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📰 Market Update: US Strikes Iran, Oil Prices Jump, Japan’s Manufacturing Recovers

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June 23, 2025 – Global markets are reacting sharply after a surprise escalation in the Middle East, pushing oil prices higher and rattling investor confidence. Meanwhile, fresh data from Japan hints at a modest recovery in the manufacturing sector.

🇺🇸 US Stock Futures Edge Lower After Strikes on Iran

Stock futures dipped early Monday after the United States launched airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. The move, which came sooner than expected, has raised fears of retaliation from Tehran and broader regional instability.

President Donald Trump, who had suggested on Friday he’d wait “two weeks” before making a decision, warned Saturday that “there will be either peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days.”

What’s at Stake:

  • Potential Iranian retaliation targeting US assets or personnel
  • Disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz
  • Heightened volatility across energy and equity markets

🛢️ Oil Prices Surge on Supply Fears

WTI crude oil rose over 2% to $75.90 per barrel, reaching its highest level since January 2025. The market is responding to concerns that Iran may restrict oil exports or block the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial artery for about 20% of global crude oil flows.

Iran’s parliament has reportedly voted to close the Strait, though final approval is pending from the country’s Supreme National Security Council and Supreme Leader.

📉 Market Caution Builds

Major US indexes ended last week little changed, as investors braced for worsening geopolitical tensions and growing economic uncertainty. Risk appetite remains subdued as markets await further developments in the Middle East.

🇯🇵 Japan’s Manufacturing Sector Returns to Growth

On a more positive note, Japan’s Manufacturing PMI from au Jibun Bank rose to 50.4 in June, up from 49.4 in May, marking the first expansion since May 2024. source: S&P Global

Key Highlights:

  • Output and inventory levels rose
  • Employment edged higher
  • Demand remained weak, especially due to new US tariffs
  • Supplier delivery times lengthened, signaling supply chain pressure

While input cost inflation held near a 14-month low, output prices remained among the softest seen in four years. Business sentiment was largely unchanged and still below the historical average.

📌 Final Takeaway

The Middle East situation is developing rapidly and will likely remain the dominant market driver in the short term. Investors should keep an eye on:

  • Iran’s next move
  • Oil market dynamics
  • Safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar

Meanwhile, Japan’s modest manufacturing recovery offers a sliver of optimism amid global turbulence.

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    📈 Market Update: Yen Recovers on BOJ Inflation Signals, Bitcoin Dips Below $100K

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    🇯🇵 Japanese Yen Strengthens as BOJ Eyes Inflation Risks

    The Japanese yen gained strength on Friday, trading near ¥145 per U.S. dollar, as Japan’s core inflation surged for the third consecutive month. The latest reading came in at 3.7%, marking the highest level since January 2023 and reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could tighten monetary policy further.

    Key Highlights:

    • BOJ keeps interest rate at 0.5% but signals openness to further hikes.
    • Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized a data-driven approach.
    • Companies continue passing wage increases onto prices, keeping inflation sticky.
    • Despite Friday’s rebound, the yen is still down ~1% for the week due to safe-haven flows into the U.S. dollar, amid rising geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran.

    📊 Takeaway: A stronger yen may be on the horizon if inflation remains persistent and the BOJ follows through with rate hikes. However, global risk sentiment and U.S. dollar strength are key counterweights.

    ₿ Bitcoin Slips Below $100K Amid Broader Market Uncertainty

    On Sunday, June 22, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) fell to $99,449, marking a 2.15% decline from the previous session. Over the past month, Bitcoin has lost 7.32%, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment across markets.

    Bitcoin Performance Overview:

    • Daily: -2.15%
    • 4-week: -7.32%
    • 12-month: +57.06%

    Price Forecasts (via Trading Economics):

    • End of Q2 2025: $102,869
    • 12-Month Outlook: $100,787

    💡 Outlook: Despite short-term dips, long-term fundamentals and macro trends suggest Bitcoin may stabilize or climb moderately in the coming months. However, global tensions and central bank policies could add continued volatility.

    🌍 Final Thoughts

    Both traditional currencies like the yen and digital assets like Bitcoin are being shaped by a complex macroeconomic environment, featuring persistent inflation, central bank shifts, and geopolitical unrest.

