Silver (XAG/USD) is pulling back after touching recent highs above $39.00. Now trading below $38.50 as the US Dollar extends its rally. The decline comes as the US Dollar Index (DXY) posts gains for the fourth consecutive session.
Supported by a weak Euro amid political turmoil in France.
Although markets remain cautious about the Federal Reserve’s independence and rising expectations of rate cuts, the Greenback’s resilience is keeping precious metals under pressure.
Technical Analysis: $38.35 Support Key for Silver Bears
From a technical perspective, XAG/USD shows a bearish correction from last week’s one-month high at $39.07. Price action is testing support at $38.35 (August 25–26 lows).
A break below $38.35 could drag Silver toward the August 22 low at $37.70, with the next support at $37.25, the lower boundary of the ascending channel.
On the upside, immediate resistance lies near $38.75 and $38.85, followed by the August 22 high at $39.10 and July 22 high at $39.55.
Outlook for Traders
Silver traders should closely watch the $38.35 support zone. A downside break may accelerate bearish momentum, while a rebound above $38.75 could bring back buyers targeting $39.10 and beyond.
For now, Dollar strength remains the dominant driver, leaving Silver vulnerable to further declines.
The UK inflation rate rose to 3.8% in July 2025, marking its highest level since January 2024. This was up from 3.6% in June and slightly above market forecasts of 3.7%, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The main driver of the increase came from the transport sector, where prices climbed 3.2% compared to 1.7% in June. Airfares surged by a sharp 30.2%, largely influenced by the timing of the school summer holidays. Higher motor fuel costs, sea fares, and roadside recovery services also pushed transport inflation higher.
Other notable contributors included restaurants and hotels, where prices rose 3.4% versus 2.6% in June, largely due to more expensive overnight hotel stays. Food and non-alcoholic beverages also accelerated, rising 4.9% compared to 4.5% the previous month.
On the other hand, housing and household services eased slightly, providing some relief. Inflation in this category dropped to 6.2% from 6.7%, reflecting softer growth in owner-occupiers’ housing costs and rents.
On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.1% in July, defying expectations of a 0.1% decline. However, this was slower than June’s 0.3% rise. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, also edged up to 3.8% from 3.7%. source: Office for National Statistics
US stocks saw limited movements on Monday, with major indexes holding near their record highs from last week. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all traded flat as investors awaited fresh catalysts, particularly from:
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting minutes
The Jackson Hole Symposium later this week
Both are expected to offer hints on the Fed’s interest rate outlook.
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Equities remain supported by growing bets on multiple rate cuts this year, as markets respond to signs of a softening labor market and disinflation pressures.
Key Market Highlights:
Chipmakers and AI-exposed stocks climbed, with Nvidia (+0.5%) staying near record highs despite recent US export controls.
Retail stocks were mixed ahead of upcoming quarterly earnings reports.
Geopolitical backdrop: EU leaders prepared to meet Ukraine’s President Zelensky following US President Trump’s summit with Russian President Putin.
NAHB Housing Market Index – August 2025
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) slipped to 32 in August 2025, down from 33 in July and below expectations of 34, signaling persistent challenges in the housing sector.
Breakdown of Housing Data:
Current sales conditions: fell one point to 35
Sales expectations (next 6 months): steady at 43
Buyer traffic: rose two points to 22, still at historically low levels
Builder Incentives & Pricing Trends:
37% of builders cut prices in August (down from 38% in July)
Average price reduction remained at 5% for the tenth straight month
66% of builders used sales incentives, the highest post-Covid level, up from 62% in July
This data reflects ongoing affordability concerns, limited buyer demand, and sustained reliance on incentives to stimulate sales. source: National Association of Home Builders
Stock Market: Investors remain cautious but optimistic, balancing AI-driven growth and monetary policy expectations.
Housing Market: Persistent weakness in builder confidence highlights the impact of affordability challenges, even as incentives expand.
📊 Both markets remain heavily influenced by Federal Reserve policy signals, making this week’s Jackson Hole Symposium a pivotal event for investors and analysts.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
1. What is the current United States Stock Market Index level in August 2025?
In August 2025, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones remain near record highs after a strong rally earlier in the month. Markets are currently trading flat as investors await signals from the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
2. Why are US stocks trading flat despite strong AI and chipmaker performance?
While AI-related stocks like Nvidia continue to perform strongly, overall market movement is subdued due to uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. Investors are waiting for clarity from the Jackson Hole Symposium and FOMC meeting minutes.
