Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones believes the stock market is poised for a powerful surge before reaching the final phase of its bull run.
Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box, the Tudor Investment founder said that today’s market setup feels strikingly similar to the one seen in late 1999, just before the dot-com bubble burst.
“My guess is that all the ingredients are in place for some kind of a blow off,” Jones said. “History rhymes a lot, so I would think some version of it is going to happen again. If anything, now is so much more potentially explosive than 1999.”
Jones pointed to rising speculation, skyrocketing technology shares, and the AI investment frenzy as key parallels to the late 1990s. He noted that circular deals and vendor financing within the artificial intelligence sector are beginning to echo the excesses that fueled the previous bubble.
However, Jones emphasized a crucial difference this time: the U.S. fiscal and monetary backdrop. With robust government spending and supportive monetary policy, he believes the bull market still has room to run before reaching its “blow-off” top.
The Nasdaq Composite, heavily weighted toward mega-cap tech companies, has already soared 55% since April, hitting consecutive record highs. The rally has been powered by investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and the future earnings potential of tech giants.
While Jones cautioned that speculative behavior could lead to an overheated market, his outlook suggests significant upside potential remains in the near term — particularly as investor optimism continues to build around AI-driven innovation.
Gold gains on safe-haven demand, steady US Treasury yields, and Trump’s tariffs kicking in.
Continuing Claims reach levels last seen in November 2021, fueling dovish Fed bets.
Stagflation risks emerge as inflation stays elevated while US employment weakens.
Gold price reverses its course and registers solid gains on Thursday as the latest round of jobs data in the US points to a weakening labor market. Consequently, investors increased their dovish bets as the Fed is expected to resume its easing cycle in September. The XAU/USD trades at $3,385, up 0.45%.
Earlier, the Department of Labor revealed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose above estimates, compared to the prior print. Although the print was close to forecasts, economists’ focus shifted to Continuing Claims, which rose toward levels last seen in November 2021.
Recent weakness in the labor market, alongside higher prices, raised concerns among economists. A Bloomberg headline reads, “Stagflation Concerns Ripple Through Wall Street as Tariffs Hit”.
Bullion prices pushed higher as investors seeking safety bought the non-yielding metal, which was also underpinned by the fall of US Treasury yields.
Meanwhile, higher tariffs set by US President Donald Trump took effect on Thursday, providing a tailwind for Gold. The countries affected are Switzerland, Brazil and India, which have been unable to strike a deal with Washington.
Traders’ eyes turn to Fed officials’ speeches, with participants eyeing cues about the central bank’s next move. On the data front, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for August will be unveiled, along with inflation expectations.
Daily digest market movers: Gold boosted by Continuing Claims as stagflation woes increase
US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 2 rose by 228K, above estimates of 221K and the prior print of 218K. Even though the data hints at the ongoing cooling of the labor market, Continuing Claims were the main reason that investors became concerned about a stagflationary scenario. Claims increased to 1.97 million in the week ended July 26, hitting its highest level since November 2021.
Initially, the US Dollar fell, though it recovered some ground, on breaking news that the Trump administration is considering current Fed Governor Christopher Waller to become the next Fed Chair.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the Buck’s value against a basket of its peers, is up 0.10% at 98.29. The US Dollar’s recovery capped Gold’s advance toward $3,400.
The US 10-year Treasury note yield was losing three basis points, though it has paired those losses, sitting at 4.24% unchanged though failing to cap Gold prices.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated his view that one cut is appropriate for this year but added that there is a lot of data before the next meeting.
Fed Interest Rate Probabilities show that traders had priced in a 95% chance of a quarter of a percentage rate cut at the September meeting, according to Prime Market Terminal data.
Technical outlook: Gold price remains bullish, but traders are reluctant to clear $3,400
Gold price continues to advance steadily, following the August 1 aggressive 2% gain that drove the yellow metal up from around $3,281 toward $3,363. Since then, the XAU/USD has meandered within the $3,350-$3,397 range, with buyers yet unable to crack the $3,400 figure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that bulls are in charge as the index rises, though it remains below the latest peak.
