US Stocks Surge as Tariff Truce and Fed Rate Cut Hopes Fuel Rally | June 2025 Market Update

30. June 2025 by Analyst

US stock market chart hitting record highs in June 2025

📈 US Stocks Surge as Fed Cut Hopes and Trade Truce Drive Gains

Published: June 30, 2025
Category: Markets & Economy

US equities rallied on Monday, extending last week’s gains as easing trade tensions and growing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve pushed major indexes to record highs.

🔼 Major Indexes Reach New Highs

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100: Up 0.5% each
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Gained over 200 points

📰 Market Drivers

1. 🇺🇸 US-China Trade Agreement

The US and China announced a formal agreement to prevent new tariffs, with President Trump showing flexibility on the July 9 deadline for reintroducing reciprocal tariffs. This marks a major de-escalation from past tensions, when tariffs reached up to 145%.

2. 🏦 Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise

Investor confidence is rising as soft inflation data and global uncertainties increase the likelihood of multiple Fed rate cuts in 2025.

3. 💻 Tech Sector Strengthens

Canada scrapped its digital services tax, boosting US tech stocks and reopening trade talks.
Meta and Alphabet shares rose 1%.
Juniper Networks soared 9% after the DoJ approved its HP acquisition, settling a legal dispute.

💶 Eurozone: Euro Hits $1.17 as German Inflation Falls

The euro rose to its highest level since September 2021, trading just above $1.17, bolstered by:

Weaker US dollar from dovish Fed sentiment
Fiscal concerns in the US
Cooling inflation in Germany

🇩🇪 Germany Inflation Back to Target

According to the Federal Statistical Office:

CPI fell to 2.0% in June, down from 2.1%, beating forecasts
Core inflation eased to 2.7%, a 3-month low
Food inflation slowed to 2.0%, energy prices dropped -3.5%
Monthly CPI was flat, following a 0.1% rise in May

🏦 ECB Policy Outlook

While inflation edged up slightly in France, Italy, and Spain, the ECB maintains a cautious approach.
Vice President Luis de Guindos reaffirmed that the current policy is appropriate, but warned of the need for flexibility amid economic uncertainty.

Markets continue to price the ECB’s terminal rate around 1.75%–1.80%.

📊 Key Takeaways

✅ US markets are responding positively to reduced geopolitical risk and a potential easing cycle from the Fed.
✅ Eurozone inflation data provides mixed signals but supports a stable ECB outlook.
✅ Tech stocks may continue to benefit from regulatory relief and favorable trade shifts.

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U.S. Housing Market Slumps in May 2025 | Fed Dovish, Tech Stocks Rally

25. June 2025 by Analyst

🏠 U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in May 2025 as Buyers Retreat Amid High Mortgage Rates

New single-family home sales in the U.S. fell sharply in May 2025, dropping 13.7% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 623,000 units, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This marks the biggest decline since June 2022, far below market expectations of around 700,000 units.

📉 Housing Market Breakdown:

South: -21% to 349,000 units

West: -5.4% to 159,000 units

Midwest: -7.1% to 78,000 units

Median home price: $507,000 (+1.4%)

Supply: 9.8 months at current sales pace

High mortgage rates and economic uncertainty are causing many potential buyers to delay purchases, signaling a cooling housing market despite rising prices.

📊 Stock Market Update: Tech Leads, Real Estate Lags

The S&P 500 rose 0.2% on Wednesday, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.4%, inching closer to a new all-time high. The Dow Jones remained near flatline levels.

Top Performers:

Nvidia: +1.3%

Apple: +1.2%

Microsoft: +0.6%

Amazon: +1.1%

Meta: +0.2%

Underperformers:

Real Estate sector (reflecting weak housing data)

FedEx: -5% after disappointing profit forecast

Investor sentiment was buoyed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish testimony before Congress, which reinforced expectations of at least two interest rate cuts by the end of 2025. In addition, a ceasefire between Iran and Israel helped calm global markets.

💵 Dollar Index Holds as Fed Signals Policy Flexibility

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) held steady at 98 on Wednesday, pausing its recent slide to multi-year lows.

