📰 Market Update: US Strikes Iran, Oil Prices Jump, Japan’s Manufacturing Recovers

23. June 2025 by Analyst

June 23, 2025 – Global markets are reacting sharply after a surprise escalation in the Middle East, pushing oil prices higher and rattling investor confidence. Meanwhile, fresh data from Japan hints at a modest recovery in the manufacturing sector.

🇺🇸 US Stock Futures Edge Lower After Strikes on Iran

Stock futures dipped early Monday after the United States launched airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. The move, which came sooner than expected, has raised fears of retaliation from Tehran and broader regional instability.

President Donald Trump, who had suggested on Friday he’d wait “two weeks” before making a decision, warned Saturday that “there will be either peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days.”

What’s at Stake:

Potential Iranian retaliation targeting US assets or personnel
Disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz
Heightened volatility across energy and equity markets

🛢️ Oil Prices Surge on Supply Fears

WTI crude oil rose over 2% to $75.90 per barrel, reaching its highest level since January 2025. The market is responding to concerns that Iran may restrict oil exports or block the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial artery for about 20% of global crude oil flows.

Iran’s parliament has reportedly voted to close the Strait, though final approval is pending from the country’s Supreme National Security Council and Supreme Leader.

📉 Market Caution Builds

Major US indexes ended last week little changed, as investors braced for worsening geopolitical tensions and growing economic uncertainty. Risk appetite remains subdued as markets await further developments in the Middle East.

🇯🇵 Japan’s Manufacturing Sector Returns to Growth

On a more positive note, Japan’s Manufacturing PMI from au Jibun Bank rose to 50.4 in June, up from 49.4 in May, marking the first expansion since May 2024. source: S&P Global

Key Highlights:

Output and inventory levels rose
Employment edged higher
Demand remained weak, especially due to new US tariffs
Supplier delivery times lengthened, signaling supply chain pressure

While input cost inflation held near a 14-month low, output prices remained among the softest seen in four years. Business sentiment was largely unchanged and still below the historical average.

📌 Final Takeaway

The Middle East situation is developing rapidly and will likely remain the dominant market driver in the short term. Investors should keep an eye on:

Iran’s next move
Oil market dynamics
Safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar

Meanwhile, Japan’s modest manufacturing recovery offers a sliver of optimism amid global turbulence.

📈 Market Update: Yen Recovers on BOJ Inflation Signals, Bitcoin Dips Below $100K

23. June 2025 by Analyst

🇯🇵 Japanese Yen Strengthens as BOJ Eyes Inflation Risks

The Japanese yen gained strength on Friday, trading near ¥145 per U.S. dollar, as Japan’s core inflation surged for the third consecutive month. The latest reading came in at 3.7%, marking the highest level since January 2023 and reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could tighten monetary policy further.

Key Highlights:

BOJ keeps interest rate at 0.5% but signals openness to further hikes.
Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized a data-driven approach.
Companies continue passing wage increases onto prices, keeping inflation sticky.
Despite Friday’s rebound, the yen is still down ~1% for the week due to safe-haven flows into the U.S. dollar, amid rising geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran.

📊 Takeaway: A stronger yen may be on the horizon if inflation remains persistent and the BOJ follows through with rate hikes. However, global risk sentiment and U.S. dollar strength are key counterweights.

₿ Bitcoin Slips Below $100K Amid Broader Market Uncertainty

On Sunday, June 22, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) fell to $99,449, marking a 2.15% decline from the previous session. Over the past month, Bitcoin has lost 7.32%, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment across markets.

Bitcoin Performance Overview:

Daily: -2.15%
4-week: -7.32%
12-month: +57.06%

Price Forecasts (via Trading Economics):

End of Q2 2025: $102,869
12-Month Outlook: $100,787

💡 Outlook: Despite short-term dips, long-term fundamentals and macro trends suggest Bitcoin may stabilize or climb moderately in the coming months. However, global tensions and central bank policies could add continued volatility.

🌍 Final Thoughts

Both traditional currencies like the yen and digital assets like Bitcoin are being shaped by a complex macroeconomic environment, featuring persistent inflation, central bank shifts, and geopolitical unrest.

What to Watch:

Next BOJ policy meeting and inflation reports.
U.S. Federal Reserve commentary on rates and inflation.
Developments in the Middle East and their impact on safe-haven assets.

