United States Stock Market Index & Housing Market Update – August 2025

18. August 2025 by Analyst

Stock Market Overview

US stocks saw limited movements on Monday, with major indexes holding near their record highs from last week. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all traded flat as investors awaited fresh catalysts, particularly from:

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting minutes
The Jackson Hole Symposium later this week

Both are expected to offer hints on the Fed’s interest rate outlook.

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Equities remain supported by growing bets on multiple rate cuts this year, as markets respond to signs of a softening labor market and disinflation pressures.

Key Market Highlights:

Chipmakers and AI-exposed stocks climbed, with Nvidia (+0.5%) staying near record highs despite recent US export controls.
Retail stocks were mixed ahead of upcoming quarterly earnings reports.
Geopolitical backdrop: EU leaders prepared to meet Ukraine’s President Zelensky following US President Trump’s summit with Russian President Putin.

NAHB Housing Market Index – August 2025

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) slipped to 32 in August 2025, down from 33 in July and below expectations of 34, signaling persistent challenges in the housing sector.

Breakdown of Housing Data:

Current sales conditions: fell one point to 35
Sales expectations (next 6 months): steady at 43
Buyer traffic: rose two points to 22, still at historically low levels

Builder Incentives & Pricing Trends:

37% of builders cut prices in August (down from 38% in July)
Average price reduction remained at 5% for the tenth straight month
66% of builders used sales incentives, the highest post-Covid level, up from 62% in July

This data reflects ongoing affordability concerns, limited buyer demand, and sustained reliance on incentives to stimulate sales. source: National Association of Home Builders

Outlook

Stock Market: Investors remain cautious but optimistic, balancing AI-driven growth and monetary policy expectations.
Housing Market: Persistent weakness in builder confidence highlights the impact of affordability challenges, even as incentives expand.

📊 Both markets remain heavily influenced by Federal Reserve policy signals, making this week’s Jackson Hole Symposium a pivotal event for investors and analysts.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. What is the current United States Stock Market Index level in August 2025?

In August 2025, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones remain near record highs after a strong rally earlier in the month. Markets are currently trading flat as investors await signals from the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

2. Why are US stocks trading flat despite strong AI and chipmaker performance?

While AI-related stocks like Nvidia continue to perform strongly, overall market movement is subdued due to uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. Investors are waiting for clarity from the Jackson Hole Symposium and FOMC meeting minutes.

3. What does the NAHB Housing Market Index measure?

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) measures builder confidence in the housing market, covering current sales, buyer traffic, and future sales expectations. A reading above 50 indicates optimism, while below 50 reflects weakness.

4. Why did the NAHB Housing Market Index fall in August 2025?

The index fell to 32 in August 2025 due to weak buyer demand, affordability challenges, and higher reliance on sales incentives and price cuts by builders.

5. Are US home builders offering more incentives in 2025?

Yes. In August 2025, 66% of builders reported using sales incentives, the highest since the post-Covid period. Price cuts remain common, with an average reduction of 5% per home.

Technical Analysis: S&P 500 – August 2025

The S&P 500 continues to hover near record highs after its sharp rally this summer. Momentum remains strong, but the index is showing signs of consolidation as traders await policy signals from the Federal Reserve.

Key Technical Levels

Resistance Zone: 5,650 – 5,700 → The index is struggling to break above this level, marking a potential short-term ceiling.
Support Levels:
- 5,500 (near-term support) – A break below could invite short-term selling.
- 5,350 (major support) – A key level to watch, aligning with the 50-day moving average (50-DMA).

Moving Averages

50-Day Moving Average (50-DMA): ~5,350 – Currently acting as strong dynamic support.
200-Day Moving Average (200-DMA): ~4,950 – Well below current levels, confirming a longer-term bullish trend.

Momentum Indicators

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Hovering around 64, just below the overbought threshold (70). This suggests the index is consolidating but not yet in danger of a deep correction.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Still in positive territory, though momentum is flattening, pointing to a possible range-bound movement in the short term.

Chart Outlook

The S&P 500 remains bullish in the medium to long term, supported by AI-driven growth and easing inflation expectations. However, short-term consolidation is likely until traders get more clarity from Fed policy announcements.

