Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones believes the stock market is poised for a powerful surge before reaching the final phase of its bull run.
Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box, the Tudor Investment founder said that today’s market setup feels strikingly similar to the one seen in late 1999, just before the dot-com bubble burst.
“My guess is that all the ingredients are in place for some kind of a blow off,” Jones said. “History rhymes a lot, so I would think some version of it is going to happen again. If anything, now is so much more potentially explosive than 1999.”
Jones pointed to rising speculation, skyrocketing technology shares, and the AI investment frenzy as key parallels to the late 1990s. He noted that circular deals and vendor financing within the artificial intelligence sector are beginning to echo the excesses that fueled the previous bubble.
However, Jones emphasized a crucial difference this time: the U.S. fiscal and monetary backdrop. With robust government spending and supportive monetary policy, he believes the bull market still has room to run before reaching its “blow-off” top.
The Nasdaq Composite, heavily weighted toward mega-cap tech companies, has already soared 55% since April, hitting consecutive record highs. The rally has been powered by investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and the future earnings potential of tech giants.
While Jones cautioned that speculative behavior could lead to an overheated market, his outlook suggests significant upside potential remains in the near term — particularly as investor optimism continues to build around AI-driven innovation.
Gold gains on safe-haven demand, steady US Treasury yields, and Trump’s tariffs kicking in.
Continuing Claims reach levels last seen in November 2021, fueling dovish Fed bets.
Stagflation risks emerge as inflation stays elevated while US employment weakens.
Gold price reverses its course and registers solid gains on Thursday as the latest round of jobs data in the US points to a weakening labor market. Consequently, investors increased their dovish bets as the Fed is expected to resume its easing cycle in September. The XAU/USD trades at $3,385, up 0.45%.
Earlier, the Department of Labor revealed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose above estimates, compared to the prior print. Although the print was close to forecasts, economists’ focus shifted to Continuing Claims, which rose toward levels last seen in November 2021.
Recent weakness in the labor market, alongside higher prices, raised concerns among economists. A Bloomberg headline reads, “Stagflation Concerns Ripple Through Wall Street as Tariffs Hit”.
Bullion prices pushed higher as investors seeking safety bought the non-yielding metal, which was also underpinned by the fall of US Treasury yields.
Meanwhile, higher tariffs set by US President Donald Trump took effect on Thursday, providing a tailwind for Gold. The countries affected are Switzerland, Brazil and India, which have been unable to strike a deal with Washington.
Traders’ eyes turn to Fed officials’ speeches, with participants eyeing cues about the central bank’s next move. On the data front, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for August will be unveiled, along with inflation expectations.
Daily digest market movers: Gold boosted by Continuing Claims as stagflation woes increase
US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 2 rose by 228K, above estimates of 221K and the prior print of 218K. Even though the data hints at the ongoing cooling of the labor market, Continuing Claims were the main reason that investors became concerned about a stagflationary scenario. Claims increased to 1.97 million in the week ended July 26, hitting its highest level since November 2021.
Initially, the US Dollar fell, though it recovered some ground, on breaking news that the Trump administration is considering current Fed Governor Christopher Waller to become the next Fed Chair.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the Buck’s value against a basket of its peers, is up 0.10% at 98.29. The US Dollar’s recovery capped Gold’s advance toward $3,400.
The US 10-year Treasury note yield was losing three basis points, though it has paired those losses, sitting at 4.24% unchanged though failing to cap Gold prices.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated his view that one cut is appropriate for this year but added that there is a lot of data before the next meeting.
Fed Interest Rate Probabilities show that traders had priced in a 95% chance of a quarter of a percentage rate cut at the September meeting, according to Prime Market Terminal data.
Technical outlook: Gold price remains bullish, but traders are reluctant to clear $3,400
Gold price continues to advance steadily, following the August 1 aggressive 2% gain that drove the yellow metal up from around $3,281 toward $3,363. Since then, the XAU/USD has meandered within the $3,350-$3,397 range, with buyers yet unable to crack the $3,400 figure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that bulls are in charge as the index rises, though it remains below the latest peak.
