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📉 Global Economic Update – June 20, 2025

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Stay informed with today’s key macroeconomic and market highlights from the U.S., Japan, Germany, and global equity markets.

🇺🇸 U.S. Manufacturing Remains in Contraction

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index held steady at -4.0 in June 2025, unchanged from May and below market expectations of -1. This marks another month of subdued regional manufacturing activity.

Key Highlights:

  • New orders stayed positive but weakened.
  • Shipments improved and turned positive.
  • Employment fell sharply, reaching its lowest level since May 2020, signaling a drop in factory jobs.
  • Price pressures eased slightly but remain historically high.
  • Outlook: Business optimism is waning, with fewer firms expecting growth in the next six months.

👉 Takeaway: Continued weakness in manufacturing could influence the Fed’s policy stance going forward.

🇯🇵 Japan Inflation Eases, Core CPI Surges

Japan’s annual inflation rate fell slightly to 3.5% in May 2025, down from 3.6% in the previous two months. However, core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) rose to 3.7%, the highest in over two years.

Breakdown:

  • Declines in prices for clothing, healthcare, and household goods.
  • Housing, recreation, and communications saw rising costs.
  • Rice prices skyrocketed over 100% year-over-year, showing limited impact from government price controls.

👉 Takeaway: Inflation remains a concern ahead of Japan’s summer elections, adding complexity to BoJ policy decisions.

🇩🇪 German Producer Prices Drop Sharply

Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 1.2% year-over-year in May 2025, marking the third straight month of decline and the sharpest drop since September 2024.

Details:

  • Energy prices fell sharply:
    • Electricity: -8.1%
    • Natural gas: -7.1%
    • Heating oil: -10.2%
  • Excluding energy, producer prices rose 1.3% YoY.
  • Monthly PPI dropped 0.2%, better than the expected 0.3% decline.

👉 Takeaway: Cooling input prices support the ECB’s disinflation narrative but won’t remove all pressure from sticky core inflation.

📊 U.S. Markets Set for a Lower Open

After Wednesday’s Juneteenth holiday, U.S. stock futures point to a slightly lower open as investors react to:

  • Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
  • President Trump’s delayed decision on Iran, while strikes from Israel continue.
  • Oil prices retreat, weighing on energy stocks.
  • CarMax expected to open 10%+ higher after strong earnings.
  • Triple Witching Day could increase market volatility.

👉 Takeaway: Risk appetite remains fragile. Expect choppy trading as geopolitical uncertainty and technical factors weigh on sentiment.

📌 Final Thoughts

Economic data continues to paint a mixed global picture—slowing growth, sticky inflation, and rising geopolitical risks. Investors should brace for near-term volatility and monitor central bank signals closely.

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    How Much of Your Portfolio Should Be in Cash or Forex?

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    When building or managing a portfolio, one of the most overlooked but crucial components is your cash and FX (foreign exchange) allocation. While many investors focus on stocks, crypto, or real estate, holding the right amount of liquid assets can significantly enhance your financial stability, flexibility, and overall strategy.

    Why Cash and FX Matter

    Cash provides liquidity. It allows you to take advantage of opportunities quickly, cover unexpected expenses, and weather downturns without panic selling. FX (foreign currencies like USD, EUR, or JPY) can serve as a hedge, especially if you’re exposed to international assets or geopolitical risk.

    General Guidelines Based on Investor Type

    1. Long-Term Investors (Passive Strategy)

    If you’re primarily focused on long-term growth with a buy-and-hold strategy, a smaller cash allocation is typical.

    Portfolio SizeSuggested Cash/FX Allocation
    <$100,0005% – 10%
    $100,000+2% – 5%

    Purpose: Emergency liquidity, buying dips, or portfolio rebalancing.

    2. Active Traders and Speculators

    If you trade crypto, stocks, or CFDs, you need more liquidity to remain agile.

    Strategy TypeSuggested Cash/FX Allocation
    High-frequency trading5% – 20%
    Swing trader10% – 30%
    CFD/multi-asset trading20% – 40%

    Why more cash? To manage margin, fund trades quickly, and handle drawdowns.

    3. Conservative/Wealth Preservation Investors

    Age and risk appetite affect how much cash you should hold.