Key Drivers:

Powell’s remarks: Economic uncertainty justifies patience on interest rates

Disinflation outlook: Maintained as long as no new tariffs are introduced (watch for July 9 deadline)

Energy prices: Falling due to stability in the Strait of Hormuz, boosting bets on slowing inflation

Meanwhile, other major economies are also leaning toward monetary easing, helping to stabilize the greenback despite rate cut expectations in the U.S.

📌 Final Thoughts: What to Watch Next

Will housing weakness extend into summer?

Can tech continue to lead the market higher?

July 9 tariff decision will be critical for inflation and Fed policy

Watch for inflation and jobs data to confirm (or challenge) rate cut bets

📬 Stay tuned for more market insights and economic updates.
📢 Don’t forget to share this post and leave a comment below with your thoughts on where the market is headed next!

European Markets Rally as Israel-Iran Ceasefire Holds & Fed Hints at Rate Cuts

25. June 2025 by Analyst

European Stocks Climb as Ceasefire Holds, Fed Dovish Tone Lifts Sentiment

Markets held onto their upward momentum Wednesday, with the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 indices both rising 0.3%, extending gains of over 1% from the previous session. Investors were buoyed by easing geopolitical tensions and growing hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut later this year.

🌍 Geopolitical Calm Brings Relief

The recent ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to be holding, providing a much-needed breather for global markets. The truce—brokered by the United States—has helped temper fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East, a key concern for global investors in recent weeks.

📉 Fed Signals Potential Rate Cuts

Further optimism was driven by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who gave testimony before the U.S. Congress on Tuesday. His remarks were widely interpreted as dovish, increasing expectations that the Fed could cut interest rates later this year, providing additional support to financial markets.

🔍 Focus Shifts to NATO Summit

Investors are now watching the NATO summit in the Netherlands, where discussions around defense spending and geopolitical stability are taking center stage. Any shifts in policy or alliances could have broader market implications.

Winners on the European Stock Front

Several major companies posted strong gains amid the upbeat mood:

Ferrari (RACE): +3.6%
Stellantis (STLA): +3.7%
ASML Holding (ASML): +2.3%
Philips (PHG): +2.0%
Rheinmetall (RHM): +1.5%

These moves reflect renewed investor confidence across a range of sectors, from luxury autos to defense and technology.

Crude Oil Bounces Back After Heavy Selloff

WTI crude oil prices rebounded above $65 per barrel on Wednesday, recovering some ground after a 13% plunge over the prior two sessions—the steepest two-day fall since 2022.

🔥 What’s Driving Oil?

The ceasefire in the Middle East is reducing supply disruption fears.
President Trump signaled support for China—Iran’s top buyer—to continue importing Iranian oil, potentially reshaping the U.S. sanctions landscape.
Despite this, a preliminary U.S. intelligence report warned that American strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities only delayed the program by a few months, keeping geopolitical risk on the table.

📉 Supply Tightens

Fresh industry data revealed a 4.28 million barrel drop in U.S. crude inventories last week, smashing forecasts for just a 0.6 million barrel draw. This marks the fourth consecutive weekly decline and signals tightening supply conditions.

🧠 Final Thoughts

Markets are finding their footing amid complex global dynamics. While the ceasefire and dovish Fed tone provide near-term relief, investors remain cautious as geopolitical risks and inflation pressures continue to shape the global economic outlook.

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📰 Market Update: US Strikes Iran, Oil Prices Jump, Japan’s Manufacturing Recovers

23. June 2025 by Analyst

June 23, 2025 – Global markets are reacting sharply after a surprise escalation in the Middle East, pushing oil prices higher and rattling investor confidence. Meanwhile, fresh data from Japan hints at a modest recovery in the manufacturing sector.

🇺🇸 US Stock Futures Edge Lower After Strikes on Iran

Stock futures dipped early Monday after the United States launched airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. The move, which came sooner than expected, has raised fears of retaliation from Tehran and broader regional instability.

President Donald Trump, who had suggested on Friday he’d wait “two weeks” before making a decision, warned Saturday that “there will be either peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days.”

