📉 Global Economic Update – June 20, 2025

20. June 2025 by Analyst

Stay informed with today’s key macroeconomic and market highlights from the U.S., Japan, Germany, and global equity markets.

🇺🇸 U.S. Manufacturing Remains in Contraction

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index held steady at -4.0 in June 2025, unchanged from May and below market expectations of -1. This marks another month of subdued regional manufacturing activity.

Key Highlights:

New orders stayed positive but weakened.
Shipments improved and turned positive.
Employment fell sharply, reaching its lowest level since May 2020, signaling a drop in factory jobs.
Price pressures eased slightly but remain historically high.
Outlook: Business optimism is waning, with fewer firms expecting growth in the next six months.

👉 Takeaway: Continued weakness in manufacturing could influence the Fed’s policy stance going forward.

🇯🇵 Japan Inflation Eases, Core CPI Surges

Japan’s annual inflation rate fell slightly to 3.5% in May 2025, down from 3.6% in the previous two months. However, core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) rose to 3.7%, the highest in over two years.

Breakdown:

Declines in prices for clothing, healthcare, and household goods.
Housing, recreation, and communications saw rising costs.
Rice prices skyrocketed over 100% year-over-year, showing limited impact from government price controls.

👉 Takeaway: Inflation remains a concern ahead of Japan’s summer elections, adding complexity to BoJ policy decisions.

🇩🇪 German Producer Prices Drop Sharply

Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 1.2% year-over-year in May 2025, marking the third straight month of decline and the sharpest drop since September 2024.

Details:

Energy prices fell sharply:
- Electricity: -8.1%
- Natural gas: -7.1%
- Heating oil: -10.2%
Excluding energy, producer prices rose 1.3% YoY.
Monthly PPI dropped 0.2%, better than the expected 0.3% decline.

👉 Takeaway: Cooling input prices support the ECB’s disinflation narrative but won’t remove all pressure from sticky core inflation.

📊 U.S. Markets Set for a Lower Open

After Wednesday’s Juneteenth holiday, U.S. stock futures point to a slightly lower open as investors react to:

Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
President Trump’s delayed decision on Iran, while strikes from Israel continue.
Oil prices retreat, weighing on energy stocks.
CarMax expected to open 10%+ higher after strong earnings.
Triple Witching Day could increase market volatility.

👉 Takeaway: Risk appetite remains fragile. Expect choppy trading as geopolitical uncertainty and technical factors weigh on sentiment.

📌 Final Thoughts

Economic data continues to paint a mixed global picture—slowing growth, sticky inflation, and rising geopolitical risks. Investors should brace for near-term volatility and monitor central bank signals closely.

Established in 2005 a Trusted Broker with 20 years in the Industry

Trade over 20,000 instruments including Forex, Metals, Shares, Indices, Commodities & Cryptocurrencies.

Security of funds $1,000,000 Excess Loss Insurance policy with Lloyd’s of London

regulated by ASIC, AUSTRAC, BAFIN, CIMA, ESCA, CySEC, FSC, FMA, MAS, TFG and VFSC.

25+ Offices Located within the Financial Centres of the World

Withdrawals completed within 24 hours

Tier 1 Level Banking

Segregated Client Accounts

B Rating by Standard & Poor’s

Take your first step towards Financial Freedom with a Swap Hunter Trading Account

🌍 Market Update: European Stocks Dip Amid Geopolitical Risks, Fed Decision in Focus

18. June 2025 by Analyst

European Markets Open Lower

European equity markets were set to open lower on Wednesday as investors digested rising geopolitical tensions and awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

Euro Stoxx 50 futures slipped 0.3%
Stoxx 600 futures edged down 0.2%

Sentiment was hit by comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and threatened to strike Supreme Leader Khamenei, further escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Investors are also eyeing:

UK inflation data
Sweden’s Riksbank policy decision

Both could influence European interest rate expectations.

📉 Japan’s Exports Decline Amid Tariff Pressures

Japan’s exports fell 1.7% year-on-year in May 2025 to a four-month low of JPY 8.13 trillion, reversing a 2% gain in April. This marked the first decline since September 2024.