3. What does the NAHB Housing Market Index measure?
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) measures builder confidence in the housing market, covering current sales, buyer traffic, and future sales expectations. A reading above 50 indicates optimism, while below 50 reflects weakness.
4. Why did the NAHB Housing Market Index fall in August 2025?
The index fell to 32 in August 2025 due to weak buyer demand, affordability challenges, and higher reliance on sales incentives and price cuts by builders.
5. Are US home builders offering more incentives in 2025?
Yes. In August 2025, 66% of builders reported using sales incentives, the highest since the post-Covid period. Price cuts remain common, with an average reduction of 5% per home.
Technical Analysis: S&P 500 – August 2025
The S&P 500 continues to hover near record highs after its sharp rally this summer. Momentum remains strong, but the index is showing signs of consolidation as traders await policy signals from the Federal Reserve.
Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone: 5,650 – 5,700 → The index is struggling to break above this level, marking a potential short-term ceiling.
Support Levels:
5,500 (near-term support) – A break below could invite short-term selling.
5,350 (major support) – A key level to watch, aligning with the 50-day moving average (50-DMA).
Moving Averages
50-Day Moving Average (50-DMA): ~5,350 – Currently acting as strong dynamic support.
200-Day Moving Average (200-DMA): ~4,950 – Well below current levels, confirming a longer-term bullish trend.
Momentum Indicators
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Hovering around 64, just below the overbought threshold (70). This suggests the index is consolidating but not yet in danger of a deep correction.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Still in positive territory, though momentum is flattening, pointing to a possible range-bound movement in the short term.
Chart Outlook
The S&P 500 remains bullish in the medium to long term, supported by AI-driven growth and easing inflation expectations. However, short-term consolidation is likely until traders get more clarity from Fed policy announcements.
Trading Strategy (Not Financial Advice):
Bullish bias above 5,500 support
Watch for a breakout above 5,700 for continuation toward new record highs
Caution: A sustained break below 5,350 could trigger deeper pullbacks
Mortgage Applications See Strongest Weekly Rise in a Month
In the first week of July 2025, the volume of U.S. mortgage applications soared by 9.4% from the previous week — the largest increase in a month, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. This marks the third consecutive weekly gain, the longest streak since December 2024, as benchmark mortgage rates dipped to their lowest since April.
Refinancing activity, which tends to respond quickly to changes in short-term rates, jumped 9% week-over-week and surged 56% compared to the same period in 2024. Similarly, purchase applications rose 9% on the week and were up 25% year-over-year, highlighting renewed strength in the housing market. source: Mortgage Bankers Association of America
Markets Edge Higher on Trade Announcements and Fed Speculation
U.S. equities closed higher on Wednesday as traders digested updates on trade policy and awaited the Federal Reserve’s next moves. The S&P 500 gained 0.5%, the Nasdaq climbed 0.7%, and the Dow Jones rose by nearly 200 points.
President Trump signaled that major trade announcements would be made, including a planned 50% tariff on copper imports and potential 200% tariffs on pharmaceuticals, though implementation is delayed by 12–18 months to give industries time to adapt.
Market participants are closely watching for the FOMC minutes release, which may offer insights into the timing of potential interest rate cuts. Expectations remain strong for two 25 basis point cuts before year-end.
Technology stocks led gains, with Nvidia up 2.2% and Microsoft rising 1.2%. Apple shares were flat, following a statement by White House Trade Counselor Peter Navarro suggesting the company considers itself “too big to tariff.”
Mexico’s Inflation Slows but Core Pressures Rise
Mexico’s annual inflation rate eased to 4.32% in June 2025, down slightly from 4.42% in May, aligning closely with market expectations of 4.31%, according to the national statistics agency INEGI.
Price growth moderated in agriculture (5.04% vs 6.76%) and energy (3.56% vs 3.93%), while accelerating for goods, food, beverages, and services. Notably, core inflation ticked up to 4.24%, suggesting that underlying price pressures remain sticky.
With falling mortgage rates energizing the U.S. housing market, equity markets buoyed by trade policy hints, and inflation trends in Mexico showing mixed signals, July 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal month for both investors and policymakers.
Stay tuned for more updates on monetary policy, inflation data, and global economic trends.