For a bullish continuation, buyers need to climb above $3,400. This clears the way to challenge June’s 16 peak at $3,452, followed by the record high of $3,500. Conversely, if XAU/USD tumbles below the confluence of the 50-day and 20-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) around $3,350/$3,346, expect Gold prices to slide toward the 100-day SMA at $3,275, previously breaking $3,300.
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Silver (XAG/USD) is pulling back after touching recent highs above $39.00. Now trading below $38.50 as the US Dollar extends its rally. The decline comes as the US Dollar Index (DXY) posts gains for the fourth consecutive session.
Supported by a weak Euro amid political turmoil in France.
Although markets remain cautious about the Federal Reserve’s independence and rising expectations of rate cuts, the Greenback’s resilience is keeping precious metals under pressure.
Technical Analysis: $38.35 Support Key for Silver Bears
From a technical perspective, XAG/USD shows a bearish correction from last week’s one-month high at $39.07. Price action is testing support at $38.35 (August 25–26 lows).
A break below $38.35 could drag Silver toward the August 22 low at $37.70, with the next support at $37.25, the lower boundary of the ascending channel.
On the upside, immediate resistance lies near $38.75 and $38.85, followed by the August 22 high at $39.10 and July 22 high at $39.55.
Outlook for Traders
Silver traders should closely watch the $38.35 support zone. A downside break may accelerate bearish momentum, while a rebound above $38.75 could bring back buyers targeting $39.10 and beyond.
For now, Dollar strength remains the dominant driver, leaving Silver vulnerable to further declines.
The UK inflation rate rose to 3.8% in July 2025, marking its highest level since January 2024. This was up from 3.6% in June and slightly above market forecasts of 3.7%, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The main driver of the increase came from the transport sector, where prices climbed 3.2% compared to 1.7% in June. Airfares surged by a sharp 30.2%, largely influenced by the timing of the school summer holidays. Higher motor fuel costs, sea fares, and roadside recovery services also pushed transport inflation higher.
Other notable contributors included restaurants and hotels, where prices rose 3.4% versus 2.6% in June, largely due to more expensive overnight hotel stays. Food and non-alcoholic beverages also accelerated, rising 4.9% compared to 4.5% the previous month.
On the other hand, housing and household services eased slightly, providing some relief. Inflation in this category dropped to 6.2% from 6.7%, reflecting softer growth in owner-occupiers’ housing costs and rents.
On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.1% in July, defying expectations of a 0.1% decline. However, this was slower than June’s 0.3% rise. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, also edged up to 3.8% from 3.7%. source: Office for National Statistics
US stocks saw limited movements on Monday, with major indexes holding near their record highs from last week. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all traded flat as investors awaited fresh catalysts, particularly from:
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting minutes
The Jackson Hole Symposium later this week
Both are expected to offer hints on the Fed’s interest rate outlook.
Trade these data points with Swap Hunter by your side and you are going to have an edge on your Broker, your Bank and your Colleagues.
Equities remain supported by growing bets on multiple rate cuts this year, as markets respond to signs of a softening labor market and disinflation pressures.
Key Market Highlights:
Chipmakers and AI-exposed stocks climbed, with Nvidia (+0.5%) staying near record highs despite recent US export controls.
Retail stocks were mixed ahead of upcoming quarterly earnings reports.
Geopolitical backdrop: EU leaders prepared to meet Ukraine’s President Zelensky following US President Trump’s summit with Russian President Putin.
NAHB Housing Market Index – August 2025
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) slipped to 32 in August 2025, down from 33 in July and below expectations of 34, signaling persistent challenges in the housing sector.