Trading Strategy (Not Financial Advice):

Bullish bias above 5,500 support
Watch for a breakout above 5,700 for continuation toward new record highs
Caution: A sustained break below 5,350 could trigger deeper pullbacks

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🌍 FX Market Update – August 6, 2025

6. August 2025 by Analyst

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Australian Dollar Leads Gains, Asian Currencies Slip

The foreign exchange market saw notable movement today, with the Australian Dollar (AUD) emerging as the top gainer, while several Asian currencies faced pressure. Here’s a breakdown of the latest action:

🔼 Top Currency Gainers

🇦🇺 Australian Dollar (AUD) – +0.30%

The AUD surged on the back of robust trade data and stronger commodity prices, outpacing its peers in today’s session.

💵 Dollar Index (DXY) – +0.02%

The U.S. Dollar index posted a modest gain as traders remain cautious ahead of upcoming U.S. labor market reports later this week.

🔽 Top Currency Losers

🇰🇷 South Korean Won (KRW) – -0.26%

The KRW dropped the most among major currencies due to export concerns and regional geopolitical uncertainty.

🇯🇵 Japanese Yen (JPY) – -0.18%

The JPY weakened as the Bank of Japan stays committed to its ultra-loose monetary stance.

🇬🇧 British Pound (GBP) – -0.10%

The GBP slipped after soft inflation data led traders to price in a more dovish outlook from the Bank of England.

🇪🇺 Euro (EUR) – -0.03%

The Euro edged slightly lower amid mixed eurozone data and cautious signals from the European Central Bank (ECB).

📊 FX Performance Summary

Currency	Change (%)	Movement
🇦🇺 AUD	+0.30%	Strong Gain
💵 DXY	+0.02%	Mild Upside
🇪🇺 EUR	-0.03%	Slight Decline
🇬🇧 GBP	-0.10%	Weakening
🇯🇵 JPY	-0.18%	Under Pressure
🇰🇷 KRW	-0.26%	Sharp Decline

💬 Market Outlook

With commodity markets holding firm and economic data rolling in, traders will continue watching central bank policy cues and geopolitical developments. The AUD’s strength may persist if risk sentiment remains positive, while Asian currencies may stay under pressure without regional economic improvement.

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U.S. Mortgage Applications Surge, Markets Rally Amid Trade Developments, and Mexico Inflation Softens

9. July 2025 by Analyst

Mortgage Applications See Strongest Weekly Rise in a Month

In the first week of July 2025, the volume of U.S. mortgage applications soared by 9.4% from the previous week — the largest increase in a month, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. This marks the third consecutive weekly gain, the longest streak since December 2024, as benchmark mortgage rates dipped to their lowest since April.

Refinancing activity, which tends to respond quickly to changes in short-term rates, jumped 9% week-over-week and surged 56% compared to the same period in 2024. Similarly, purchase applications rose 9% on the week and were up 25% year-over-year, highlighting renewed strength in the housing market. source: Mortgage Bankers Association of America

Markets Edge Higher on Trade Announcements and Fed Speculation

U.S. equities closed higher on Wednesday as traders digested updates on trade policy and awaited the Federal Reserve’s next moves. The S&P 500 gained 0.5%, the Nasdaq climbed 0.7%, and the Dow Jones rose by nearly 200 points.

President Trump signaled that major trade announcements would be made, including a planned 50% tariff on copper imports and potential 200% tariffs on pharmaceuticals, though implementation is delayed by 12–18 months to give industries time to adapt.

Market participants are closely watching for the FOMC minutes release, which may offer insights into the timing of potential interest rate cuts. Expectations remain strong for two 25 basis point cuts before year-end.

Technology stocks led gains, with Nvidia up 2.2% and Microsoft rising 1.2%. Apple shares were flat, following a statement by White House Trade Counselor Peter Navarro suggesting the company considers itself “too big to tariff.”

Mexico’s Inflation Slows but Core Pressures Rise

Mexico’s annual inflation rate eased to 4.32% in June 2025, down slightly from 4.42% in May, aligning closely with market expectations of 4.31%, according to the national statistics agency INEGI.

Price growth moderated in agriculture (5.04% vs 6.76%) and energy (3.56% vs 3.93%), while accelerating for goods, food, beverages, and services. Notably, core inflation ticked up to 4.24%, suggesting that underlying price pressures remain sticky.

On a monthly basis, inflation was unchanged at 0.28%, maintaining the same pace as in May. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI)

Conclusion

With falling mortgage rates energizing the U.S. housing market, equity markets buoyed by trade policy hints, and inflation trends in Mexico showing mixed signals, July 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal month for both investors and policymakers.

Stay tuned for more updates on monetary policy, inflation data, and global economic trends.

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Markets eye US tariff deadline, FOMC minutes, global central bank moves, and key data from China, Germany, UK, and Canada in the week of July 7.

