Rising Bond Yields

Government bond yields rising globally as investors predicted that high inflation pressures would keep interest rates high. While the Federal Reserve is anticipated to deliver another boost by July, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada both surprised markets with a 25bps interest rate increase this week.

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China Exports Tank

In May 2023, China Exports Tank 7.5% year over year to USD 283.5 billion, reversing an 8.5% gain in April and signaling the first reduction since February and the sharpest drop in four months. As a result of insufficient worldwide demand, the most recent print was worse than the market forecast of a 0.4% fall in outbound exports. source: General Administration of Customs

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Will the European Economy improve?

Following a downwardly revised 10.9% decline in March, factory orders in Germany unexpectedly fell by 0.4% in April 2023, missing market expectations of a 3.0% increase. This affected the European Economy. The dip in industrial orders, which was mostly caused by a drop in large-scale orders, continued for the second month in a row. The number of new orders for the manufacture of machinery and equipment fell 6.2%. While the number of new orders for the construction of miscellaneous vehicles—which includes the construction of ships, railway vehicles, aircraft, spacecraft, and army vehicles—down 34%. New orders increased 1.4% when large orders were excluded. Orders for consumer products decreased by 2.5%, and orders for capital goods decreased by 1.7%. The demand for intermediate goods jumped by 2.3%, and orders for motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts increased by 2.4%. While domestic orders increased 1.6%, orders from abroad declined 1.8%, including 2.7% less from the Euro Area. federal statistical office as a source.

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US Jobs Data and NFP

It is the US Jobs Data and NFP release today. Following a jump of 253K in April, the US economy is predicted to have added 190K jobs in May 2023, which would be the second-lowest record since December 2020. The industries of leisure and hospitality are projected to have added the most jobs, while manufacturing employment is predicted to remain stable and tech sector layoffs to continue. In addition, these numbers may be impacted by the Writers Guild of America’s ongoing strike. The unemployment rate is predicted to increase slightly, from 3.4% to 3.5%, although it will still be near to five-decade lows. Pay growth is anticipated to have remained constant at 4.4% and wages are anticipated to have increased by 0.3%, less than the 0.5% increase seen in April. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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The NBS Manufacturing PMI missed market expectations and dropped to a five-month low of 48.8 in May 2023 from 49.2 in April. The most recent data indicated that manufacturing activity had decreased for a second month in a row due to weak domestic and international demand. For the first time in four months, output decreased (49.6 vs. 50.2 in April), while new orders (48.3 vs. 48.8), purchasing activity (49.0 vs. 49.1), and export sales (47.2 vs. 47.6) also declined quicker. For the third consecutive month, employment decreased (48.4 vs. 48.8). Delivery time was also marginally decreased (50.5 vs. 50.3). On the price front, output charges decreased for the third consecutive month, while input costs decreased at the highest rate since last July (40.8 vs 46.4).

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United States Debt Deal

As a result of the expectation that Congress will approve the debt deal, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note dropped to 3.73% from 3.85% the previous week. In a late-Saturday phone chat, House Speaker McCarthy and President Biden came to a tentative agreement. Federal expenditure will be limited for the following two years, and the debt ceiling will be suspended until January 1, 2025. Before it advances to the Senate, the House will probably vote on it on Wednesday. The 4-week bill fell to below 5.5% as yields on shorter-maturity bonds, which have a larger default risk, continued to tumble from recent highs.

Traders are also anticipating important economic data due this week.

Such as the JOLTS, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, and the payrolls report. All of which will affect interest rates, USD, United States Debt deal and most assets you may be invested in.

Here is the Economic Calendar so you don’t miss out

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US Inflation

The Federal Reserve’s hawkish signals and increased optimism regarding the debt ceiling negotiations supported the dollar index’s recent gain to approximately 103.5 today, which is hovering at its highest level in two months. The dollar index has also risen by roughly 0.8% so far this week. It is expected to continue rising this week. Investors held out optimism that a deal would be made to raise the US debt ceiling in order to prevent a default. On Thursday, two Fed members stated that the US inflation does not appear to be slowing down quickly enough to allow the central bank to stop raising interest rates. The likelihood that the Fed will announce another 25 basis point raise next month is now estimated by the markets to be roughly 40%.

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Lots of data coming up that will affect US Inflation

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Japan trade balance

From JPY 854.9 billion in April 2022 to JPY 432.4 billion in April 2023, Japan trade balance decreased, falling short of market estimates of a JPY 613.8 billion deficit. The series of 21 months without a trade surplus was the longest since 2015. Exports increased by 2.6% year over year at JPY 8,288.4 billion, marking the 26th consecutive month of growth but the slowest rate since a decline in February 2021. In the meantime, imports fell for the first time in 27 months. Falling 2.3% to JPY 8,720.8 billion, as expenses were decreased by a stronger yen and falling commodity prices, notably oil. source: Ministry of Finance, Japan

How to make money from Japan trade Balance this data? Where is USD/JPY going to move next?

This is what to look out for this week. Pay close attention to Japanese inflation data and Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday.

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European equity markets

In anticipation of a compromise between US President Joe Biden and congressional leaders to lift the US debt ceiling and prevent a default, European equity markets were set to open higher on Thursday, extending a global surge. However, investors anticipate earnings announcements from companies including Vantage Towers, BT Group, Burberry, EasyJet, and Premier Foods among others. In the meanwhile, there are no significant economic releases in Europe. While FTSE 100 futures wavered around the flatline in premarket activity, DAX and Stoxx 600 futures both increased by roughly 0.4%.

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