Shipments to the U.S.: ↓ 11.1%
Exports to China: ↓ 8.8%
Increases: EU (+4.9%), Russia (+5.2%), ASEAN (+0.1%)

Trade War Impact

The decline came as U.S. tariffs bite, especially on autos, auto parts, and chip machinery. Japan is seeking exemption from 25% U.S. auto tariffs, while Trump has doubled duties on steel and aluminum to 50%. A 24% retaliatory tariff from Japan is scheduled for July 9, unless a deal is reached.

🪙 Gold Slips as Dollar Gains, But Central Banks Remain Bullish

Gold prices edged lower to around $3,380/oz on Wednesday. A stronger U.S. dollar weighed on prices, even as Middle East tensions drove safe-haven demand.

Key Drivers:

Israel conducted strikes near Tehran
Iran launched missiles in retaliation
Trump held a national security meeting, sparking fears of U.S. military involvement

Meanwhile, a World Gold Council survey revealed:

95% of central banks expect global gold reserves to rise
43% plan to increase their own holdings — a record high

💵 U.S. Dollar Eases After Tuesday Surge

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dipped slightly to 98.6 after a near 1% gain on Tuesday, driven by safe-haven flows due to the Israel-Iran conflict.

What to Watch:

Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady
Market focus is on forward guidance
Upcoming U.S. data: housing starts and jobless claims

Despite weaker retail sales in May, consumer spending remains resilient, underpinned by strong wage growth.

📌 Takeaway

Global markets remain on edge as geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and monetary policy uncertainty collide. Investors are bracing for potential volatility spikes driven by:

Fed’s policy stance
Ongoing Middle East conflict
Looming U.S.-Japan tariff deadlines

Stay tuned for more updates and subscribe for a consultation from Swap Hunter and real-time market insights.

US Market Recap – Tuesday: Stocks Slip on Geopolitical Tensions and Weak Data

17. June 2025 by Analyst

Wall Street saw a modest pullback on Tuesday, with all three major U.S. stock indices falling around 0.3%. The retreat came amid escalating geopolitical tensions and signs of a cooling U.S. economy.

Geopolitical Pressures Rattle Investors

Market sentiment took a hit after President Trump downplayed prospects for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, and urged Tehran residents to evacuate—a move that stoked fears of broader conflict in the Middle East.

These developments added a risk-off tone to the trading session, leading to defensive positioning across sectors.

Economic Data Disappoints

Retail Sales Miss Expectations

Retail sales for May contracted more than analysts anticipated, suggesting that consumer spending is slowing. The weakness may reflect the growing impact of tariffs and ongoing policy uncertainty on household behavior.

Import Prices Show No Growth

Meanwhile, import prices excluding tariffs were flat in May, a sign of waning trade demand that could pressure growth in coming quarters.

Stock Highlights: Movers & Shakers

🟥 T-Mobile (NASDAQ: TMUS)

-4%
Shares fell after SoftBank sold part of its stake to reinvest in AI initiatives, prompting a wave of profit-taking.

🟩 ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) & Chevron (NYSE: CVX)

Both energy giants gained as oil prices rose, buoyed by mounting geopolitical risks and supply concerns.

🟩 Verve Therapeutics (NASDAQ: VERV)

+75% to $10.90
The biotech stock surged after Eli Lilly announced a buyout at $10.50 per share. The premium acquisition price signals bullish sentiment in the gene-editing space.

**Click on image for Google search results on US500 Updates and Analysis**

Conclusion

Tuesday’s market dip highlights how global instability and softening economic data continue to influence investor behavior. As Wall Street watches both policy moves and geopolitical flashpoints, volatility may persist in the near term.

Register your details for a consultation with Swap Hunter

**Scan QR code or click on image to Get your Multibank Group, MEX Atlantic Trading Account**

Tags:
US stock market, market recap, T-Mobile, Verve Therapeutics, ExxonMobil, Chevron, oil prices, Trump Iran, retail sales, economic data, Wall Street today

How Much of Your Portfolio Should Be in Cash or Forex?