Breakdown of Housing Data:
Current sales conditions: fell one point to 35
Sales expectations (next 6 months): steady at 43
Buyer traffic: rose two points to 22, still at historically low levels
Builder Incentives & Pricing Trends:
37% of builders cut prices in August (down from 38% in July)
Average price reduction remained at 5% for the tenth straight month
66% of builders used sales incentives, the highest post-Covid level, up from 62% in July
This data reflects ongoing affordability concerns, limited buyer demand, and sustained reliance on incentives to stimulate sales. source: National Association of Home Builders
Stock Market: Investors remain cautious but optimistic, balancing AI-driven growth and monetary policy expectations.
Housing Market: Persistent weakness in builder confidence highlights the impact of affordability challenges, even as incentives expand.
📊 Both markets remain heavily influenced by Federal Reserve policy signals, making this week’s Jackson Hole Symposium a pivotal event for investors and analysts.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
1. What is the current United States Stock Market Index level in August 2025?
In August 2025, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones remain near record highs after a strong rally earlier in the month. Markets are currently trading flat as investors await signals from the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
2. Why are US stocks trading flat despite strong AI and chipmaker performance?
While AI-related stocks like Nvidia continue to perform strongly, overall market movement is subdued due to uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. Investors are waiting for clarity from the Jackson Hole Symposium and FOMC meeting minutes.
3. What does the NAHB Housing Market Index measure?
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) measures builder confidence in the housing market, covering current sales, buyer traffic, and future sales expectations. A reading above 50 indicates optimism, while below 50 reflects weakness.
4. Why did the NAHB Housing Market Index fall in August 2025?
The index fell to 32 in August 2025 due to weak buyer demand, affordability challenges, and higher reliance on sales incentives and price cuts by builders.
5. Are US home builders offering more incentives in 2025?
Yes. In August 2025, 66% of builders reported using sales incentives, the highest since the post-Covid period. Price cuts remain common, with an average reduction of 5% per home.
Technical Analysis: S&P 500 – August 2025
The S&P 500 continues to hover near record highs after its sharp rally this summer. Momentum remains strong, but the index is showing signs of consolidation as traders await policy signals from the Federal Reserve.
Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone: 5,650 – 5,700 → The index is struggling to break above this level, marking a potential short-term ceiling.
Support Levels:
5,500 (near-term support) – A break below could invite short-term selling.
5,350 (major support) – A key level to watch, aligning with the 50-day moving average (50-DMA).
Moving Averages
50-Day Moving Average (50-DMA): ~5,350 – Currently acting as strong dynamic support.
200-Day Moving Average (200-DMA): ~4,950 – Well below current levels, confirming a longer-term bullish trend.
Momentum Indicators
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Hovering around 64, just below the overbought threshold (70). This suggests the index is consolidating but not yet in danger of a deep correction.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Still in positive territory, though momentum is flattening, pointing to a possible range-bound movement in the short term.
Chart Outlook
The S&P 500 remains bullish in the medium to long term, supported by AI-driven growth and easing inflation expectations. However, short-term consolidation is likely until traders get more clarity from Fed policy announcements.
Trading Strategy (Not Financial Advice):
Bullish bias above 5,500 support
Watch for a breakout above 5,700 for continuation toward new record highs
Caution: A sustained break below 5,350 could trigger deeper pullbacks
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for July 2025 surged 0.9% month-over-month, marking the sharpest increase since June 2022. This rebound from June’s flat reading easily beat market forecasts of a 0.2% rise, highlighting stronger-than-expected inflation pressures.
Services costs led the gain, climbing 1.1% in July. The biggest driver was a 3.8% jump in margins for machinery and equipment wholesaling, with additional increases in portfolio management, securities brokerage, investment advisory services, traveler accommodations, automobile retailing, and truck freight transportation.
Goods prices also rose 0.7%, fueled by a staggering 38.9% surge in fresh and dry vegetable prices. Other contributors included higher costs for meats, diesel fuel, jet fuel, nonferrous scrap, and eggs, partially offset by a 1.8% drop in gasoline.
The core Producer Price Index—excluding food and energy—also climbed 0.9%, far above the expected 0.2%.