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💥 Michael Burry’s 13F Filing & Portfolio Strategy for a Recessionary Storm (2025 Outlook)

20. June 2025 by Analyst

In a year already fraught with volatility and economic uncertainty, it’s always reassuring to see our thesis confirmed by none other than the legendary Michael Burry. In his latest 13F filing, Burry’s portfolio adjustments echo what many of us have been preparing for: a recessionary reset, an asset repricing, and a rare opportunity to make serious money if you’re positioned right.

In this post, we break down:

Key takeaways from Burry’s 13F
What Buffett and BlackRock’s Larry Fink are signaling
Actionable strategies to optimize your portfolio
How to hedge risk, earn swaps, and profit from market chaos

📌 Key Takeaways from Michael Burry’s 13F Filing (Q1 2025)

Burry has trimmed exposure and taken a sharply defensive stance. Here’s what stands out:

✅ Fewer total holdings – indicating caution
🛡️ Defensive sectors (healthcare, utilities) are up
⚠️ Put options and hedges still in play – suggesting he expects more pain ahead

He’s not alone. Warren Buffett has raised cash, and Larry Fink is leaning heavily on bonds and ESG resilience. Big money is playing defense.

📉 Recession Indicators You Can’t Ignore

1. Inverted Yield Curve

This recession classic has been flashing red for over 12 months — historically a clear precursor to contraction.

2. LEI Index (Leading Economic Index)

Steep and consistent declines in this index are signaling weakening business confidence and slowing economic activity.

3. Consumer Debt Crisis

With rising credit card balances and growing delinquency rates, consumers are stretched thin — a recipe for demand destruction and asset repricing.

💄 Lipstick Effect & Changing Consumer Behavior

When people cut back, they still splurge on small luxuries — a phenomenon known as the lipstick effect. But this signals trouble:

Mid-tier retail is hurting
Premium brands see temporary support
Discretionary spending is collapsing under debt pressure

🧟‍♂️ Time to Cut the Zombies

Higher rates are suffocating “zombie companies” — those dependent on cheap debt to survive. Their fall will be sharp and painful… but it’s also a generational buying opportunity in real assets and healthy balance sheets.

📊 Sample Recession-Ready Portfolio Allocation

Here’s how to position your portfolio over the next 3–9 months:

Asset Class	Weight	Purpose
💵 Cash / Short-Term Bonds	20%	Dry powder & safety
🛡️ Defensive Equities	15%	Recession resilience (e.g. JNJ, KO, XLU)
💎 High-Quality Value Stocks	10%	Buffett-style buys
🥇 Commodities	15%	Hedge inflation, supply shocks
📉 Inverse ETFs & Puts	10%	Bear market hedge
🌍 Swap Hunter FX Positions	10%	Earn yield & hedge currency risks
📈 EM Equities (Targeted)	5%	High risk/reward bets
⚠️ Speculative / Event-driven	5%	Distressed tech, TLT, etc.
🪙 Gold Miners / Crypto Hedge	5%	Crisis alpha

🧠 Pro tip: Don’t hold inverse ETFs forever. Rotate and hedge tactically.

🔄 Recession Scenario Stress Test

Scenario	Equities	Commodities	Portfolio Impact
Mild Recession	-10%	+5–10%	+2–5% overall
Hard Landing	-25%	-10%	Flat to slightly down
Inflation Spike Returns	+5%	+15%	+7–10% gain

🧩 Bonus: Options Hedge Strategy

Build a recession collar:

✅ Long Puts on SPY/QQQ
✅ Short Calls on KO/JNJ (income)
✅ Long VIX Calls (spike protection)

✅ Conclusion: Don’t Just Survive—Position to Thrive

We’re entering a once-in-a-decade macro reset. Whether you’re following Burry’s lead, watching Buffet’s trims, or managing Swap Hunter FX trades — this is not the time to sit still. Position yourself defensively, keep dry powder ready, and don’t fear the correction — embrace it.

🚀 Ready to Take Action?

Want help building this portfolio, rebalancing your FX swaps, or optimizing your hedges? Let’s talk. Drop a comment, or reach out directly for custom strategy guidance.

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📉 Global Economic Update – June 20, 2025

20. June 2025 by Analyst

Stay informed with today’s key macroeconomic and market highlights from the U.S., Japan, Germany, and global equity markets.

🇺🇸 U.S. Manufacturing Remains in Contraction

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index held steady at -4.0 in June 2025, unchanged from May and below market expectations of -1. This marks another month of subdued regional manufacturing activity.