    Age GroupSuggested Cash Allocation
    Under 405% – 10%
    40–6010% – 20%
    60+20% – 40%

    Purpose: Reduce volatility, maintain access to funds, and protect principal.

    When to Increase Your Cash/FX Position

    • Anticipating a market downturn or recession
    • Planning for a large purchase or investment
    • Experiencing high portfolio volatility
    • Preparing to rebalance or rotate assets

    Rule of Thumb

    “Keep enough in cash and FX to sleep well at night, but not so much that inflation eats it away.”

    Final Thoughts

    Your ideal cash or FX allocation depends on your goals, timeline, and risk tolerance. Revisit it regularly, especially in changing market conditions. Liquidity is power—but too much can be a drag on growth.

    Need help figuring out your ideal allocation? Organise a free consultation with Swap Hunter to ensure your portfolio is optimized for both opportunity and protection.

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      US Job Data Cools Less Than Expected in May – What It Means for Markets and Workers

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      How to Trade Forex and Jobs Data with Swap Hunter

      In a surprising turn, the latest US job data suggest that the labour market is more resilient than analysts had projected. According to the recent payroll data, US nonfarm employment increased by 139,000 jobs in May, slightly lower than April’s revised figure of 147,000 but higher than the consensus estimate of 130,000.

      This unexpected uptick challenges earlier concerns of a sharper slowdown, amid fears of new tariffs and broader economic headwinds. While the pace of job creation has softened, the labour market continues to send mixed signals that demand a closer look.

      Key Highlights:

      • May Job Growth: +139K (vs. 130K expected)
      • April Revisions: Downwardly adjusted to +147K
      • Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.2%

      Sector-Specific Trends

      Employment growth wasn’t evenly distributed. Some industries fared better than others:

      • Healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance showed steady gains, signaling continued demand for services and care-related roles.
      • Manufacturing and federal government jobs experienced a decline—potential early signs of budget tightening or shifting production dynamics due to supply chain constraints and tariff concerns.

      This pattern reinforces the notion that while the US job engine is still running, it’s shifting gears.

      What This Means for Workers

      For job seekers, the positive news is that the unemployment rate remains stable, and key service sectors continue to hire. However, those in more cyclical or government-tied industries may want to stay alert to shifting priorities and potential policy changes.

      Implications for Markets and Policy

      Wall Street had braced for a sharper pullback in hiring, so this report could bring temporary relief. Still, policymakers at the Federal Reserve will likely keep a close eye on wage trends and broader economic indicators before making any interest rate adjustments.

      If the economy continues to tread this fine line—neither overheating nor collapsing—it may lend weight to the case for a “soft landing” scenario, which economists have debated for months.

      Final Thoughts US Jobs Data

      May’s job data serves as a reminder that economic momentum doesn’t vanish overnight—it tapers, recalibrates, and shifts. For businesses and workers alike, staying flexible and responsive to these trends will be crucial in the coming months.

      Stay tuned to Swap Hunter for regular updates on the economy, job market trends, and how these shifts impact your career, investments, and day-to-day decisions.

      Have thoughts on how these trends could affect your industry? Drop your insights in the comments or connect with us on social media.

      Low Interest Rates at the Banks.

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      Low Interest Rates on your Savings?
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      What is Swap Trading? 

      Or, Carry trading as it is also know as. It is simply when you buy a high interest rate currency against a low interest rate currency and your broker pays you the overnight interest rate differential. The unique thing about the Swap Hunter Trading System is that we use hedging strategies to lower your risk significantly to highly volatile markets. 
      We hedge correlated assets and earn interest every day.
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      Low Interest Rates at the Banks.

      by

      Low Interest Rates on your Savings?
      Swap Hunter have Developed a Trading System that Generates Daily Interest on Trading Positions in the Forex, Stock and Commodities Markets.

      Outperform Low Interest Rates offered by your Bank by using the Swap Hunter Trading System.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0svvAd98ik0https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k98sxle4lKo&t=272s

      Low interest rates at the Banks getting to you yet? Well it looks like it will only get worse. 

      Central Banks continue to cut Interest Rates to fuel the stock market mainly because of the Coronavirus pandemic. 

      The time to find a way to make your money work for you is now. 

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      Licence the Swap Hunter software and we will help install, provide all the training and support you will need. 

      Get Paid Daily Interest on your Trades and Investments.