4. July 2025 by Analyst

🌍 Global Themes

Trade Tensions Return: The July 9th deadline marks the end of the US tariff pause. Only partial deals (UK, Vietnam, China framework) are in place. Markets are bracing for possible escalations and their impact on global trade flows.
Fed Watch: Investors await the FOMC minutes and several Fed speeches to gauge the outlook for interest rates. Chair Powell maintains a cautious tone, but markets want more clues on the path for policy in H2.
Central Bank Decisions: Policy meetings in Australia, South Korea, Malaysia, and New Zealand could signal regional divergence amid slowing global growth and easing inflation.

🇺🇸 United States

Tariff Deadline: High stakes around the July 9th expiration of tariff relief. Key sectors may face higher import costs unless further agreements are reached.
Fed & Data:
- FOMC minutes and Fed speeches in focus.
- Data includes: Weekly jobless claims, consumer credit, NFIB Small Business Index, and budget statement.
Earnings Season Kickoff:
- Watch Delta Air Lines and Conagra Brands earnings on Thursday for early corporate sentiment.

🇨🇦 Canada

June Jobs Report and Ivey PMI will shape expectations around Bank of Canada’s next move.

🇲🇽 Mexico & 🇧🇷 Brazil

Mexico: June inflation report will guide Banxico’s next rate decision.
Brazil: Updates on inflation, retail sales, and business confidence are due.

🇪🇺 Europe

Germany: Expected second monthly industrial production decline, plus trade, wholesale prices, and final inflation data.
Eurozone: First dip in retail sales in 5 months.
UK: Key data on monthly GDP, industrial output, trade balance, and Halifax house prices.
Italy & France: Final inflation and industrial figures.
Others: Switzerland (consumer confidence), Turkey (IP), Russia (inflation).

🌏 Asia-Pacific

China:
- CPI likely flat; PPI deflation to ease (still -3.2% y/y).
Japan:
- Full slate of data: wages, current account, machine orders, producer prices.
Australia:
- RBA decision: Third rate cut (25 bps) expected.
South Korea & Malaysia:
- Monetary policy updates amid growth concerns.
New Zealand:
- RBNZ to hold at 3.25%.
Others:
- Inflation data: Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan.
- Singapore: GDP growth to be closely watched.

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📉 Global Economic Update – June 20, 2025

20. June 2025 by Analyst

Stay informed with today’s key macroeconomic and market highlights from the U.S., Japan, Germany, and global equity markets.

🇺🇸 U.S. Manufacturing Remains in Contraction

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index held steady at -4.0 in June 2025, unchanged from May and below market expectations of -1. This marks another month of subdued regional manufacturing activity.

Key Highlights:

New orders stayed positive but weakened.
Shipments improved and turned positive.
Employment fell sharply, reaching its lowest level since May 2020, signaling a drop in factory jobs.
Price pressures eased slightly but remain historically high.
Outlook: Business optimism is waning, with fewer firms expecting growth in the next six months.

👉 Takeaway: Continued weakness in manufacturing could influence the Fed’s policy stance going forward.

🇯🇵 Japan Inflation Eases, Core CPI Surges

Japan’s annual inflation rate fell slightly to 3.5% in May 2025, down from 3.6% in the previous two months. However, core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) rose to 3.7%, the highest in over two years.

Breakdown:

Declines in prices for clothing, healthcare, and household goods.
Housing, recreation, and communications saw rising costs.
Rice prices skyrocketed over 100% year-over-year, showing limited impact from government price controls.

👉 Takeaway: Inflation remains a concern ahead of Japan’s summer elections, adding complexity to BoJ policy decisions.

🇩🇪 German Producer Prices Drop Sharply

Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 1.2% year-over-year in May 2025, marking the third straight month of decline and the sharpest drop since September 2024.

Details:

Energy prices fell sharply:
- Electricity: -8.1%
- Natural gas: -7.1%
- Heating oil: -10.2%
Excluding energy, producer prices rose 1.3% YoY.
Monthly PPI dropped 0.2%, better than the expected 0.3% decline.

👉 Takeaway: Cooling input prices support the ECB’s disinflation narrative but won’t remove all pressure from sticky core inflation.

📊 U.S. Markets Set for a Lower Open

After Wednesday’s Juneteenth holiday, U.S. stock futures point to a slightly lower open as investors react to:

Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
President Trump’s delayed decision on Iran, while strikes from Israel continue.
Oil prices retreat, weighing on energy stocks.
CarMax expected to open 10%+ higher after strong earnings.
Triple Witching Day could increase market volatility.