On a yearly basis, headline producer inflation accelerated to 3.3%, the highest in five months, while core PPI jumped to 3.7% from 2.6% in June. Both figures came in well above analyst expectations, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s path toward interest rate cuts later this year. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Economic Calendar Displaying todays PPI data and Jobs data.
📉 US Jobless Claims Fall More Than Expected
U.S. initial jobless claims slipped to 224,000 in early July 2025, down 3,000 from the prior week and below forecasts of 228,000. Continued claims eased by 15,000 to 1.953 million, retreating from a three-year high.
The labor market remains solid despite signs of slowing, with hiring cooling and payroll figures recently revised lower. Federal government employee claims—closely watched after DOGE layoffs—fell by 71 to 637. source: U.S. Department of Labor
All this points to a stronger USD. But we think it will retrace pretty quickly. Get ready for some “whipsaw” action later in todays trading session and coming days.
• A market valuation metric popularized by Warren Buffett is at an all-time high of roughly 208%. • Buffett has said that anytime this indicator approaches 200%, investors are “playing with fire.” • History has proven Buffett right in the past.
Even after Warren Buffett steps down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) (NYSE: BRK.B), his legacy will live on. So will an indicator that bears his name.
Buffett told Fortune magazine in 2001 that this metric, now known as the Buffett indicator, is “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” And now the Buffett indicator is at the highest level ever, sending a warning.
What is the Buffett indicator?
The Buffett Indicator measures the ratio of the total U.S. stock market capitalization to U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Low Readings (70–80%) → Historically great buying opportunities.
High Readings (200%+) → Elevated risk of overvaluation.
Originally, Buffett used Gross National Product (GNP), but GDP is now more commonly applied in the calculation.
The Buffett Indicator, also known as the Market Cap to GDP Ratio, is a valuation metric used to assess whether the stock market is overvalued or undervalued relative to the economy. It is calculated by dividing the total market capitalization of a country’s stock market by its gross domestic product (GDP).
In a sense, the Buffett indicator is similar to the most widely used stock valuation metric — the price-to-earnings ratio. Instead of the share price of a single stock, the total market cap of all U.S. stocks is used. Instead of the earnings generated by a single company, the metric uses the total value generated by everyone in the U.S.
With the Buffett indicator and the price-to-earnings ratio, a lower number reflects a more attractive valuation. Buffett hinted at an ideal range for his namesake metric in the 2001 Fortune article, saying, “If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you.”
Here are various images of the Buffet Indicator demonstrating it’s accuracy to predict price action.
History lesson
As you might have guessed, the Buffett indicator isn’t anywhere close to the 70% to 80% range right now. It’s slightly over 208%, the highest level the indicator has ever reached! If you want to know why Buffett isn’t buying many stocks these days, the Buffett indicator probably explains it.
Buffett’s concern about a high market valuation as measured by the Buffett indicator has been justified by history. He mentioned the indicator spiking in 1999 and 2000, reaching what was then an all-time high. Many investors remember what happened soon afterward. The dot-com bubble burst, with the S&P 500(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) plunging nearly 50% below its previous peak by late 2002.
The Buffett indicator again came close to hitting 200% in November 2021. Within a matter of weeks, the S&P 500 began to sink and eventually fell as much as 25%.
Will the stock market crash again soon?
These historical precedents aren’t encouraging for investors. However, the Buffett indicator isn’t great at predicting short-term stock market moves. For example, the indicator has been above its level in early 2000 (right before the dot-com bubble burst) for most of the period since 2018. During this time, the S&P 500 has soared more than 130%, albeit with significant volatility. However, there’s no getting around the fact that U.S. stocks are historically expensive.
The Buffett indicator isn’t the only metric that reflects this.
The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio, popularized by Yale economics professor Robert Shiller, is near its third-highest level ever.
Stock valuations don’t tend to remain above historic levels for too long. Sooner or later, they will return to a more normal range. With the Buffett indicator at an all-time high, investors probably should brace themselves for what the stock market might do over the near term and almost certainly will do eventually – revert to the mean average, meaning huge declines across all global stock market Indices.