Trade Tensions Return: The July 9th deadline marks the end of the US tariff pause. Only partial deals (UK, Vietnam, China framework) are in place. Markets are bracing for possible escalations and their impact on global trade flows.
Fed Watch: Investors await the FOMC minutes and several Fed speeches to gauge the outlook for interest rates. Chair Powell maintains a cautious tone, but markets want more clues on the path for policy in H2.
Central Bank Decisions: Policy meetings in Australia, South Korea, Malaysia, and New Zealand could signal regional divergence amid slowing global growth and easing inflation.
🇺🇸 United States
Tariff Deadline: High stakes around the July 9th expiration of tariff relief. Key sectors may face higher import costs unless further agreements are reached.
Fed & Data:
FOMC minutes and Fed speeches in focus.
Data includes: Weekly jobless claims, consumer credit, NFIB Small Business Index, and budget statement.
Earnings Season Kickoff:
Watch Delta Air Lines and Conagra Brands earnings on Thursday for early corporate sentiment.
🇨🇦 Canada
June Jobs Report and Ivey PMI will shape expectations around Bank of Canada’s next move.
🇲🇽 Mexico & 🇧🇷 Brazil
Mexico: June inflation report will guide Banxico’s next rate decision.
Brazil: Updates on inflation, retail sales, and business confidence are due.
🇪🇺 Europe
Germany: Expected second monthly industrial production decline, plus trade, wholesale prices, and final inflation data.
Eurozone: First dip in retail sales in 5 months.
UK: Key data on monthly GDP, industrial output, trade balance, and Halifax house prices.
Italy & France: Final inflation and industrial figures.
Others: Switzerland (consumer confidence), Turkey (IP), Russia (inflation).
🌏 Asia-Pacific
China:
CPI likely flat; PPI deflation to ease (still -3.2% y/y).
Japan:
Full slate of data: wages, current account, machine orders, producer prices.
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Rise 147K in June, Topping Expectations
The U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs in June 2025, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, surpassing forecasts of 110,000 and marking a slight uptick from an upwardly revised 144,000 in May. The latest reading aligns with the 12-month average of 146,000, continuing to demonstrate labor market resilience despite economic headwinds.
Government jobs made up nearly half the gains, adding 73,000 positions, primarily in state education (+40K) and local education (+23K). Federal government employment, however, declined by 7,000, continuing a downtrend since its January peak.
Healthcare remained a key driver, adding 39,000 jobs, with hospitals (+16K) and nursing and residential care facilities (+14K) leading the way. Social assistance roles also grew by 19,000.
⚠️ Analysts caution that a hiring slowdown could emerge as uncertainty surrounding tariffs, trade, and immigration policies persists.
ISM Services PMI Rebounds to 50.8
The ISM Services PMI climbed to 50.8 in June, up from 49.9 in May, exceeding expectations of 50.5. This signals a return to modest growth in the services sector after a brief contraction.
Key highlights:
Business activity rose to 54.2 (vs 50.0)
New orders rebounded to 51.3 (vs 46.4)
Inventories and export orders also improved
Price pressures eased slightly to 67.5 from 68.7
However, concerns about tariffs and slowing supplier delivery performance (50.3 vs 52.5) remain prevalent. Middle East tensions were noted for the first time, though no direct supply disruptions were reported.
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens Sharply
The U.S. trade deficit widened to $71.5 billion in May, up from $60.3 billion in April, as exports dropped 4% to $279 billion, led by declines in nonmonetary gold, natural gas, and finished metal shapes. Imports dipped just 0.1% to $350.5 billion.
All three major U.S. indices climbed over 0.8% on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closing at record highs. The strong June payroll report and an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1% fueled investor confidence.
Big movers:
Nvidia: +1.3%
Synopsys: +4.2% on lifted U.S. export restrictions to China
Cadence Design & Synopsys: ~+5% on AI strength
Datadog: +10% on S&P 500 inclusion
Optimism also stemmed from progress in the U.S.-Vietnam trade deal and the House nearing final approval of President Trump’s $3.4 trillion tax-and-spending bill.
Key Takeaways
Labor market continues to show strength but faces downside risks.
Services sector rebounds, though growth remains modest.
Trade imbalance widens on export slump.
Stock market surges on tech gains and policy optimism.
Conclusion
The June 2025 economic indicators paint a mixed yet cautiously optimistic picture. While the labor market and services sector show resilience, trade imbalances and policy uncertainty loom large. Investors appear encouraged by tech sector momentum and fiscal stimulus prospects, but volatility could reemerge as global tensions and trade debates evolve.