14. June 2025 by Analyst

When building or managing a portfolio, one of the most overlooked but crucial components is your cash and FX (foreign exchange) allocation. While many investors focus on stocks, crypto, or real estate, holding the right amount of liquid assets can significantly enhance your financial stability, flexibility, and overall strategy.

Why Cash and FX Matter

Cash provides liquidity. It allows you to take advantage of opportunities quickly, cover unexpected expenses, and weather downturns without panic selling. FX (foreign currencies like USD, EUR, or JPY) can serve as a hedge, especially if you’re exposed to international assets or geopolitical risk.

General Guidelines Based on Investor Type

1. Long-Term Investors (Passive Strategy)

If you’re primarily focused on long-term growth with a buy-and-hold strategy, a smaller cash allocation is typical.

Portfolio Size	Suggested Cash/FX Allocation
<$100,000	5% – 10%
$100,000+	2% – 5%

Purpose: Emergency liquidity, buying dips, or portfolio rebalancing.

2. Active Traders and Speculators

If you trade crypto, stocks, or CFDs, you need more liquidity to remain agile.

Strategy Type	Suggested Cash/FX Allocation
High-frequency trading	5% – 20%
Swing trader	10% – 30%
CFD/multi-asset trading	20% – 40%

Why more cash? To manage margin, fund trades quickly, and handle drawdowns.

3. Conservative/Wealth Preservation Investors

Age and risk appetite affect how much cash you should hold.

Age Group	Suggested Cash Allocation
Under 40	5% – 10%
40–60	10% – 20%
60+	20% – 40%

Purpose: Reduce volatility, maintain access to funds, and protect principal.

When to Increase Your Cash/FX Position

Anticipating a market downturn or recession
Planning for a large purchase or investment
Experiencing high portfolio volatility
Preparing to rebalance or rotate assets

Rule of Thumb

“Keep enough in cash and FX to sleep well at night, but not so much that inflation eats it away.”

Final Thoughts

Your ideal cash or FX allocation depends on your goals, timeline, and risk tolerance. Revisit it regularly, especially in changing market conditions. Liquidity is power—but too much can be a drag on growth.

Need help figuring out your ideal allocation? Organise a free consultation with Swap Hunter to ensure your portfolio is optimized for both opportunity and protection.

**Ready to diversify your Portfolio into FX? Multibank Group, MEX Atlantic are a smart choice. Scan QR code to register or just click on the image and be directed to their Account Registration page.**

Dollar Index Sinks to Lowest Level Since 2022 Amid Trade and Geopolitical Tensions

13. June 202512. June 2025 by Analyst

The U.S. Dollar Index extended its decline on Thursday, dropping below 97.8—its lowest level since 2022—as a combination of trade uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and soft economic data weighed heavily on market sentiment.

Renewed Trade Tensions Trigger Investor Concerns

President Donald Trump announced plans to send formal letters to major U.S. trading partners within the next one to two weeks. These letters will outline unilateral tariff measures aimed at pressuring countries into new trade agreements. This development comes ahead of the expiration of the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs next month, fueling concerns about a potential escalation in global trade tensions.

Geopolitical Risks Add to Dollar Weakness

Market anxiety intensified further after Iran threatened to strike U.S. military bases if ongoing nuclear negotiations collapse. These heightened geopolitical risks have triggered a shift toward safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, contributing to additional downward pressure on the greenback.

Weak U.S. Inflation Data Fuels Rate Cut Expectations

Adding to the dollar’s slide, U.S. inflation data released Wednesday came in below expectations, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice before the end of the year. Softer inflation reduces the urgency for tightening monetary policy, weakening demand for U.S. assets and the dollar itself.

Biggest Losses Against Euro, Franc, and Yen

The dollar posted its sharpest declines against the:

Euro (EUR)
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Japanese Yen (JPY)

These currencies benefited from both relative economic strength and their safe-haven status amid global uncertainty.

