- US equities were mostly flat as traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision.
- S&P 500: +0.1%
- Dow Jones: +90 points
- Nasdaq: Near unchanged
- Expectations: Markets are widely pricing in a 25 bp rate cut on Wednesday. Focus is shifting to the Fed’s updated economic projections, especially regarding the pace of policy easing in 2026.
Labor Market
- JOLTS (Sept & Oct): Job openings came in above expectations, signaling still-firm demand for labor.
- ADP employment (weekly average through Nov 22):
- Private employers added ~4,750 jobs per week, ending three straight periods of declines.
- Suggests job losses eased in mid-November.
- Official November payrolls:
- –32,000 jobs, largest drop since March 2023.
- Driven mainly by a 120,000-job decline at small businesses. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Corporate Highlights
- Nvidia: –1%
- Reports that China may restrict domestic chip purchases.
- This follows President Trump’s approval for Nvidia to sell H200 chips to China under the condition that 25% of revenue goes to the U.S. government.
- Home Depot: –1%+
- Issued weaker-than-expected 2026 earnings growth guidance.
- M&A Focus:
- Investors monitoring the Paramount–Netflix bidding war for Warner Bros. source: Automatic Data Processing, Inc.
Germany – Export Data (October 2025)
- Exports: +0.1% MoM to €131.3B, a 6-month high (vs. –0.2% expected).
- Regional breakdown:
- EU exports: +2.7%
- Euro area: +2.5%
- Non-euro EU: +3.1%
- Third-country exports: –3.3%
- US: –7.8% (impact of ongoing tariffs; follows +11.9% in Sept)
- UK: –6.5%
- China: –5.8%
- EU exports: +2.7%
- YTD (Jan–Oct 2025): €1.31T in exports, +1.1% YoY. source: Federal Statistical Office