    What to Watch:

    • Next BOJ policy meeting and inflation reports.
    • U.S. Federal Reserve commentary on rates and inflation.
    • Developments in the Middle East and their impact on safe-haven assets.

    📰 Stay Informed: Subscribe for weekly macro updates and in-depth analysis on currencies, crypto, and global markets.

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      🌍 Market Update: European Stocks Dip Amid Geopolitical Risks, Fed Decision in Focus

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      European Markets Open Lower

      European equity markets were set to open lower on Wednesday as investors digested rising geopolitical tensions and awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

      • Euro Stoxx 50 futures slipped 0.3%
      • Stoxx 600 futures edged down 0.2%

      Sentiment was hit by comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and threatened to strike Supreme Leader Khamenei, further escalating tensions in the Middle East.

      Investors are also eyeing:

      • UK inflation data
      • Sweden’s Riksbank policy decision

      Both could influence European interest rate expectations.

      📉 Japan’s Exports Decline Amid Tariff Pressures

      Japan’s exports fell 1.7% year-on-year in May 2025 to a four-month low of JPY 8.13 trillion, reversing a 2% gain in April. This marked the first decline since September 2024.

      • Shipments to the U.S.: ↓ 11.1%
      • Exports to China: ↓ 8.8%
      • Increases: EU (+4.9%), Russia (+5.2%), ASEAN (+0.1%)

      Trade War Impact

      The decline came as U.S. tariffs bite, especially on autos, auto parts, and chip machinery. Japan is seeking exemption from 25% U.S. auto tariffs, while Trump has doubled duties on steel and aluminum to 50%. A 24% retaliatory tariff from Japan is scheduled for July 9, unless a deal is reached.

      🪙 Gold Slips as Dollar Gains, But Central Banks Remain Bullish

      Gold prices edged lower to around $3,380/oz on Wednesday. A stronger U.S. dollar weighed on prices, even as Middle East tensions drove safe-haven demand.

      Key Drivers:

      • Israel conducted strikes near Tehran
      • Iran launched missiles in retaliation
      • Trump held a national security meeting, sparking fears of U.S. military involvement

      Meanwhile, a World Gold Council survey revealed:

      • 95% of central banks expect global gold reserves to rise
      • 43% plan to increase their own holdings — a record high

      💵 U.S. Dollar Eases After Tuesday Surge

      The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dipped slightly to 98.6 after a near 1% gain on Tuesday, driven by safe-haven flows due to the Israel-Iran conflict.

      What to Watch:

      • Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady
      • Market focus is on forward guidance
      • Upcoming U.S. data: housing starts and jobless claims

      Despite weaker retail sales in May, consumer spending remains resilient, underpinned by strong wage growth.

      📌 Takeaway

      Global markets remain on edge as geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and monetary policy uncertainty collide. Investors are bracing for potential volatility spikes driven by:

      • Fed’s policy stance
      • Ongoing Middle East conflict
      • Looming U.S.-Japan tariff deadlines

      Stay tuned for more updates and subscribe for a consultation from Swap Hunter and real-time market insights.

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        How Much of Your Portfolio Should Be in Cash or Forex?

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        When building or managing a portfolio, one of the most overlooked but crucial components is your cash and FX (foreign exchange) allocation. While many investors focus on stocks, crypto, or real estate, holding the right amount of liquid assets can significantly enhance your financial stability, flexibility, and overall strategy.

        Why Cash and FX Matter

        Cash provides liquidity. It allows you to take advantage of opportunities quickly, cover unexpected expenses, and weather downturns without panic selling. FX (foreign currencies like USD, EUR, or JPY) can serve as a hedge, especially if you’re exposed to international assets or geopolitical risk.

        General Guidelines Based on Investor Type

        1. Long-Term Investors (Passive Strategy)

        If you’re primarily focused on long-term growth with a buy-and-hold strategy, a smaller cash allocation is typical.

        Portfolio SizeSuggested Cash/FX Allocation
        <$100,0005% – 10%
        $100,000+2% – 5%

        Purpose: Emergency liquidity, buying dips, or portfolio rebalancing.

        2. Active Traders and Speculators

        If you trade crypto, stocks, or CFDs, you need more liquidity to remain agile.