What Should Investors Do Now?
Stay disciplined – focus on long-term investment strategies rather than short-term market timing.
Don’t panic, but be cautious – high valuations increase risk. So it is time to start hedging, find correlated assets and create multiple hedges to balance your portfolio to preserve equity, minimize risk exposure, generate swaps, and create potential to make money on the downside and eventually the upside once the correction is over and markets start recovering.
Diversify your portfolio – to manage volatility. Many stock pickers/investors are moving into Forex, Cryptocurrency ETF’s, Commodities and other Asset Classes.
Cryptocurrencies– Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple and Litecoin have had a lot of coverage recently for multiple reasons. Spot Crypto ETF’s and Stable Coins like USDC are gaining a lot traction and attracting many institutional level investors and the Banks with new legislation being passed post the latest U.S. election. We are happy to go into more detail with you in a private consultation.
Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg sits down with CNBC Crypto World to discuss spot crypto ETFs and regulatory advancements for digital assets in the United States.
Other Asset Classes to consider – Renewable Energies, Water, Data Mining, Rare Earth Metals, AI individual stocks and ETF’s are all places you want some exposure.
Indices – we have started taking short positions on the DOW, NASDAQ, S&P500, DAX30 and NIKKEI. Most of these are also offering a positive swap right now.
What Strategy Should investors use?
Strategy is everything. Our Carry Trade strategies at Swap Hunter offer risk minimization, equity preservation and slow and steady wealth generation. we always hear feedback from our clients how our system is low stress and requires little need for them to be glued to their screens all day and night using technical analysis, watching for data releases and news headlines that cause big movements on the markets and will affect their trades.
In trading, a carry trade means earning the difference between the interest rates of two currencies (the swap).
A carry trading indicator like Swap Hunter would help traders spot profitable carry opportunities — ideally before the market prices them in — by tracking interest rate differentials, central bank moves, volatility, and funding costs.
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Australian Dollar Leads Gains, Asian Currencies Slip
The foreign exchange market saw notable movement today, with the Australian Dollar (AUD) emerging as the top gainer, while several Asian currencies faced pressure. Here’s a breakdown of the latest action:
🔼 Top Currency Gainers
🇦🇺 Australian Dollar (AUD) – +0.30%
The AUD surged on the back of robust trade data and stronger commodity prices, outpacing its peers in today’s session.
💵 Dollar Index (DXY) – +0.02%
The U.S. Dollar index posted a modest gain as traders remain cautious ahead of upcoming U.S. labor market reports later this week.
🔽 Top Currency Losers
🇰🇷 South Korean Won (KRW) – -0.26%
The KRW dropped the most among major currencies due to export concerns and regional geopolitical uncertainty.
🇯🇵 Japanese Yen (JPY) – -0.18%
The JPY weakened as the Bank of Japan stays committed to its ultra-loose monetary stance.
🇬🇧 British Pound (GBP) – -0.10%
The GBP slipped after soft inflation data led traders to price in a more dovish outlook from the Bank of England.
🇪🇺 Euro (EUR) – -0.03%
The Euro edged slightly lower amid mixed eurozone data and cautious signals from the European Central Bank (ECB).
📊 FX Performance Summary
Currency
Change (%)
Movement
🇦🇺 AUD
+0.30%
Strong Gain
💵 DXY
+0.02%
Mild Upside
🇪🇺 EUR
-0.03%
Slight Decline
🇬🇧 GBP
-0.10%
Weakening
🇯🇵 JPY
-0.18%
Under Pressure
🇰🇷 KRW
-0.26%
Sharp Decline
💬 Market Outlook
With commodity markets holding firm and economic data rolling in, traders will continue watching central bank policy cues and geopolitical developments. The AUD’s strength may persist if risk sentiment remains positive, while Asian currencies may stay under pressure without regional economic improvement.