📊 Germany Stock Market Index (DE40) Falls Amid Economic Uncertainty
The Germany Stock Market Index (DE40)—which tracks the performance of 40 top German blue-chip stocks—closed down 0.5% at 23,910 on Monday, breaking a two-day winning streak. The decline comes amid mixed domestic economic data and renewed trade concerns.
🇩🇪 Key Economic Indicators in Germany
✅ Inflation Cools in June
German inflation surprised markets by dropping to 2.0% year-on-year in June, down from 2.1% in May and below the 2.2% forecast. This signals easing price pressure, potentially giving the European Central Bank (ECB) more flexibility on interest rates.
❌ Retail Sales Point to Weak Consumer Demand
Germany’s retail sales fell 1.6% in May, following a 0.6% drop in April. This back-to-back decline underlines sluggish domestic consumption, a key factor limiting broader economic recovery in Europe’s largest economy.
🌐 Trade Tensions Add Market Pressure
Global trade uncertainty continues to weigh on the German stock market. U.S. President Trump confirmed that trade negotiations are ongoing but won’t extend the current 90-day tariff pause beyond July 9. This raises risks for Germany’s export-heavy economy, especially sectors like automotive and chemicals.
🔻 Biggest DAX Losers: Symrise and Bayer
Symrise AG led the market declines with a sharp 7% drop, likely due to sector sentiment or earnings-related concerns.
Bayer AG tumbled 5.4% after the U.S. Supreme Court requested the government’s opinion on Monsanto weedkiller litigation, reigniting legal uncertainty for the pharma and agrochemical giant.
📆 DE40 Monthly Performance
Despite occasional gains, the DAX (DE40) ended June with a modest 0.4% loss, reflecting ongoing macroeconomic headwinds and market caution.
📌 What to Watch Next
July 9 Trade Deadline: Markets will closely monitor whether new tariffs are imposed.
Upcoming ECB Decisions: Slower inflation may influence monetary policy.
📈 US Stocks Surge as Fed Cut Hopes and Trade Truce Drive Gains
Published: June 30, 2025 Category: Markets & Economy
US equities rallied on Monday, extending last week’s gains as easing trade tensions and growing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve pushed major indexes to record highs.
🔼 Major Indexes Reach New Highs
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100: Up 0.5% each
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Gained over 200 points
📰 Market Drivers
1. 🇺🇸 US-China Trade Agreement
The US and China announced a formal agreement to prevent new tariffs, with President Trump showing flexibility on the July 9 deadline for reintroducing reciprocal tariffs. This marks a major de-escalation from past tensions, when tariffs reached up to 145%.
2. 🏦 Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise
Investor confidence is rising as soft inflation data and global uncertainties increase the likelihood of multiple Fed rate cuts in 2025.
3. 💻 Tech Sector Strengthens
Canada scrapped its digital services tax, boosting US tech stocks and reopening trade talks.
Meta and Alphabet shares rose 1%.
Juniper Networks soared 9% after the DoJ approved its HP acquisition, settling a legal dispute.
💶 Eurozone: Euro Hits $1.17 as German Inflation Falls
The euro rose to its highest level since September 2021, trading just above $1.17, bolstered by:
Weaker US dollar from dovish Fed sentiment
Fiscal concerns in the US
Cooling inflation in Germany
🇩🇪 Germany Inflation Back to Target
According to the Federal Statistical Office:
CPI fell to 2.0% in June, down from 2.1%, beating forecasts
Core inflation eased to 2.7%, a 3-month low
Food inflation slowed to 2.0%, energy prices dropped -3.5%
Monthly CPI was flat, following a 0.1% rise in May
🏦 ECB Policy Outlook
While inflation edged up slightly in France, Italy, and Spain, the ECB maintains a cautious approach. Vice President Luis de Guindos reaffirmed that the current policy is appropriate, but warned of the need for flexibility amid economic uncertainty.
Markets continue to price the ECB’s terminal rate around 1.75%–1.80%.
📊 Key Takeaways
✅ US markets are responding positively to reduced geopolitical risk and a potential easing cycle from the Fed.
✅ Eurozone inflation data provides mixed signals but supports a stable ECB outlook.
✅ Tech stocks may continue to benefit from regulatory relief and favorable trade shifts.
Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator Falls to 94 in June 2025
The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the Euro Area dropped to 94 in June 2025, down from 94.8 in May and well below market expectations of 95.1, according to the latest data from the European Commission.
📉 Key Drivers of the Decline
The drop in sentiment was largely driven by the industrial sector, where confidence slipped to -12 from -10.4 in the previous month. The decline reflects:
Lower order book assessments
Higher stocks of finished products
Weaker production expectations
Additional declines were observed in:
Retail confidence: -7.5 (vs -7.2 in May)
Consumer confidence: -15.3 (vs -15.1)
📈 Sectors Showing Improvement
Despite the overall downturn, two sectors posted gains:
Services: Confidence improved to 2.9 (from 1.8)
Construction: Rebounded slightly to -2.8 (from -3.5)
🌍 Country-Level Highlights
Biggest Declines:
France: 89.6 (down from 93)
Spain: 102 (down from 103.4)
Germany: 90.7 (down from 91.5)
Stable or Improving:
Poland: 101.4 (up from 100.4)
Italy: 98.9 (vs 98.7)
Netherlands: 97.1 (vs 96.9)
🔎 What It Means for the Eurozone
The data suggest ongoing economic weakness across the Eurozone, particularly in manufacturing and retail sectors. While services and construction offer some support, the overall picture points to fragile business and consumer confidence as the region navigates 2025.
This divergence between countries—particularly the downturn in France and Germany—highlights uneven recovery dynamics within the EU bloc. source: European Commission
Stay tuned for more updates on EU economic indicators and what they mean for markets and policy.
WTI crude oil, gold prices, and the US dollar index all moved significantly on Thursday as geopolitical developments, Fed policy signals, and economic data shaped market sentiment.
Crude Oil Prices Rise Ahead of US–Iran Talks and OPEC+ Meeting
WTI crude oil futures climbed above $65 per barrel on Thursday, building on recent gains and recovering from earlier losses in the week. The rally comes as investors await high-stakes talks between the US and Iran scheduled for next week. These discussions aim to reduce tensions in the Middle East and limit Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
The move follows President Trump’s reaffirmation of the maximum pressure campaign, including restrictions on Iranian oil exports. However, he also hinted at possible enforcement leniency to support Iran’s reconstruction, suggesting China may continue importing Iranian crude.
In a sign of strong demand, US crude inventories dropped by 5.8 million barrels, reaching an 11-year seasonal low. Cushing stockpiles also fell to the lowest since February.
Markets are now turning their focus to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on July 6, where the group will set its production policy for August. Russia may support a supply increase if conditions warrant it.
Gold Prices Edge Higher on Weaker Dollar, Geopolitical Relief
Gold prices rose toward $3,340 per ounce, extending gains from the previous session. The weaker US dollar and falling Treasury yields provided support, while easing geopolitical tensions added a further boost.
Next week’s US–Iran talks have sparked cautious optimism in markets. While the ceasefire between Iran and Israel is holding, concerns about its durability remain.
Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his second day of testimony, maintained a balanced stance—acknowledging inflation risks from tariffs but holding off on immediate rate cuts. Nonetheless, weak consumer confidence in June raised fresh concerns about the labor market and trade uncertainty, potentially strengthening the case for future easing.
Markets are now closely watching key data, including Thursday’s final Q1 GDP reading and initial jobless claims, followed by PCE price data on Friday.
US Dollar Slides to Three-Year Low Amid Rate Cut Expectations
The US dollar index fell to around 97.5, marking its lowest level in over three years. The decline reflects a mix of easing geopolitical tensions, growing fiscal worries, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
With the ceasefire between Iran and Israel seemingly stable and US–Iran negotiations on the horizon, risk sentiment improved. On the policy front, Chair Powell reiterated a cautious stance, stating that while tariffs may drive inflation, the Fed would likely continue easing absent those pressures.
Traders are now pricing in over 60 basis points of rate cuts by year-end, with the next move anticipated in September. Attention is also turning to US trade negotiations ahead of President Trump’s July 9 deadline, and efforts in Congress to finalize a tax and spending package around the same period.
Looking Ahead
Markets are poised for more volatility as geopolitical, economic, and policy developments continue to unfold. Investors should watch closely for:
US–Iran nuclear talks next week
July 6 OPEC+ meeting outcomes
Upcoming US economic data (GDP, jobless claims, PCE)
Fed policy signals amid global trade uncertainty
Stay tuned for further updates as these stories evolve.
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