        Strategy TypeSuggested Cash/FX Allocation
        High-frequency trading5% – 20%
        Swing trader10% – 30%
        CFD/multi-asset trading20% – 40%

        Why more cash? To manage margin, fund trades quickly, and handle drawdowns.

        3. Conservative/Wealth Preservation Investors

        Age and risk appetite affect how much cash you should hold.

        Age GroupSuggested Cash Allocation
        Under 405% – 10%
        40–6010% – 20%
        60+20% – 40%

        Purpose: Reduce volatility, maintain access to funds, and protect principal.

        When to Increase Your Cash/FX Position

        • Anticipating a market downturn or recession
        • Planning for a large purchase or investment
        • Experiencing high portfolio volatility
        • Preparing to rebalance or rotate assets

        Rule of Thumb

        “Keep enough in cash and FX to sleep well at night, but not so much that inflation eats it away.”

        Final Thoughts

        Your ideal cash or FX allocation depends on your goals, timeline, and risk tolerance. Revisit it regularly, especially in changing market conditions. Liquidity is power—but too much can be a drag on growth.

        Need help figuring out your ideal allocation? Organise a free consultation with Swap Hunter to ensure your portfolio is optimized for both opportunity and protection.

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          📊 Market Calm Before the Storm: Why Swap-Hunter Thrives in Uncertainty

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          As markets await U.S.–China trade talks and critical inflation data, Swap-Hunter’s trading system gives you the tactical edge to profit—no matter the volatility.

          Global stock markets opened cautiously this week, with U.S. futures hovering near flat. For many traders, this signals indecision. But at Swap-Hunter, this is where our trading system shines.

          Whether it’s geopolitical risk, inflation uncertainty, or headline-driven swings, our system thrives on structure—not speculation.

          🌍 What’s Moving the Market This Week?

          • U.S.–China Trade Talks (June 9) – High-level negotiations resume in London.
          • CPI and PPI Inflation Data – Key indicators ahead of the Fed’s June meeting.
          • Fed Rate Decision (June 17–18) – Rate cut speculation building.
          • Geopolitical Risk – Domestic protests and National Guard deployment add market tension.

          🔄 What This Means for Traders

          While traditional systems wait for breakouts or trend confirmations, Swap-Hunter works within the noise. Our system capitalizes on:

          • Flat Markets – Ideal for range-bound swaps and intraday structure plays.
          • Volatility Surges – Our setup detects liquidity zones that react to news-based momentum.
          • Institutional Footprints – Identify where real volume is being deployed—not just where price moves.

          📈 S&P 500 Snapshot

          The S&P recently reclaimed the 6,000 level and is now just 2.3% off all-time highs. Rather than chase tops, our system monitors rotational liquidity and traps.

          S&P500 Rotation Zones

          Example chart: Rotation zones identified by the Swap-Hunter system

          ⚙️ Why Swap-Hunter Is Built for This

          Markets are not always trending. In fact, they spend most of their time consolidating. This is where Swap-Hunter’s rules-based, volatility-adaptive system gives you:

          • High-probability setups in quiet markets
          • Dynamic risk management around key macro events
          • Real-time structural edge vs. reactive trading

          ✅ Your Next Move

          Don’t sit on the sidelines while others guess the outcome of this week’s data and talks. Trade with structure. Trade with precision.

          🔗 Join Swap-Hunter today and start trading the markets with confidence—whatever headlines come next.

          Tags: U.S.–China Trade, CPI, PPI, Fed Meeting, Trading System, Swap-Hunter, S&P 500, Market Structure

          US Job Data Cools Less Than Expected in May – What It Means for Markets and Workers

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          How to Trade Forex and Jobs Data with Swap Hunter

          In a surprising turn, the latest US job data suggest that the labour market is more resilient than analysts had projected. According to the recent payroll data, US nonfarm employment increased by 139,000 jobs in May, slightly lower than April’s revised figure of 147,000 but higher than the consensus estimate of 130,000.

          This unexpected uptick challenges earlier concerns of a sharper slowdown, amid fears of new tariffs and broader economic headwinds. While the pace of job creation has softened, the labour market continues to send mixed signals that demand a closer look.