Some Other FX crosses that have profit potential.

Bottom Line: With trade threats looming, geopolitical instability rising, and inflation cooling, the dollar may remain under pressure in the coming weeks. Investors are likely to stay cautious and watch for signals from both the Federal Reserve and global policymakers.

Want to miss out on some solid profits? Open a Trading Account with Multibank Group today. Scan QR code or click on image to register.

Tags: Dollar Index, USD, Forex, Geopolitics, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Tariffs, Trump, Iran, Safe Haven, Currency Market, Interest Rates

📊 Market Calm Before the Storm: Why Swap-Hunter Thrives in Uncertainty

9. June 2025 by Analyst

As markets await U.S.–China trade talks and critical inflation data, Swap-Hunter’s trading system gives you the tactical edge to profit—no matter the volatility.

Global stock markets opened cautiously this week, with U.S. futures hovering near flat. For many traders, this signals indecision. But at Swap-Hunter, this is where our trading system shines.

Whether it’s geopolitical risk, inflation uncertainty, or headline-driven swings, our system thrives on structure—not speculation.

🌍 What’s Moving the Market This Week?

U.S.–China Trade Talks (June 9) – High-level negotiations resume in London.
CPI and PPI Inflation Data – Key indicators ahead of the Fed’s June meeting.
Fed Rate Decision (June 17–18) – Rate cut speculation building.
Geopolitical Risk – Domestic protests and National Guard deployment add market tension.

🔄 What This Means for Traders

While traditional systems wait for breakouts or trend confirmations, Swap-Hunter works within the noise. Our system capitalizes on:

Flat Markets – Ideal for range-bound swaps and intraday structure plays.
Volatility Surges – Our setup detects liquidity zones that react to news-based momentum.
Institutional Footprints – Identify where real volume is being deployed—not just where price moves.

📈 S&P 500 Snapshot

The S&P recently reclaimed the 6,000 level and is now just 2.3% off all-time highs. Rather than chase tops, our system monitors rotational liquidity and traps.

Example chart: Rotation zones identified by the Swap-Hunter system

⚙️ Why Swap-Hunter Is Built for This

Markets are not always trending. In fact, they spend most of their time consolidating. This is where Swap-Hunter’s rules-based, volatility-adaptive system gives you:

High-probability setups in quiet markets
Dynamic risk management around key macro events
Real-time structural edge vs. reactive trading

✅ Your Next Move

Don’t sit on the sidelines while others guess the outcome of this week’s data and talks. Trade with structure. Trade with precision.

🔗 Join Swap-Hunter today and start trading the markets with confidence—whatever headlines come next.

Tags: U.S.–China Trade, CPI, PPI, Fed Meeting, Trading System, Swap-Hunter, S&P 500, Market Structure

US Job Data Cools Less Than Expected in May – What It Means for Markets and Workers

9. June 2025 by Analyst

How to Trade Forex and Jobs Data with Swap Hunter

In a surprising turn, the latest US job data suggest that the labour market is more resilient than analysts had projected. According to the recent payroll data, US nonfarm employment increased by 139,000 jobs in May, slightly lower than April’s revised figure of 147,000 but higher than the consensus estimate of 130,000.

This unexpected uptick challenges earlier concerns of a sharper slowdown, amid fears of new tariffs and broader economic headwinds. While the pace of job creation has softened, the labour market continues to send mixed signals that demand a closer look.

Key Highlights:

May Job Growth: +139K (vs. 130K expected)
April Revisions: Downwardly adjusted to +147K
Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.2%

Sector-Specific Trends

Employment growth wasn’t evenly distributed. Some industries fared better than others:

Healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance showed steady gains, signaling continued demand for services and care-related roles.
Manufacturing and federal government jobs experienced a decline—potential early signs of budget tightening or shifting production dynamics due to supply chain constraints and tariff concerns.

This pattern reinforces the notion that while the US job engine is still running, it’s shifting gears.