For a bullish continuation, buyers need to climb above $3,400. This clears the way to challenge June’s 16 peak at $3,452, followed by the record high of $3,500. Conversely, if XAU/USD tumbles below the confluence of the 50-day and 20-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) around $3,350/$3,346, expect Gold prices to slide toward the 100-day SMA at $3,275, previously breaking $3,300.
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Sterling drops to 1.3440 against the US Dollar as the Greenback rebounds.
The US Dollar gains even as Washington faces mass lay-offs risks amid the government shutdown.
Investors await speech from BoE Governor Bailey at 17:30 GMT.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades 0.3% lower to near 1.3440 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The GBP/USD pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar rebounds strongly despite growing risks that the White House would be forced to make mass lay-offs in the wake of a partial United States (US) government shutdown.
The USD (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, gains 0.55% to near 98.25.
Longer term outlook above and then a slightly shorter term analysis.
Silver (XAG/USD) is pulling back after touching recent highs above $39.00. Now trading below $38.50 as the US Dollar extends its rally. The decline comes as the US Dollar Index (DXY) posts gains for the fourth consecutive session.
Supported by a weak Euro amid political turmoil in France.
Although markets remain cautious about the Federal Reserve’s independence and rising expectations of rate cuts, the Greenback’s resilience is keeping precious metals under pressure.
Technical Analysis: $38.35 Support Key for Silver Bears
From a technical perspective, XAG/USD shows a bearish correction from last week’s one-month high at $39.07. Price action is testing support at $38.35 (August 25–26 lows).
A break below $38.35 could drag Silver toward the August 22 low at $37.70, with the next support at $37.25, the lower boundary of the ascending channel.
On the upside, immediate resistance lies near $38.75 and $38.85, followed by the August 22 high at $39.10 and July 22 high at $39.55.
Outlook for Traders
Silver traders should closely watch the $38.35 support zone. A downside break may accelerate bearish momentum, while a rebound above $38.75 could bring back buyers targeting $39.10 and beyond.
For now, Dollar strength remains the dominant driver, leaving Silver vulnerable to further declines.
Gold (XAU/USD) surged to a two-week high on Tuesday as uncertainty deepened following President Trump’s surprise move to fire Federal Reserve Governor Cook. The market reaction highlights renewed demand for safe-haven assets amid political and monetary tensions in the U.S.
Political Shock Fuels Gold Demand
The latest escalation between Trump and U.S. policymakers has rattled investors. While Trump’s earlier campaign to remove Fed Chair Powell stalled, his dismissal of Governor Cook revives concerns about political interference in monetary policy.
Markets now speculate whether Trump will push harder to secure a more dovish majority within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), after failing to convince members to deliver deeper rate cuts.
Technical Outlook: Bulls Gaining Momentum
Gold’s surge cracked a key barrier at $3385 (upper triangle boundary / Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of the $3408–$331 bear leg). However, a decisive break above remains elusive.
Bullish Signals: A potential bullish engulfing pattern is forming on the daily chart, while price action remains underpinned by the thick Ichimoku cloud.
To maintain bullish momentum, traders will look for:
A daily close above $3360 (broken 50% Fibo level).
A close above $3371 (broken 61.8% Fibo) to boost optimism for a breakout.
Such moves would open the way toward $3400–$3408, with further resistance at $3431.
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: 3385, 3400, 3408, 3431 – Swap Hunter gives you the best prices to SELL at to Earn the best Swaps.
Support: 3371, 3360, 3353, 3348 – Swap Hunter gives you the best hedge trade to minimize your Risk.
Bottom Line
Gold remains well-supported by uncertainty around Trump’s clash with the Fed. A break above $3385 could confirm bullish momentum, with the $3400–$3408 zone acting as a critical barrier. However, traders should remain cautious of overbought conditions and watch daily closes for confirmation.
Silver (XAG/USD) rebounds from a two-week low as the US Dollar weakens and traders await the Fed’s July meeting minutes. Will XAG/USD break higher from its symmetrical triangle pattern?