          Key Highlights:

          • May Job Growth: +139K (vs. 130K expected)
          • April Revisions: Downwardly adjusted to +147K
          • Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.2%

          Sector-Specific Trends

          Employment growth wasn’t evenly distributed. Some industries fared better than others:

          • Healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance showed steady gains, signaling continued demand for services and care-related roles.
          • Manufacturing and federal government jobs experienced a decline—potential early signs of budget tightening or shifting production dynamics due to supply chain constraints and tariff concerns.

          This pattern reinforces the notion that while the US job engine is still running, it’s shifting gears.

          What This Means for Workers

          For job seekers, the positive news is that the unemployment rate remains stable, and key service sectors continue to hire. However, those in more cyclical or government-tied industries may want to stay alert to shifting priorities and potential policy changes.

          Implications for Markets and Policy

          Wall Street had braced for a sharper pullback in hiring, so this report could bring temporary relief. Still, policymakers at the Federal Reserve will likely keep a close eye on wage trends and broader economic indicators before making any interest rate adjustments.

          If the economy continues to tread this fine line—neither overheating nor collapsing—it may lend weight to the case for a “soft landing” scenario, which economists have debated for months.

          Final Thoughts US Jobs Data

          May’s job data serves as a reminder that economic momentum doesn’t vanish overnight—it tapers, recalibrates, and shifts. For businesses and workers alike, staying flexible and responsive to these trends will be crucial in the coming months.

          Stay tuned to Swap Hunter for regular updates on the economy, job market trends, and how these shifts impact your career, investments, and day-to-day decisions.

          Have thoughts on how these trends could affect your industry? Drop your insights in the comments or connect with us on social media.

          Successfully Trade Swaps in Forex

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          Being charged Swaps by your Forex Broker

          Swap Hunter will Make Money from Swaps in Forex

          Retail Forex investors are not aware of Swaps until it is too late. Mainly due to a lack of information and education.

          By the time they are aware, their account manager is giving them a high pressure margin call.

          There is nothing quite as satisfying as beating your broker and withdrawing a healthy profit to your bank account.

          Especially when you are being paid Swaps, not the other way around.

          Swap Hunter was designed to do exactly that.

          To give you an edge over the broker.

          The most important aspect of being a successful trader is to keep your composure. To have a strategy.

          Plan ahead and consistently make money.

          All with minimal risk and stress.

          It is easy when you know how and have the right tools.

          Simple and effective solution

          Register now to get the most reliable and relaxing carry trading system in the world.

          Get in touch for more information.

          Get Paid to Trade!

          Beat the broker, Beat the Bank, with Swap Hunter.

          Scan the QR code to get your MEX Atlantic Multibank Group trading account today.

          Low Interest Rates at the Banks.

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          Low Interest Rates on your Savings?
          Swap Hunter have Developed a Trading System that Generates Daily Interest on Trading Positions in the Forex, Stock and Commodities Markets.

          Outperform Low Interest Rates offered by your Bank by using the Swap Hunter Trading System.

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0svvAd98ik0https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k98sxle4lKo&t=272s

          Get Paid Daily Interest on your Trades and Investments.

           

          Swap Hunter analyses and calculates the overnight interest you will be paid by the broker for holding your trades.

          Our Swap Hunter Indicator Trading System measures the strength of correlations between assets in order to hedge the risk of the market. This provides additional safety & security on trading positions.

          Due to the versatile nature of our trading system, you can use multiple strategies in order to suit your level of risk appetite, experience and level of investment. 

          We also offer fully managed solutions for people who do not understand or have time to analyse markets, 

          What is Swap Trading? 

          Or, Carry trading as it is also know as. It is simply when you buy a high interest rate currency against a low interest rate currency and your broker pays you the overnight interest rate differential. The unique thing about the Swap Hunter Trading System is that we use hedging strategies to lower your risk significantly to highly volatile markets. 
          We hedge correlated assets and earn interest every day.
          Beat the low and negative interest rate environment.
          Check out this video from one of our partners, FXTM to explain further.

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzCFwTwQ4Ts

          Try Our One Month Trial

          Register Here

          Recommended Brokers.

          Low Interest Rates and Negative Interest Rates Explained.

          How do negative interest rates affect my savings?

