As it continues to fight double-digit inflation, the Bank of England is anticipated to hike the United Kingdom interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% in May 2023. This will be the eleventh consecutive rate increase and drive borrowing rates to new highs not seen since 2008. In March, the UK’s annual inflation rate was 10.1%, which is five times greater than the 2% target set by the central bank. Investors will be keenly monitoring the central bank’s future plans to determine whether decision-makers plan to soon cease the tightening cycle or continue raising rates. The BoE will also release its quarterly economic estimates, and most investors believe that the GDP and inflation will be revised higher in 2023. Source: Bank of England
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In March 2023, Germany industrial production fell 3.4% month-over-month, reversing a 2.1% increase in February that had been upwardly corrected, and worse than the 1.3% decline predicted by the market. The manufacturing of motor vehicles and their components fell 6.5%, following a 6.9% increase in February, making the automotive industry the biggest drag. Construction (-4.6%), manufacturing of machinery and equipment (-3.4%), and the production of capital goods (-4.4%), intermediate goods (-3.5%), and consumer goods (-0.1%) all experienced declines. But energy output increased by 0.8%. Industrial output decreased 3.3% when construction and energy were excluded. Production in Q1 2023 was 2.5% greater than it was in the previous quarter. Source: Federal Statistical Office
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Biden polls behind Trump (45-38%) & DeSantis (42-37%) in head-to-head matchups, although there are large numbers of undecided voters. >60% of Americans think Biden does not have the physical stamina to serve effectively as president.
The ISM Services PMI increased to 51.9 in April of 2023 from 51.2 in March, and slightly higher than market expectations of 51.8. It marks a fourth consecutive month of growth in the services sector, prompted by a faster increase in new orders (56.1 vs 52.2), a rebound in new export orders (60.9 vs 43.7) and one of the fastest supplier delivery performance since December 2015 (48.6 vs 45.8) due to ongoing improvements in both capacity and supply logistics.
On the other hand, production rose at the slowest pace since May 2020 (52 vs 55.4) and employment growth also slowed (50.8 vs 51.3). Meanwhile, price pressures were slightly higher (59.6 vs 59.5) and backlog of orders fell less (49.7 vs 48.5). “The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions; however, some respondents are wary of potential headwinds associated with inflation and an economic slowdown”, Anthony Nieves, Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee said. source: Institute for Supply Management
Inflation rate decreased 6% in February to 5% in March 2023, which was below market expectations of 5.2% and the lowest level since May 2021.
Food prices increased less quickly than they did in February (9.5% vs. 8.5%), while energy costs decreased (-6.4% vs. +5.2%), particularly for gasoline (-17.4%) and fuel oil (-14.2%). The cost of used automobiles and trucks also decreased (-11.6% vs. -13.6%) at the same time.
On the other hand, housing inflation, which makes up over 30% of the CPI basket overall, continued to rise (8.2% vs. 8.1%). The CPI increased by 0.1% from the previous month, which was less than the 0.2% consensus estimate. Higher prices for housing (0.6%) offset a 3.5% decline.
United States Inflation Rate
In the United States, unadjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers is based on the prices of a market basket of: Food (14% of total weight); Energy (8%); Commodities Less Food & Energy Commodities (21%) and Services Less Energy Services (57%). The last category is divided by: Shelter (32%), Medical Care Services (7%) and Transportation Services (6%).
As the results of the midterm elections began to come in on Wednesday, US stock futures fluctuated between modest gains and losses. Although the contest is still close and the vote count is ongoing, Republicans are probably going to take the House while Democrats are going to maintain the Senate. Stocks continued to rise in regular trade Tuesday, with the Dow rising 1%, the S&P 500 rising 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite rising 0.5%. The October inflation report, which is due tomorrow, is also anticipated by investors for clues as to how much more the Fed might tighten financial conditions in an effort to cool an overheating economy. After missing projections for revenue and earnings for the most recent quarter, Disney shares fell more than 6% in extended trade.
Prices for commodities have benefited from various supply chain changes, primarily in the services sector. However, a decline in insurance firms’ retained earnings this year as a result of high health care consumption rates in 2021 and strong profit margins from 2020 might drive down health expenses and inflation starting in October.
Inflation Rate Set to slow Down in the United States
US Inflation Rate
United States Inflation Rate
In the United States, unadjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers is based on the prices of a market basket of: food (14 percent of total weight), energy (9.3 percent), commodities less food and energy commodities (19.4 percent) and services less energy services (57.3 percent). The last category is divided by: shelter (32.1 percent), medical care services (5.8 percent) and transportation services (5.5 percent).