What’s at Stake:

Potential Iranian retaliation targeting US assets or personnel
Disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz
Heightened volatility across energy and equity markets

🛢️ Oil Prices Surge on Supply Fears

WTI crude oil rose over 2% to $75.90 per barrel, reaching its highest level since January 2025. The market is responding to concerns that Iran may restrict oil exports or block the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial artery for about 20% of global crude oil flows.

Iran’s parliament has reportedly voted to close the Strait, though final approval is pending from the country’s Supreme National Security Council and Supreme Leader.

📉 Market Caution Builds

Major US indexes ended last week little changed, as investors braced for worsening geopolitical tensions and growing economic uncertainty. Risk appetite remains subdued as markets await further developments in the Middle East.

🇯🇵 Japan’s Manufacturing Sector Returns to Growth

On a more positive note, Japan’s Manufacturing PMI from au Jibun Bank rose to 50.4 in June, up from 49.4 in May, marking the first expansion since May 2024. source: S&P Global

Key Highlights:

Output and inventory levels rose
Employment edged higher
Demand remained weak, especially due to new US tariffs
Supplier delivery times lengthened, signaling supply chain pressure

While input cost inflation held near a 14-month low, output prices remained among the softest seen in four years. Business sentiment was largely unchanged and still below the historical average.

📌 Final Takeaway

The Middle East situation is developing rapidly and will likely remain the dominant market driver in the short term. Investors should keep an eye on:

Iran’s next move
Oil market dynamics
Safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar

Meanwhile, Japan’s modest manufacturing recovery offers a sliver of optimism amid global turbulence.

📈 Market Update: Yen Recovers on BOJ Inflation Signals, Bitcoin Dips Below $100K

23. June 2025 by Analyst

🇯🇵 Japanese Yen Strengthens as BOJ Eyes Inflation Risks

The Japanese yen gained strength on Friday, trading near ¥145 per U.S. dollar, as Japan’s core inflation surged for the third consecutive month. The latest reading came in at 3.7%, marking the highest level since January 2023 and reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could tighten monetary policy further.

Key Highlights:

BOJ keeps interest rate at 0.5% but signals openness to further hikes.
Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized a data-driven approach.
Companies continue passing wage increases onto prices, keeping inflation sticky.
Despite Friday’s rebound, the yen is still down ~1% for the week due to safe-haven flows into the U.S. dollar, amid rising geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran.

📊 Takeaway: A stronger yen may be on the horizon if inflation remains persistent and the BOJ follows through with rate hikes. However, global risk sentiment and U.S. dollar strength are key counterweights.

₿ Bitcoin Slips Below $100K Amid Broader Market Uncertainty

On Sunday, June 22, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) fell to $99,449, marking a 2.15% decline from the previous session. Over the past month, Bitcoin has lost 7.32%, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment across markets.

Bitcoin Performance Overview:

Daily: -2.15%
4-week: -7.32%
12-month: +57.06%

Price Forecasts (via Trading Economics):

End of Q2 2025: $102,869
12-Month Outlook: $100,787

💡 Outlook: Despite short-term dips, long-term fundamentals and macro trends suggest Bitcoin may stabilize or climb moderately in the coming months. However, global tensions and central bank policies could add continued volatility.

🌍 Final Thoughts

Both traditional currencies like the yen and digital assets like Bitcoin are being shaped by a complex macroeconomic environment, featuring persistent inflation, central bank shifts, and geopolitical unrest.

What to Watch:

Next BOJ policy meeting and inflation reports.
U.S. Federal Reserve commentary on rates and inflation.
Developments in the Middle East and their impact on safe-haven assets.

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🌍 Market Update: European Stocks Dip Amid Geopolitical Risks, Fed Decision in Focus

18. June 2025 by Analyst

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European Markets Open Lower

European equity markets were set to open lower on Wednesday as investors digested rising geopolitical tensions and awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

Euro Stoxx 50 futures slipped 0.3%
Stoxx 600 futures edged down 0.2%

Sentiment was hit by comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and threatened to strike Supreme Leader Khamenei, further escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Investors are also eyeing:

UK inflation data
Sweden’s Riksbank policy decision

Both could influence European interest rate expectations.

