UK Inflation Jumps to 3.8% in July 2025, Highest in Over a Year

The UK inflation rate rose to 3.8% in July 2025, marking its highest level since January 2024. This was up from 3.6% in June and slightly above market forecasts of 3.7%, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The main driver of the increase came from the transport sector, where prices climbed 3.2% compared to 1.7% in June. Airfares surged by a sharp 30.2%, largely influenced by the timing of the school summer holidays. Higher motor fuel costs, sea fares, and roadside recovery services also pushed transport inflation higher.

Other notable contributors included restaurants and hotels, where prices rose 3.4% versus 2.6% in June, largely due to more expensive overnight hotel stays. Food and non-alcoholic beverages also accelerated, rising 4.9% compared to 4.5% the previous month.

On the other hand, housing and household services eased slightly, providing some relief. Inflation in this category dropped to 6.2% from 6.7%, reflecting softer growth in owner-occupiers’ housing costs and rents.

On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.1% in July, defying expectations of a 0.1% decline. However, this was slower than June’s 0.3% rise. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, also edged up to 3.8% from 3.7%. source: Office for National Statistics

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    UK Retail Sales Edge Up But Challenges Persist

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    Excerpt:
    The CBI’s retail sales index rose slightly in July 2025 but stayed weaker than expected, showing UK retailers are still battling tough economic conditions. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s import growth slowed in June as demand shifted across sectors and trading partners.


    📉 UK Retail Sales: Modest Improvement in July

    The Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) latest monthly retail sales gauge brought a hint of relief for UK retailers. The index climbed to -34 in July, improving from June’s 17-month low of -46. However, this figure still missed analysts’ expectations of -26, underlining how high prices and ongoing economic uncertainty continue to drag on consumer spending.

    Retail sales volumes have now fallen for ten consecutive months, reflecting the squeeze on household budgets. Looking ahead, retailers are slightly more optimistic about August, with the measure of expected sales rising to -31, compared to -49 a month earlier.


    🌏 Hong Kong Imports: Growth Cools in June

    Hong Kong’s imports climbed 11.1% year-on-year to $476.7 billion in June 2025, according to the Census and Statistics Department. While this marks another month of growth, it was the slowest rate in five months, down from May’s sharp 18.9% rise.

    Imports surged from Vietnam (+50.6%), the United Kingdom (+44.7%), mainland China (+17.3%), Thailand (+15.9%) and the United States (+3.9%). However, imports from South Korea saw a sharp decline (-27.1%).

    By product category, there were broad gains in key sectors:

    • Electrical machinery, apparatus and parts rose 14.6% (vs 23.7% in May)
    • Telecommunications equipment increased 17.7%
    • Office machines and data processing equipment rose 9.8%
    • Miscellaneous manufactured articles grew 12.6%
    • Power-generating machinery jumped 38.7%

    In contrast, declines were recorded for non-metallic mineral manufactures (-15.6%), professional and scientific instruments (-9.4%) and petroleum-related products (-10.5%).


    📌 Sources

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