As the results of the midterm elections began to come in on Wednesday, United States stock market fluctuated between modest gains and losses. Although the contest is still close and the vote count is ongoing, Republicans are probably going to take the House while Democrats are going to maintain the Senate. Stocks continued to rise in regular trade Tuesday, with the Dow rising 1%, the S&P 500 rising 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite rising 0.5%. The October inflation report, which is due tomorrow, is also anticipated by investors for clues as to how much more the Fed might tighten financial conditions in an effort to cool an overheating economy. After missing projections for revenue and earnings for the most recent quarter, Disney shares fell more than 6% in extended trade.
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Elon Musk Memes With Kanye, Putin And Trump . Also facing Potential Federal Investigation
Elon Musk, the richest man in the world, had yet another eventful week, hanging out with Kanye West despite the rapper receiving criticism for a string of anti-Semitic remarks, exchanging jabs with Dmitry Medvedev, the former president of Russia, and possibly coming under investigation for national security.
After CNN reported on Friday that the company has said it can no longer afford to supply the service, Musk revealed on
Monday that SpaceX had agreed to continue paying for StarLink in Ukraine. The company had withdrawn its request for $380 million in funding from the Pentagon.
Tuesday: Musk tweets and later deletes a meme of himself teaming up with West and former president Donald Trump, who founded Truth Social, as the “Three Musketeers,” overlaid with their respective social media platforms. Musk is celebrating West’s agreement to buy the right-wing social media platform Parler.
Wednesday: Musk resumes his day job as CEO of Tesla, delivering third-quarter earnings results that fell short of expectations and making a number of brazen claims during a conference call with investors. He claims that Tesla could eventually surpass the combined market capitalization of the two largest companies in the world, Apple and Saudi Aramco (Tesla is currently worth 15% of those two combined).
Thursday: According to Bloomberg, the Biden Administration is considering conducting a national security review of Musk and his companies in light of his connections to Middle Eastern governments, which helped to partially finance his acquisition of Twitter, and his apparent friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Washington Post reports that Musk plans to fire about 75% of Twitter’s staff when he takes over.
Wednesday: Musk resumes his day job as CEO of Tesla, delivering third-quarter earnings results that fell short of expectations and making a number of brazen claims during a conference call with investors. He claims that Tesla could eventually surpass the combined market capitalization of the two largest companies in the world, Apple and Saudi Aramco (Tesla is currently worth 15% of those two combined).
Friday: As the day gets underway, Musk tweets his prediction that the current economic downturn will last until the beginning of 2024. CNN also reports that the Biden Administration has spoken with Musk about bringing StarLink to Iran, a surprising development given the long-standing animosity between the two men.
Wednesday: Musk resumes his day job as CEO of Tesla, delivering third-quarter earnings results that fell short of expectations and making a number of brazen claims during a conference call with investors. He claims that Tesla could eventually surpass the combined market capitalization of the two largest companies in the world, Apple and Saudi Aramco (Tesla is currently worth 15% of those two combined).
TANGENT Musk started tweeting @ Medvedev on Thursday amid growing scrutiny of his ties to Russia, complimenting the Putin ally on a “very nice troll” for a joke about the departing U.K. Prime Minister and asking how the fight in Bakhmut was going. Medvedev replied, “see you in Moscow on the Victory Day!”
A SURPRISE FACT In addition to being the billionaire visionary behind the sixth largest public company in the world, Tesla, and a $125 billion private corporation, SpaceX, Musk is also possibly the most popular Twitter troll. The South African-born businessman made headlines earlier this month when he offered Russia peace terms that were vastly different from those that Ukraine or its allies, including the United States, have advocated. He suggested that Ukraine cede some of its internationally recognized territory to its invading neighbor. Musk refuted the claim made by Eurasia Group founder Ian Bremmer last week that he had borrowed the terms from a recent conversation he had with Putin.
RARELY KNOWN BACKGROUND Our calculations show that Musk still owns the world’s largest fortune by a considerable margin, but since last November, he has lost more than $100 billion, mostly due to a sharp decline in the value of Tesla’s stock. Investor retaliation against Musk’s sale of billions of dollars’ worth of shares to fund his purchase of Twitter has resulted in a significant decline in the company’s stock. In a note to clients on Friday, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives referred to the Twitter deal as a “difficult position for Tesla investors.”
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On Thursday, European markets were expected to open weakly, continuing a worldwide stock selloff fuelled by rising bond yields and increased economic uncertainty. Investors feared that continued monetary tightening and soaring inflation would push the world economy into a recession. The hope for increased corporate profits and the positive mood brought on by the UK’s policy changes also started to wane. Early trading saw a 0.3% decline in the DAX futures and a 0.2% decline in the Stoxx 600 futures.
DAX
Highs and low’s of the European Markets biggest index.
The conclusion of this quarter is projected to see the Germany Stock Market Index (DE40) trading at 11956.47 points based on projections from Trading Economics’ global macro models and market analysts. Looking ahead, we predict it will trade at 10621.89 in a year.
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