📉 Japan’s Exports Decline Amid Tariff Pressures

Japan’s exports fell 1.7% year-on-year in May 2025 to a four-month low of JPY 8.13 trillion, reversing a 2% gain in April. This marked the first decline since September 2024.

Shipments to the U.S.: ↓ 11.1%
Exports to China: ↓ 8.8%
Increases: EU (+4.9%), Russia (+5.2%), ASEAN (+0.1%)

Trade War Impact

The decline came as U.S. tariffs bite, especially on autos, auto parts, and chip machinery. Japan is seeking exemption from 25% U.S. auto tariffs, while Trump has doubled duties on steel and aluminum to 50%. A 24% retaliatory tariff from Japan is scheduled for July 9, unless a deal is reached.

🪙 Gold Slips as Dollar Gains, But Central Banks Remain Bullish

Gold prices edged lower to around $3,380/oz on Wednesday. A stronger U.S. dollar weighed on prices, even as Middle East tensions drove safe-haven demand.

Key Drivers:

Israel conducted strikes near Tehran
Iran launched missiles in retaliation
Trump held a national security meeting, sparking fears of U.S. military involvement

Meanwhile, a World Gold Council survey revealed:

95% of central banks expect global gold reserves to rise
43% plan to increase their own holdings — a record high

💵 U.S. Dollar Eases After Tuesday Surge

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dipped slightly to 98.6 after a near 1% gain on Tuesday, driven by safe-haven flows due to the Israel-Iran conflict.

What to Watch:

Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady
Market focus is on forward guidance
Upcoming U.S. data: housing starts and jobless claims

Despite weaker retail sales in May, consumer spending remains resilient, underpinned by strong wage growth.

📌 Takeaway

Global markets remain on edge as geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and monetary policy uncertainty collide. Investors are bracing for potential volatility spikes driven by:

Fed’s policy stance
Ongoing Middle East conflict
Looming U.S.-Japan tariff deadlines

Stay tuned for more updates and subscribe for a consultation from Swap Hunter and real-time market insights.

How Much of Your Portfolio Should Be in Cash or Forex?

14. June 2025 by Analyst

When building or managing a portfolio, one of the most overlooked but crucial components is your cash and FX (foreign exchange) allocation. While many investors focus on stocks, crypto, or real estate, holding the right amount of liquid assets can significantly enhance your financial stability, flexibility, and overall strategy.

Why Cash and FX Matter

Cash provides liquidity. It allows you to take advantage of opportunities quickly, cover unexpected expenses, and weather downturns without panic selling. FX (foreign currencies like USD, EUR, or JPY) can serve as a hedge, especially if you’re exposed to international assets or geopolitical risk.

General Guidelines Based on Investor Type

1. Long-Term Investors (Passive Strategy)

If you’re primarily focused on long-term growth with a buy-and-hold strategy, a smaller cash allocation is typical.

Portfolio Size	Suggested Cash/FX Allocation
<$100,000	5% – 10%
$100,000+	2% – 5%

Purpose: Emergency liquidity, buying dips, or portfolio rebalancing.

2. Active Traders and Speculators

If you trade crypto, stocks, or CFDs, you need more liquidity to remain agile.

Strategy Type	Suggested Cash/FX Allocation
High-frequency trading	5% – 20%
Swing trader	10% – 30%
CFD/multi-asset trading	20% – 40%

Why more cash? To manage margin, fund trades quickly, and handle drawdowns.

3. Conservative/Wealth Preservation Investors

Age and risk appetite affect how much cash you should hold.

Age Group	Suggested Cash Allocation
Under 40	5% – 10%
40–60	10% – 20%
60+	20% – 40%

Purpose: Reduce volatility, maintain access to funds, and protect principal.

When to Increase Your Cash/FX Position

Anticipating a market downturn or recession
Planning for a large purchase or investment
Experiencing high portfolio volatility
Preparing to rebalance or rotate assets

Rule of Thumb

“Keep enough in cash and FX to sleep well at night, but not so much that inflation eats it away.”

Final Thoughts

Your ideal cash or FX allocation depends on your goals, timeline, and risk tolerance. Revisit it regularly, especially in changing market conditions. Liquidity is power—but too much can be a drag on growth.