       

      Whatever your asset preference: Forex (FX), Stocks, Commodities, ETF’s or Indices our MT4 Indicator analyses and calculates the overnight swaps for your trades.

      Our Swap Hunter MT4 Indicator measures the strength of correlations between all available asset groups over time. This provides investors additional safety & security on their trading positions.

      Generate a steady income, while lowering your risk exposure to the markets with strategies used by institutional level traders, Global and Central Banks.  

      We have made it easy for you to do the same thing. 

      Due to the versatile nature of our MT4 Indicator, you can use multiple strategies in order to suit your level of investment, experience and availability.
      We also offer a fully managed solution using copy trading, social trading and PAMM/MAM accounts.

      What is Swap Trading? 

      Or, Carry trading as it is also know as. It is simply when you buy a high interest rate currency against a low interest rate currency and your broker pays you the overnight interest rate differential. The unique thing about the Swap Hunter Trading System is that we use hedging strategies to lower your risk significantly to highly volatile markets. 
      We hedge correlated assets and earn interest every day.
      Beat the low and negative interest rate environment.
      Check out this video from one of our partners to explain further about Swaps.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzCFwTwQ4Ts

      Try Our One Month Trial

      Register Here

      Recommended Brokers.

      Low Interest Rates and Negative Interest Rates Explained.

      How do negative interest rates affect my savings?

      Swap Hunter Trading System eliminates these problems for savers.

      Lower the risk of Online Trading with the Swap Hunter Trading System

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      The Swap Hunter Trading System generates interest on your trades every day.

      By simultaneously buying and selling correlated assets (hedging), will lower the risk of online trading.

      This gives you an Edge Over the Market.

      And your broker will be paying you overnight Swaps instead of charging you Overnight Fees to hold on to your trades.

      We have a few strategies developed for different types of investors.
      Long-term, short-term, experienced and non-experienced investors who are new to the market can also benefit from the Swap Hunter Trading System Managed PAMM account option.

      Watch this You Tube video to see a more visual demonstration of the Swap Hunter Trading System.
      Lower the risk of Online Trading with the Swap Hunter Trading System

      Check out our various Swap Hunter Trading System Videos.

      The Swap Hunter Trading System has the Correlation Matrix. It will show you which assets to open a hedge trade on. Sorted in order of the strength of their correlations. It calculates and shows you which assets are offering the highest overnight NET Swap payments.

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      Lower the risk of Online Trading with the Swap Hunter Trading System.

      So many MT4 traders do not calculate how much they lose from overnight fees/Swaps on their trades.
      They are not informed by about trading “With the Swaps”

      Swap trading or Carry Trading is very advanced. We have some very advanced, institutional level investment strategies that we can teach you and provide continual trading support, or we can look at our managed portfolios.

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      Register on our website or just send us an email to have a FREE consultation call from a Swap Hunter team member.

      Stock Market at All Time Highs

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      When is the right time to start selling the Stock Market at all time highs?

      S&P 500 Past 10 Years

      Stock Market at All Time highs. We are witnessing the longest BULL rally in 100 years. Many economists say this is due to loose monetary policy. Quantitative Easing and now the introduction of Interest Rate Cuts being used to stimulate growth are a major cause of the stock market at to be at all time highs. Also an incredibly strong labor market in the United States is also a cause of this historic rally. With the U.S. at full employment.

      US-China Trade Deal Phase one has been reached and this is another market positive. Some say it is just a political move in preparation for the US 2020 Presidential election. It will take some pressure off US farmers and middle Americans who are a large chunk of Trump’s political base. But world famous economist Mohamed El-Erian is slightly more pessimistic than the White House would have us believe. As you can read in this CNBC article.

      It is difficult to use technical analysis in order to choose an entry point to sell the markets. As there is so much geopolitical and fundamental news to digest and analyse. The news headlines are coming in thick and fast. And sentiment is changing all the time.

      How can Swap Hunter help you with this unpredictable scenario?

      Carry Trading is the solution, but the way our software does it is unique. We do not just trade in one direction when using the Swap Hunter software. We hedge correlated assets and play the interest rates differentials of currencies in order to gain Swaps every day. We are hedging so we can lower the overall risk of the market. Our goal is to provide our clients with full support and education in order for them to generate more interest than the Banks.

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