What This Means for Workers

For job seekers, the positive news is that the unemployment rate remains stable, and key service sectors continue to hire. However, those in more cyclical or government-tied industries may want to stay alert to shifting priorities and potential policy changes.

Implications for Markets and Policy

Wall Street had braced for a sharper pullback in hiring, so this report could bring temporary relief. Still, policymakers at the Federal Reserve will likely keep a close eye on wage trends and broader economic indicators before making any interest rate adjustments.

If the economy continues to tread this fine line—neither overheating nor collapsing—it may lend weight to the case for a “soft landing” scenario, which economists have debated for months.

Final Thoughts US Jobs Data

May’s job data serves as a reminder that economic momentum doesn’t vanish overnight—it tapers, recalibrates, and shifts. For businesses and workers alike, staying flexible and responsive to these trends will be crucial in the coming months.

Stay tuned to Swap Hunter for regular updates on the economy, job market trends, and how these shifts impact your career, investments, and day-to-day decisions.

Have thoughts on how these trends could affect your industry? Drop your insights in the comments or connect with us on social media.

Successfully Trade Swaps in Forex

7. June 20257. June 2025 by Analyst

Being charged Swaps by your Forex Broker

Swap Hunter will Make Money from Swaps in Forex

Retail Forex investors are not aware of Swaps until it is too late. Mainly due to a lack of information and education.

By the time they are aware, their account manager is giving them a high pressure margin call.

There is nothing quite as satisfying as beating your broker and withdrawing a healthy profit to your bank account.

Especially when you are being paid Swaps, not the other way around.

Swap Hunter was designed to do exactly that.

To give you an edge over the broker.

The most important aspect of being a successful trader is to keep your composure. To have a strategy.

Plan ahead and consistently make money.

All with minimal risk and stress.

It is easy when you know how and have the right tools.

Simple and effective solution

Get in touch for more information.

Get Paid to Trade!

Beat the broker, Beat the Bank, with Swap Hunter.

Scan the QR code to get your MEX Atlantic Multibank Group trading account today.

Inflation Rate Swap Hunter

19. April 202419. April 2024 by Analyst

Japan’s Inflation Rate

Japan’s annual inflation rate fell slightly to 2.7% in March 2024 from a three-month high of 2.8% in February, in line with market expectations. Slightly below estimates of 2.7%, the core inflation rate dropped to 2.6% from a four-month peak of 2.8%. Following two months of leveling, monthly consumer prices increased by 0.2% in March, the highest level since October of previous year. Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications as the source

Please study SWAP HUNTER strategies to BEAT YOUR BROKER and THE BANKS.

Asian Stocks Open Lower

17. April 202417. April 2024 by Analyst

Asian Stocks Looking Negative at Open

Asian Stocks Open Lower

Asian Stocks Fall Following Concerning Powell Remarks: Markets Wrap US rates surged on Tuesday following Powell’s indication of a postponement of a rate decrease. A key Asia stock barometer momentarily erases 2024 gains as concerns escalate.

In March 2024, Asian Stocks and Japan’s trade balance saw significant changes compared to the previous year. Japan’s trade balance shifted from a deficit of JPY 750.854 billion to a surplus of JPY 366.467 billion. This change was driven by increased exports and decreased imports, resulting in the first trade surplus in three months. Shipments surged by 7.3% year over year in May, reaching JPY 9,469.60 billion, the highest in three months, fueled by strong demand from the US and China. However, imports, mainly mineral fuels, fell by 4.9% to JPY 9,103.13 billion, marking the second dip of the year. Despite this improvement, Japan recorded a trade deficit of JPY 9.29 trillion in 2023, marking the third consecutive year of deficit.

Beat your broker with Swap Hunter trading strategies involving correlated currency pairs and hedging them in a specific way.

Then you have your edge over the broker or bank.

Then you will get paid in overnight fees instead of being charged.

You beat the bank.

Get in touch through all social media platforms.

Get a FREE copy of our Swap Hunter Package when you invest $1,000 with one of our Recommended Brokers.

Organize a consultation on our Telegram Channel