          Swap Hunter Trading System eliminates these problems for savers.

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pX3_3NMZa0k/?partner_id=4905901

          Low Interest Rates at the Banks.

          by

          Low Interest Rates on your Savings?
          Swap Hunter have Developed a Trading System that Generates Daily Interest on Trading Positions in the Forex, Stock and Commodities Markets.

          Outperform Low Interest Rates offered by your Bank by using the Swap Hunter Trading System.

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0svvAd98ik0https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k98sxle4lKo&t=272s

          Low interest rates at the Banks getting to you yet? Well it looks like it will only get worse. 

          Central Banks continue to cut Interest Rates to fuel the stock market mainly because of the Coronavirus pandemic. 

          The time to find a way to make your money work for you is now. 

          You do not need to understand trading or the financial markets to benefit from the Swap Hunter Trading System. 

          Join our fully managed PAMM trading account with a minimum investment to test out the Swap Hunter Trading System.

          You wish to trade for yourself? 

          With your own broker? No Problem.

          Licence the Swap Hunter software and we will help install, provide all the training and support you will need. 

          Get Paid Daily Interest on your Trades and Investments.

           

          Whatever your asset preference: Forex (FX), Stocks, Commodities, ETF’s or Indices our MT4 Indicator analyses and calculates the overnight swaps for your trades.

          Our Swap Hunter MT4 Indicator measures the strength of correlations between all available asset groups over time. This provides investors additional safety & security on their trading positions.

          Generate a steady income, while lowering your risk exposure to the markets with strategies used by institutional level traders, Global and Central Banks.  

          We have made it easy for you to do the same thing. 

          Due to the versatile nature of our MT4 Indicator, you can use multiple strategies in order to suit your level of investment, experience and availability.
          We also offer a fully managed solution using copy trading, social trading and PAMM/MAM accounts.

          What is Swap Trading? 

          Or, Carry trading as it is also know as. It is simply when you buy a high interest rate currency against a low interest rate currency and your broker pays you the overnight interest rate differential. The unique thing about the Swap Hunter Trading System is that we use hedging strategies to lower your risk significantly to highly volatile markets. 
          We hedge correlated assets and earn interest every day.
          Beat the low and negative interest rate environment.
          Check out this video from one of our partners to explain further about Swaps.

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzCFwTwQ4Ts

          Try Our One Month Trial

          Register Here

          Recommended Brokers.

          Low Interest Rates and Negative Interest Rates Explained.

          How do negative interest rates affect my savings?

          Swap Hunter Trading System eliminates these problems for savers.

          Lower the risk of Online Trading with the Swap Hunter Trading System

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          The Swap Hunter Trading System generates interest on your trades every day.

          By simultaneously buying and selling correlated assets (hedging), will lower the risk of online trading.

          This gives you an Edge Over the Market.

          And your broker will be paying you overnight Swaps instead of charging you Overnight Fees to hold on to your trades.

          We have a few strategies developed for different types of investors.
          Long-term, short-term, experienced and non-experienced investors who are new to the market can also benefit from the Swap Hunter Trading System Managed PAMM account option.

          Watch this You Tube video to see a more visual demonstration of the Swap Hunter Trading System.
          Lower the risk of Online Trading with the Swap Hunter Trading System

          Check out our various Swap Hunter Trading System Videos.

          The Swap Hunter Trading System has the Correlation Matrix. It will show you which assets to open a hedge trade on. Sorted in order of the strength of their correlations. It calculates and shows you which assets are offering the highest overnight NET Swap payments.

          www.swap-hunter.com

          Swap Hunter Makes it Simple for you.

          Lower the risk of Online Trading with the Swap Hunter Trading System.

          So many MT4 traders do not calculate how much they lose from overnight fees/Swaps on their trades.
          They are not informed by about trading “With the Swaps”

          Swap trading or Carry Trading is very advanced. We have some very advanced, institutional level investment strategies that we can teach you and provide continual trading support, or we can look at our managed portfolios.

          We offer Managed Solutions, PMAM/PAMM solutions. Mentoring, Training and Education. Full client support using the trading system.

          Check out our different software licence packages for the Swap Hunter Trading System here.

          Register on our website or just send us an email to have a FREE consultation call from a Swap Hunter team member.