👉 Takeaway: Risk appetite remains fragile. Expect choppy trading as geopolitical uncertainty and technical factors weigh on sentiment.

📌 Final Thoughts

Economic data continues to paint a mixed global picture—slowing growth, sticky inflation, and rising geopolitical risks. Investors should brace for near-term volatility and monitor central bank signals closely.

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How Much of Your Portfolio Should Be in Cash or Forex?

14. June 2025 by Analyst

When building or managing a portfolio, one of the most overlooked but crucial components is your cash and FX (foreign exchange) allocation. While many investors focus on stocks, crypto, or real estate, holding the right amount of liquid assets can significantly enhance your financial stability, flexibility, and overall strategy.

Why Cash and FX Matter

Cash provides liquidity. It allows you to take advantage of opportunities quickly, cover unexpected expenses, and weather downturns without panic selling. FX (foreign currencies like USD, EUR, or JPY) can serve as a hedge, especially if you’re exposed to international assets or geopolitical risk.

General Guidelines Based on Investor Type

1. Long-Term Investors (Passive Strategy)

If you’re primarily focused on long-term growth with a buy-and-hold strategy, a smaller cash allocation is typical.

Portfolio Size	Suggested Cash/FX Allocation
<$100,000	5% – 10%
$100,000+	2% – 5%

Purpose: Emergency liquidity, buying dips, or portfolio rebalancing.

2. Active Traders and Speculators

If you trade crypto, stocks, or CFDs, you need more liquidity to remain agile.

Strategy Type	Suggested Cash/FX Allocation
High-frequency trading	5% – 20%
Swing trader	10% – 30%
CFD/multi-asset trading	20% – 40%

Why more cash? To manage margin, fund trades quickly, and handle drawdowns.

3. Conservative/Wealth Preservation Investors

Age and risk appetite affect how much cash you should hold.

Age Group	Suggested Cash Allocation
Under 40	5% – 10%
40–60	10% – 20%
60+	20% – 40%

Purpose: Reduce volatility, maintain access to funds, and protect principal.

When to Increase Your Cash/FX Position

Anticipating a market downturn or recession
Planning for a large purchase or investment
Experiencing high portfolio volatility
Preparing to rebalance or rotate assets

Rule of Thumb

“Keep enough in cash and FX to sleep well at night, but not so much that inflation eats it away.”

Final Thoughts

Your ideal cash or FX allocation depends on your goals, timeline, and risk tolerance. Revisit it regularly, especially in changing market conditions. Liquidity is power—but too much can be a drag on growth.

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US Job Data Cools Less Than Expected in May – What It Means for Markets and Workers

9. June 2025 by Analyst

How to Trade Forex and Jobs Data with Swap Hunter

In a surprising turn, the latest US job data suggest that the labour market is more resilient than analysts had projected. According to the recent payroll data, US nonfarm employment increased by 139,000 jobs in May, slightly lower than April’s revised figure of 147,000 but higher than the consensus estimate of 130,000.

This unexpected uptick challenges earlier concerns of a sharper slowdown, amid fears of new tariffs and broader economic headwinds. While the pace of job creation has softened, the labour market continues to send mixed signals that demand a closer look.

Key Highlights:

May Job Growth: +139K (vs. 130K expected)
April Revisions: Downwardly adjusted to +147K
Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.2%

Sector-Specific Trends

Employment growth wasn’t evenly distributed. Some industries fared better than others:

Healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance showed steady gains, signaling continued demand for services and care-related roles.
Manufacturing and federal government jobs experienced a decline—potential early signs of budget tightening or shifting production dynamics due to supply chain constraints and tariff concerns.

This pattern reinforces the notion that while the US job engine is still running, it’s shifting gears.

What This Means for Workers

For job seekers, the positive news is that the unemployment rate remains stable, and key service sectors continue to hire. However, those in more cyclical or government-tied industries may want to stay alert to shifting priorities and potential policy changes.

Implications for Markets and Policy

Wall Street had braced for a sharper pullback in hiring, so this report could bring temporary relief. Still, policymakers at the Federal Reserve will likely keep a close eye on wage trends and broader economic indicators before making any interest rate adjustments.

If the economy continues to tread this fine line—neither overheating nor collapsing—it may lend weight to the case for a “soft landing” scenario, which economists have debated for months.

Final Thoughts US Jobs Data

May’s job data serves as a reminder that economic momentum doesn’t vanish overnight—it tapers, recalibrates, and shifts. For businesses and workers alike, staying flexible and responsive to these trends will be crucial in the coming months.