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Mortgage Applications See Strongest Weekly Rise in a Month
In the first week of July 2025, the volume of U.S. mortgage applications soared by 9.4% from the previous week — the largest increase in a month, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. This marks the third consecutive weekly gain, the longest streak since December 2024, as benchmark mortgage rates dipped to their lowest since April.
Refinancing activity, which tends to respond quickly to changes in short-term rates, jumped 9% week-over-week and surged 56% compared to the same period in 2024. Similarly, purchase applications rose 9% on the week and were up 25% year-over-year, highlighting renewed strength in the housing market. source: Mortgage Bankers Association of America
Markets Edge Higher on Trade Announcements and Fed Speculation
U.S. equities closed higher on Wednesday as traders digested updates on trade policy and awaited the Federal Reserve’s next moves. The S&P 500 gained 0.5%, the Nasdaq climbed 0.7%, and the Dow Jones rose by nearly 200 points.
President Trump signaled that major trade announcements would be made, including a planned 50% tariff on copper imports and potential 200% tariffs on pharmaceuticals, though implementation is delayed by 12–18 months to give industries time to adapt.
Market participants are closely watching for the FOMC minutes release, which may offer insights into the timing of potential interest rate cuts. Expectations remain strong for two 25 basis point cuts before year-end.
Technology stocks led gains, with Nvidia up 2.2% and Microsoft rising 1.2%. Apple shares were flat, following a statement by White House Trade Counselor Peter Navarro suggesting the company considers itself “too big to tariff.”
Mexico’s Inflation Slows but Core Pressures Rise
Mexico’s annual inflation rate eased to 4.32% in June 2025, down slightly from 4.42% in May, aligning closely with market expectations of 4.31%, according to the national statistics agency INEGI.
Price growth moderated in agriculture (5.04% vs 6.76%) and energy (3.56% vs 3.93%), while accelerating for goods, food, beverages, and services. Notably, core inflation ticked up to 4.24%, suggesting that underlying price pressures remain sticky.
With falling mortgage rates energizing the U.S. housing market, equity markets buoyed by trade policy hints, and inflation trends in Mexico showing mixed signals, July 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal month for both investors and policymakers.
Stay tuned for more updates on monetary policy, inflation data, and global economic trends.
Trade Tensions Return: The July 9th deadline marks the end of the US tariff pause. Only partial deals (UK, Vietnam, China framework) are in place. Markets are bracing for possible escalations and their impact on global trade flows.
Fed Watch: Investors await the FOMC minutes and several Fed speeches to gauge the outlook for interest rates. Chair Powell maintains a cautious tone, but markets want more clues on the path for policy in H2.
Central Bank Decisions: Policy meetings in Australia, South Korea, Malaysia, and New Zealand could signal regional divergence amid slowing global growth and easing inflation.
🇺🇸 United States
Tariff Deadline: High stakes around the July 9th expiration of tariff relief. Key sectors may face higher import costs unless further agreements are reached.
Fed & Data:
FOMC minutes and Fed speeches in focus.
Data includes: Weekly jobless claims, consumer credit, NFIB Small Business Index, and budget statement.
Earnings Season Kickoff:
Watch Delta Air Lines and Conagra Brands earnings on Thursday for early corporate sentiment.
🇨🇦 Canada
June Jobs Report and Ivey PMI will shape expectations around Bank of Canada’s next move.
🇲🇽 Mexico & 🇧🇷 Brazil
Mexico: June inflation report will guide Banxico’s next rate decision.
Brazil: Updates on inflation, retail sales, and business confidence are due.
🇪🇺 Europe
Germany: Expected second monthly industrial production decline, plus trade, wholesale prices, and final inflation data.
Eurozone: First dip in retail sales in 5 months.
UK: Key data on monthly GDP, industrial output, trade balance, and Halifax house prices.
Italy & France: Final inflation and industrial figures.
Others: Switzerland (consumer confidence), Turkey (IP), Russia (inflation).
🌏 Asia-Pacific
China:
CPI likely flat; PPI deflation to ease (still -3.2% y/y).
Japan:
Full slate of data: wages, current account, machine orders, producer prices.