Key Highlights:

New orders stayed positive but weakened.
Shipments improved and turned positive.
Employment fell sharply, reaching its lowest level since May 2020, signaling a drop in factory jobs.
Price pressures eased slightly but remain historically high.
Outlook: Business optimism is waning, with fewer firms expecting growth in the next six months.

👉 Takeaway: Continued weakness in manufacturing could influence the Fed’s policy stance going forward.

🇯🇵 Japan Inflation Eases, Core CPI Surges

Japan’s annual inflation rate fell slightly to 3.5% in May 2025, down from 3.6% in the previous two months. However, core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) rose to 3.7%, the highest in over two years.

Breakdown:

Declines in prices for clothing, healthcare, and household goods.
Housing, recreation, and communications saw rising costs.
Rice prices skyrocketed over 100% year-over-year, showing limited impact from government price controls.

👉 Takeaway: Inflation remains a concern ahead of Japan’s summer elections, adding complexity to BoJ policy decisions.

🇩🇪 German Producer Prices Drop Sharply

Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 1.2% year-over-year in May 2025, marking the third straight month of decline and the sharpest drop since September 2024.

Details:

Energy prices fell sharply:
- Electricity: -8.1%
- Natural gas: -7.1%
- Heating oil: -10.2%
Excluding energy, producer prices rose 1.3% YoY.
Monthly PPI dropped 0.2%, better than the expected 0.3% decline.

👉 Takeaway: Cooling input prices support the ECB’s disinflation narrative but won’t remove all pressure from sticky core inflation.

📊 U.S. Markets Set for a Lower Open

After Wednesday’s Juneteenth holiday, U.S. stock futures point to a slightly lower open as investors react to:

Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
President Trump’s delayed decision on Iran, while strikes from Israel continue.
Oil prices retreat, weighing on energy stocks.
CarMax expected to open 10%+ higher after strong earnings.
Triple Witching Day could increase market volatility.

👉 Takeaway: Risk appetite remains fragile. Expect choppy trading as geopolitical uncertainty and technical factors weigh on sentiment.

📌 Final Thoughts

Economic data continues to paint a mixed global picture—slowing growth, sticky inflation, and rising geopolitical risks. Investors should brace for near-term volatility and monitor central bank signals closely.

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🌍 Market Update: European Stocks Dip Amid Geopolitical Risks, Fed Decision in Focus

18. June 2025 by Analyst

European Markets Open Lower

European equity markets were set to open lower on Wednesday as investors digested rising geopolitical tensions and awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

Euro Stoxx 50 futures slipped 0.3%
Stoxx 600 futures edged down 0.2%

Sentiment was hit by comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and threatened to strike Supreme Leader Khamenei, further escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Investors are also eyeing:

UK inflation data
Sweden’s Riksbank policy decision

Both could influence European interest rate expectations.

📉 Japan’s Exports Decline Amid Tariff Pressures

Japan’s exports fell 1.7% year-on-year in May 2025 to a four-month low of JPY 8.13 trillion, reversing a 2% gain in April. This marked the first decline since September 2024.

Shipments to the U.S.: ↓ 11.1%
Exports to China: ↓ 8.8%
Increases: EU (+4.9%), Russia (+5.2%), ASEAN (+0.1%)

Trade War Impact

The decline came as U.S. tariffs bite, especially on autos, auto parts, and chip machinery. Japan is seeking exemption from 25% U.S. auto tariffs, while Trump has doubled duties on steel and aluminum to 50%. A 24% retaliatory tariff from Japan is scheduled for July 9, unless a deal is reached.

🪙 Gold Slips as Dollar Gains, But Central Banks Remain Bullish

Gold prices edged lower to around $3,380/oz on Wednesday. A stronger U.S. dollar weighed on prices, even as Middle East tensions drove safe-haven demand.

Key Drivers:

Israel conducted strikes near Tehran
Iran launched missiles in retaliation
Trump held a national security meeting, sparking fears of U.S. military involvement

Meanwhile, a World Gold Council survey revealed:

95% of central banks expect global gold reserves to rise
43% plan to increase their own holdings — a record high

💵 U.S. Dollar Eases After Tuesday Surge

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dipped slightly to 98.6 after a near 1% gain on Tuesday, driven by safe-haven flows due to the Israel-Iran conflict.

What to Watch:

Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady
Market focus is on forward guidance
Upcoming U.S. data: housing starts and jobless claims

Despite weaker retail sales in May, consumer spending remains resilient, underpinned by strong wage growth.