Stay tuned to Swap Hunter for regular updates on the economy, job market trends, and how these shifts impact your career, investments, and day-to-day decisions.

Have thoughts on how these trends could affect your industry? Drop your insights in the comments or connect with us on social media.

Low Interest Rates at the Banks.

9. August 202026. July 2020 by Christopher Smilas

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Low Interest Rates at the Banks.

26. July 20202. March 2020 by Christopher Smilas

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7. March 202125. February 2020 by Christopher Smilas

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Stock Market Overview

US stocks saw limited movements on Monday, with major indexes holding near their record highs from last week. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all traded flat as investors awaited fresh catalysts, particularly from:

Trade these data points with Swap Hunter by your side and you are going to have an edge on your Broker, your Bank and your Colleagues.

Key Market Highlights:

NAHB Housing Market Index – August 2025

Breakdown of Housing Data:

Builder Incentives & Pricing Trends:

Outlook

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. What is the current United States Stock Market Index level in August 2025?

2. Why are US stocks trading flat despite strong AI and chipmaker performance?

3. What does the NAHB Housing Market Index measure?

4. Why did the NAHB Housing Market Index fall in August 2025?

5. Are US home builders offering more incentives in 2025?

Technical Analysis: S&P 500 – August 2025

Key Technical Levels

Moving Averages

Momentum Indicators

Chart Outlook

🔼 Top Currency Gainers

🇦🇺 Australian Dollar (AUD) – +0.30%

💵 Dollar Index (DXY) – +0.02%

🔽 Top Currency Losers

🇰🇷 South Korean Won (KRW) – -0.26%

🇯🇵 Japanese Yen (JPY) – -0.18%

🇬🇧 British Pound (GBP) – -0.10%

🇪🇺 Euro (EUR) – -0.03%

📊 FX Performance Summary

💬 Market Outlook

📝 Stay Updated

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Mortgage Applications See Strongest Weekly Rise in a Month

Conclusion

🌍 Global Themes

🇺🇸 United States

🇨🇦 Canada

🇲🇽 Mexico & 🇧🇷 Brazil

🇪🇺 Europe

🌏 Asia-Pacific

🇺🇸 U.S. Manufacturing Remains in Contraction

Key Highlights:

🇯🇵 Japan Inflation Eases, Core CPI Surges

Breakdown:

🇩🇪 German Producer Prices Drop Sharply

Details:

📊 U.S. Markets Set for a Lower Open

📌 Final Thoughts

Why Cash and FX Matter

General Guidelines Based on Investor Type

1. Long-Term Investors (Passive Strategy)

2. Active Traders and Speculators

3. Conservative/Wealth Preservation Investors

When to Increase Your Cash/FX Position

Rule of Thumb

Final Thoughts

How to Trade Forex and Jobs Data with Swap Hunter

Key Highlights:

Sector-Specific Trends

What This Means for Workers

Implications for Markets and Policy

Final Thoughts US Jobs Data

Low Interest Rates on your Savings? Swap Hunter have Developed a Trading System that Generates Daily Interest on Trading Positions in the Forex, Stock and Commodities Markets.

Outperform Low Interest Rates offered by your Bank by using the Swap Hunter Trading System.

Get Paid Daily Interest on your Trades and Investments.

Low Interest Rates on your Savings? Swap Hunter have Developed a Trading System that Generates Daily Interest on Trading Positions in the Forex, Stock and Commodities Markets.

Outperform Low Interest Rates offered by your Bank by using the Swap Hunter Trading System.

Get Paid Daily Interest on your Trades and Investments.

Recommended Brokers.

The Swap Hunter Trading System generates interest on your trades every day.

By simultaneously buying and selling correlated assets (hedging), will lower the risk of online trading. This gives you an Edge Over the Market. And your broker will be paying you overnight Swaps instead of charging you Overnight Fees to hold on to your trades.

Low Interest Rates on your Savings?
Swap Hunter have Developed a Trading System that Generates Daily Interest on Trading Positions in the Forex, Stock and Commodities Markets.

Low Interest Rates on your Savings?
Swap Hunter have Developed a Trading System that Generates Daily Interest on Trading Positions in the Forex, Stock and Commodities Markets.

By simultaneously buying and selling correlated assets (hedging), will lower the risk of online trading.

This gives you an Edge Over the Market.

And your broker will be paying you overnight Swaps instead of charging you Overnight Fees to hold on to your trades.