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📊 Market Calm Before the Storm: Why Swap-Hunter Thrives in Uncertainty

9. June 2025 by Analyst

As markets await U.S.–China trade talks and critical inflation data, Swap-Hunter’s trading system gives you the tactical edge to profit—no matter the volatility.

Global stock markets opened cautiously this week, with U.S. futures hovering near flat. For many traders, this signals indecision. But at Swap-Hunter, this is where our trading system shines.

Whether it’s geopolitical risk, inflation uncertainty, or headline-driven swings, our system thrives on structure—not speculation.

🌍 What’s Moving the Market This Week?

U.S.–China Trade Talks (June 9) – High-level negotiations resume in London.
CPI and PPI Inflation Data – Key indicators ahead of the Fed’s June meeting.
Fed Rate Decision (June 17–18) – Rate cut speculation building.
Geopolitical Risk – Domestic protests and National Guard deployment add market tension.

🔄 What This Means for Traders

While traditional systems wait for breakouts or trend confirmations, Swap-Hunter works within the noise. Our system capitalizes on:

Flat Markets – Ideal for range-bound swaps and intraday structure plays.
Volatility Surges – Our setup detects liquidity zones that react to news-based momentum.
Institutional Footprints – Identify where real volume is being deployed—not just where price moves.

📈 S&P 500 Snapshot

The S&P recently reclaimed the 6,000 level and is now just 2.3% off all-time highs. Rather than chase tops, our system monitors rotational liquidity and traps.

Example chart: Rotation zones identified by the Swap-Hunter system

⚙️ Why Swap-Hunter Is Built for This

Markets are not always trending. In fact, they spend most of their time consolidating. This is where Swap-Hunter’s rules-based, volatility-adaptive system gives you:

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Tags: U.S.–China Trade, CPI, PPI, Fed Meeting, Trading System, Swap-Hunter, S&P 500, Market Structure

US Job Data Cools Less Than Expected in May – What It Means for Markets and Workers

9. June 2025 by Analyst

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In a surprising turn, the latest US job data suggest that the labour market is more resilient than analysts had projected. According to the recent payroll data, US nonfarm employment increased by 139,000 jobs in May, slightly lower than April’s revised figure of 147,000 but higher than the consensus estimate of 130,000.

This unexpected uptick challenges earlier concerns of a sharper slowdown, amid fears of new tariffs and broader economic headwinds. While the pace of job creation has softened, the labour market continues to send mixed signals that demand a closer look.

Key Highlights:

May Job Growth: +139K (vs. 130K expected)
April Revisions: Downwardly adjusted to +147K
Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.2%

Sector-Specific Trends

Employment growth wasn’t evenly distributed. Some industries fared better than others:

Healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance showed steady gains, signaling continued demand for services and care-related roles.
Manufacturing and federal government jobs experienced a decline—potential early signs of budget tightening or shifting production dynamics due to supply chain constraints and tariff concerns.

This pattern reinforces the notion that while the US job engine is still running, it’s shifting gears.

What This Means for Workers

For job seekers, the positive news is that the unemployment rate remains stable, and key service sectors continue to hire. However, those in more cyclical or government-tied industries may want to stay alert to shifting priorities and potential policy changes.

Implications for Markets and Policy

Wall Street had braced for a sharper pullback in hiring, so this report could bring temporary relief. Still, policymakers at the Federal Reserve will likely keep a close eye on wage trends and broader economic indicators before making any interest rate adjustments.

If the economy continues to tread this fine line—neither overheating nor collapsing—it may lend weight to the case for a “soft landing” scenario, which economists have debated for months.

Final Thoughts US Jobs Data

May’s job data serves as a reminder that economic momentum doesn’t vanish overnight—it tapers, recalibrates, and shifts. For businesses and workers alike, staying flexible and responsive to these trends will be crucial in the coming months.

Stay tuned to Swap Hunter for regular updates on the economy, job market trends, and how these shifts impact your career, investments, and day-to-day decisions.

Have thoughts on how these trends could affect your industry? Drop your insights in the comments or connect with us on social media.

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7. June 20257. June 2025 by Analyst

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