📌 Takeaway

Global markets remain on edge as geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and monetary policy uncertainty collide. Investors are bracing for potential volatility spikes driven by:

Fed’s policy stance
Ongoing Middle East conflict
Looming U.S.-Japan tariff deadlines

Stay tuned for more updates and subscribe for a consultation from Swap Hunter and real-time market insights.

US Market Recap – Tuesday: Stocks Slip on Geopolitical Tensions and Weak Data

17. June 2025 by Analyst

Wall Street saw a modest pullback on Tuesday, with all three major U.S. stock indices falling around 0.3%. The retreat came amid escalating geopolitical tensions and signs of a cooling U.S. economy.

Geopolitical Pressures Rattle Investors

Market sentiment took a hit after President Trump downplayed prospects for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, and urged Tehran residents to evacuate—a move that stoked fears of broader conflict in the Middle East.

These developments added a risk-off tone to the trading session, leading to defensive positioning across sectors.

Economic Data Disappoints

Retail Sales Miss Expectations

Retail sales for May contracted more than analysts anticipated, suggesting that consumer spending is slowing. The weakness may reflect the growing impact of tariffs and ongoing policy uncertainty on household behavior.

Import Prices Show No Growth

Meanwhile, import prices excluding tariffs were flat in May, a sign of waning trade demand that could pressure growth in coming quarters.

Stock Highlights: Movers & Shakers

🟥 T-Mobile (NASDAQ: TMUS)

-4%
Shares fell after SoftBank sold part of its stake to reinvest in AI initiatives, prompting a wave of profit-taking.

🟩 ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) & Chevron (NYSE: CVX)

Both energy giants gained as oil prices rose, buoyed by mounting geopolitical risks and supply concerns.

🟩 Verve Therapeutics (NASDAQ: VERV)

+75% to $10.90
The biotech stock surged after Eli Lilly announced a buyout at $10.50 per share. The premium acquisition price signals bullish sentiment in the gene-editing space.

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Conclusion

Tuesday’s market dip highlights how global instability and softening economic data continue to influence investor behavior. As Wall Street watches both policy moves and geopolitical flashpoints, volatility may persist in the near term.

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Tags:
US stock market, market recap, T-Mobile, Verve Therapeutics, ExxonMobil, Chevron, oil prices, Trump Iran, retail sales, economic data, Wall Street today

How Much of Your Portfolio Should Be in Cash or Forex?

14. June 2025 by Analyst

When building or managing a portfolio, one of the most overlooked but crucial components is your cash and FX (foreign exchange) allocation. While many investors focus on stocks, crypto, or real estate, holding the right amount of liquid assets can significantly enhance your financial stability, flexibility, and overall strategy.

Why Cash and FX Matter

Cash provides liquidity. It allows you to take advantage of opportunities quickly, cover unexpected expenses, and weather downturns without panic selling. FX (foreign currencies like USD, EUR, or JPY) can serve as a hedge, especially if you’re exposed to international assets or geopolitical risk.

General Guidelines Based on Investor Type

1. Long-Term Investors (Passive Strategy)

If you’re primarily focused on long-term growth with a buy-and-hold strategy, a smaller cash allocation is typical.

Portfolio Size	Suggested Cash/FX Allocation
<$100,000	5% – 10%
$100,000+	2% – 5%

Purpose: Emergency liquidity, buying dips, or portfolio rebalancing.

2. Active Traders and Speculators

If you trade crypto, stocks, or CFDs, you need more liquidity to remain agile.

Strategy Type	Suggested Cash/FX Allocation
High-frequency trading	5% – 20%
Swing trader	10% – 30%
CFD/multi-asset trading	20% – 40%

Why more cash? To manage margin, fund trades quickly, and handle drawdowns.

3. Conservative/Wealth Preservation Investors

Age and risk appetite affect how much cash you should hold.

Age Group	Suggested Cash Allocation
Under 40	5% – 10%
40–60	10% – 20%
60+	20% – 40%

Purpose: Reduce volatility, maintain access to funds, and protect principal.

When to Increase Your Cash/FX Position

Anticipating a market downturn or recession
Planning for a large purchase or investment
Experiencing high portfolio volatility
Preparing to rebalance or rotate assets

Rule of Thumb

“Keep enough in cash and FX to sleep well at night, but not so much that inflation eats it away.”

Final Thoughts

Your ideal cash or FX allocation depends on your goals, timeline, and risk tolerance. Revisit it regularly, especially in changing market conditions. Liquidity is power—but too much can be a drag on growth.

Need help figuring out your ideal allocation? Organise a free consultation with Swap Hunter to ensure your portfolio is optimized for both opportunity and protection.

