditions. Liquidity is power—but too much can be a drag on growth.

            Need help figuring out your ideal allocation? Organise a free consultation with Swap Hunter to ensure your portfolio is optimized for both opportunity and protection.

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              📊 Market Calm Before the Storm: Why Swap-Hunter Thrives in Uncertainty

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              Describes what indicators are in the Swap Hunter Package

              As markets await U.S.–China trade talks and critical inflation data, Swap-Hunter’s trading system gives you the tactical edge to profit—no matter the volatility.

              Global stock markets opened cautiously this week, with U.S. futures hovering near flat. For many traders, this signals indecision. But at Swap-Hunter, this is where our trading system shines.

              Whether it’s geopolitical risk, inflation uncertainty, or headline-driven swings, our system thrives on structure—not speculation.

              🌍 What’s Moving the Market This Week?

              • U.S.–China Trade Talks (June 9) – High-level negotiations resume in London.
              • CPI and PPI Inflation Data – Key indicators ahead of the Fed’s June meeting.
              • Fed Rate Decision (June 17–18) – Rate cut speculation building.
              • Geopolitical Risk – Domestic protests and National Guard deployment add market tension.

              🔄 What This Means for Traders

              While traditional systems wait for breakouts or trend confirmations, Swap-Hunter works within the noise. Our system capitalizes on:

              • Flat Markets – Ideal for range-bound swaps and intraday structure plays.
              • Volatility Surges – Our setup detects liquidity zones that react to news-based momentum.
              • Institutional Footprints – Identify where real volume is being deployed—not just where price moves.

              📈 S&P 500 Snapshot

              The S&P recently reclaimed the 6,000 level and is now just 2.3% off all-time highs. Rather than chase tops, our system monitors rotational liquidity and traps.

              S&P500 Rotation Zones

              Example chart: Rotation zones identified by the Swap-Hunter system

              ⚙️ Why Swap-Hunter Is Built for This

              Markets are not always trending. In fact, they spend most of their time consolidating. This is where Swap-Hunter’s rules-based, volatility-adaptive system gives you:

              • High-probability setups in quiet markets
              • Dynamic risk management around key macro events
              • Real-time structural edge vs. reactive trading

              ✅ Your Next Move

              Don’t sit on the sidelines while others guess the outcome of this week’s data and talks. Trade with structure. Trade with precision.

              🔗 Join Swap-Hunter today and start trading the markets with confidence—whatever headlines come next.

              Tags: U.S.–China Trade, CPI, PPI, Fed Meeting, Trading System, Swap-Hunter, S&P 500, Market Structure

              US Job Data Cools Less Than Expected in May – What It Means for Markets and Workers

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              How to Trade Forex and Jobs Data with Swap Hunter

              In a surprising turn, the latest US job data suggest that the labour market is more resilient than analysts had projected. According to the recent payroll data, US nonfarm employment increased by 139,000 jobs in May, slightly lower than April’s revised figure of 147,000 but higher than the consensus estimate of 130,000.

              This unexpected uptick challenges earlier concerns of a sharper slowdown, amid fears of new tariffs and broader economic headwinds. While the pace of job creation has softened, the labour market continues to send mixed signals that demand a closer look.

              Key Highlights:

              • May Job Growth: +139K (vs. 130K expected)
              • April Revisions: Downwardly adjusted to +147K
              • Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.2%

              Sector-Specific Trends

              Employment growth wasn’t evenly distributed. Some industries fared better than others:

              • Healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance showed steady gains, signaling continued demand for services and care-related roles.
              • Manufacturing and federal government jobs experienced a decline—potential early signs of budget tightening or shifting production dynamics due to supply chain constraints and tariff concerns.

              This pattern reinforces the notion that while the US job engine is still running, it’s shifting gears.

              What This Means for Workers

              For job seekers, the positive news is that the unemployment rate remains stable, and key service sectors continue to hire. However, those in more cyclical or government-tied industries may want to stay alert to shifting priorities and potential policy changes.

              Implications for Markets and Policy

              Wall Street had braced for a sharper pullback in hiring, so this report could bring temporary relief. Still, policymakers at the Federal Reserve will likely keep a close eye on wage trends and broader economic indicators before making any interest rate adjustments.

              If the economy continues to tread this fine line—neither overheating nor collapsing—it may lend weight to the case for a “soft landing” scenario, which economists have debated for months.

              Final Thoughts US Jobs Data

              May’s job data serves as a reminder that economic momentum doesn’t vanish overnight—it tapers, recalibrates, and shifts. For businesses and workers alike, staying flexible and responsive to these trends will be crucial in the coming months.

              Stay tuned to Swap Hunter for regular updates on the economy, job market trends, and how these shifts impact your career, investments, and day-to-day decisions.

              Have thoughts on how these trends could affect your industry? Drop your insights in the comments or connect with us on social media.

              Successfully Trade Swaps in Forex

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              Being charged Swaps by your Forex Broker

              Swap Hunter will Make Money from Swaps in Forex

              Retail Forex investors are not aware of Swaps until it is too late. Mainly due to a lack of information and education.

              By the time they are aware, their account manager is giving them a high pressure margin call.

              There is nothing quite as satisfying as beating your broker and withdrawing a healthy profit to your bank account.

              Especially when you are being paid Swaps, not the other way around.

              Swap Hunter was designed to do exactly that.

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              The most important aspect of being a successful trader is to keep your composure. To have a strategy.

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              Low Interest Rates at the Banks.

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              Low Interest Rates on your Savings?
              Swap Hunter have Developed a Trading System that Generates Daily Interest on Trading Positions in the Forex, Stock and Commodities Markets.

              Outperform Low Interest Rates offered by your Bank by using the Swap Hunter Trading System.

              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0svvAd98ik0https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k98sxle4lKo&t=272s

              Get Paid Daily Interest on your Trades and Investments.

               

              Swap Hunter analyses and calculates the overnight interest you will be paid by the broker for holding your trades.

              Our Swap Hunter Indicator Trading System measures the strength of correlations between assets in order to hedge the risk of the market. This provides additional safety & security on trading positions.

              Due to the versatile nature of our trading system, you can use multiple strategies in order to suit your level of risk appetite, experience and level of investment. 

              We also offer fully managed solutions for people who do not understand or have time to analyse markets, 

              What is Swap Trading? 

              Or, Carry trading as it is also know as. It is simply when you buy a high interest rate currency against a low interest rate currency and your broker pays you the overnight interest rate differential. The unique thing about the Swap Hunter Trading System is that we use hedging strategies to lower your risk significantly to highly volatile markets. 
              We hedge correlated assets and earn interest every day.
              Beat the low and negative interest rate environment.
              Check out this video from one of our partners, FXTM to explain further.

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