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📊 Market Calm Before the Storm: Why Swap-Hunter Thrives in Uncertainty

9. June 2025 by Analyst

As markets await U.S.–China trade talks and critical inflation data, Swap-Hunter’s trading system gives you the tactical edge to profit—no matter the volatility.

Global stock markets opened cautiously this week, with U.S. futures hovering near flat. For many traders, this signals indecision. But at Swap-Hunter, this is where our trading system shines.

Whether it’s geopolitical risk, inflation uncertainty, or headline-driven swings, our system thrives on structure—not speculation.

🌍 What’s Moving the Market This Week?

U.S.–China Trade Talks (June 9) – High-level negotiations resume in London.
CPI and PPI Inflation Data – Key indicators ahead of the Fed’s June meeting.
Fed Rate Decision (June 17–18) – Rate cut speculation building.
Geopolitical Risk – Domestic protests and National Guard deployment add market tension.

🔄 What This Means for Traders

While traditional systems wait for breakouts or trend confirmations, Swap-Hunter works within the noise. Our system capitalizes on:

Flat Markets – Ideal for range-bound swaps and intraday structure plays.
Volatility Surges – Our setup detects liquidity zones that react to news-based momentum.
Institutional Footprints – Identify where real volume is being deployed—not just where price moves.

📈 S&P 500 Snapshot

The S&P recently reclaimed the 6,000 level and is now just 2.3% off all-time highs. Rather than chase tops, our system monitors rotational liquidity and traps.

Example chart: Rotation zones identified by the Swap-Hunter system

⚙️ Why Swap-Hunter Is Built for This

Markets are not always trending. In fact, they spend most of their time consolidating. This is where Swap-Hunter’s rules-based, volatility-adaptive system gives you:

High-probability setups in quiet markets
Dynamic risk management around key macro events
Real-time structural edge vs. reactive trading

✅ Your Next Move

Don’t sit on the sidelines while others guess the outcome of this week’s data and talks. Trade with structure. Trade with precision.

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Tags: U.S.–China Trade, CPI, PPI, Fed Meeting, Trading System, Swap-Hunter, S&P 500, Market Structure

US Job Data Cools Less Than Expected in May – What It Means for Markets and Workers

9. June 2025 by Analyst

How to Trade Forex and Jobs Data with Swap Hunter

In a surprising turn, the latest US job data suggest that the labour market is more resilient than analysts had projected. According to the recent payroll data, US nonfarm employment increased by 139,000 jobs in May, slightly lower than April’s revised figure of 147,000 but higher than the consensus estimate of 130,000.

This unexpected uptick challenges earlier concerns of a sharper slowdown, amid fears of new tariffs and broader economic headwinds. While the pace of job creation has softened, the labour market continues to send mixed signals that demand a closer look.

Key Highlights:

May Job Growth: +139K (vs. 130K expected)
April Revisions: Downwardly adjusted to +147K
Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.2%

Sector-Specific Trends

Employment growth wasn’t evenly distributed. Some industries fared better than others:

Healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance showed steady gains, signaling continued demand for services and care-related roles.
Manufacturing and federal government jobs experienced a decline—potential early signs of budget tightening or shifting production dynamics due to supply chain constraints and tariff concerns.

This pattern reinforces the notion that while the US job engine is still running, it’s shifting gears.

What This Means for Workers

For job seekers, the positive news is that the unemployment rate remains stable, and key service sectors continue to hire. However, those in more cyclical or government-tied industries may want to stay alert to shifting priorities and potential policy changes.

Implications for Markets and Policy

Wall Street had braced for a sharper pullback in hiring, so this report could bring temporary relief. Still, policymakers at the Federal Reserve will likely keep a close eye on wage trends and broader economic indicators before making any interest rate adjustments.

If the economy continues to tread this fine line—neither overheating nor collapsing—it may lend weight to the case for a “soft landing” scenario, which economists have debated for months.

Final Thoughts US Jobs Data

May’s job data serves as a reminder that economic momentum doesn’t vanish overnight—it tapers, recalibrates, and shifts. For businesses and workers alike, staying flexible and responsive to these trends will be crucial in the coming months.

Stay tuned to Swap Hunter for regular updates on the economy, job market trends, and how these shifts impact your career, investments, and day-to-day decisions.

Have thoughts on how these trends could affect your industry? Drop your insights in the comments or connect with us on social media.

Successfully Trade Swaps in Forex

7. June 20257. June 2025 by Analyst

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