Silver Price Rebound Amid Dollar Weakness
Silver (XAG/USD) staged a sharp recovery on Wednesday, snapping a four-day losing streak after dropping to its lowest level since August 4. The metal found support as the US Dollar retreated, pressured by political headlines after President Trump called for the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook.
At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $37.80, up nearly 1% on the day, after rebounding from an intraday low of $36.96. The move comes as markets turn cautious ahead of the release of the FOMC July meeting minutes at 18:00 GMT, which may shape expectations for the Fed’s inflation outlook and rate trajectory.
Silver Technical Analysis: Triangle Pattern in Play
On the 4-hour chart, Silver is trading within a symmetrical triangle formation, consolidating recent price action. The rebound from the lower boundary near $37.00 suggests strong buying interest at this support zone.
Immediate resistance sits at the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $37.76.
A sustained breakout above this level could open the door toward $38.20, the upper boundary of the triangle and a key psychological mark.
Further upside targets include $38.74 (August 14 swing high) and $39.53, a multi-year peak.
On the downside:
A failure to clear the 100-SMA may keep Silver confined within the triangle.
A break below $37.00 support could trigger bearish momentum, exposing $36.50 and $35.90 as the next demand levels.
Momentum Indicators Signal Potential Shift
RSI: After briefly dipping into oversold territory, the Relative Strength Index has rebounded toward the midline, signaling improving intraday strength.
MACD: The histogram is narrowing, with the MACD line nearing a bullish crossover above the signal line—an early sign that bearish pressure is fading.
These technical signals suggest a potential bullish reversal is underway if Silver can secure a breakout above resistance.
Silver Price Forecast: Outlook
Silver’s near-term outlook hinges on the Fed’s July meeting minutes and the US Dollar’s reaction. A dovish tilt in the Fed’s inflation or rate outlook could weaken the Dollar further, providing support for Silver prices. Conversely, a hawkish tone may cap gains and keep XAG/USD trapped within its current range.
In summary:
Above $38.20 → bullish momentum may accelerate toward $38.74 and $39.53.
Below $37.00 → sellers could regain control, targeting $36.50 and $35.90.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovered around 97.8 on Monday, with investors balancing geopolitical risk and monetary policy signals.
Traders are watching a pivotal meeting in Washington between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, alongside this week’s Federal Reserve Jackson Hole Symposium.
Trump–Zelenskiy Meeting and Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks
Markets are closely monitoring US efforts to push for a resolution in the Russia-Ukraine war.
Trump said he would encourage Zelenskiy to pursue a “quick settlement,” building on his Friday talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
While no ceasefire breakthrough was reached, Putin agreed to allow the US and Europe to provide Ukraine with security guarantees as part of a potential framework.
The presence of European leaders at today’s Washington meeting signals growing urgency for a diplomatic path forward.
This geopolitical backdrop has supported safe-haven demand for gold while keeping the dollar steady.
Federal Reserve: Jackson Hole and September Rate Cut
Markets are pricing an 84% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September 2025, according to Fed funds futures.
Stronger-than-expected US producer inflation and retail sales data have reduced the likelihood of a larger 50 bps cut.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to give guidance at Jackson Hole later this week, while the minutes from the Fed’s last meeting will provide additional clarity on the path forward.
The outcome could shape the next big move for both the dollar and gold prices.
New Zealand Services Sector Still Weak
The latest BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) showed the New Zealand services sector remained under pressure:
PSI rose slightly to 48.9 in July from 47.6 in June, marking the sixth consecutive month of contraction.
Sub-index breakdown: Activity/Sales (47.5) and Employment (47.1) contracted, while New Orders (50.0) were flat and Inventories (51.4) expanded.
Business sentiment remains soft, with 58.5% of firms reporting negative conditions, though that’s an improvement from June (66.2%).
Firms cited weak demand, inflationary pressures, high interest rates, and global uncertainty as key challenges.
Gold Prices Rebound Above $3,350
After hitting a two-week low earlier in the session, gold prices recovered to $3,350 per ounce.
The rebound was driven by safe-haven demand ahead of the Trump-Zelenskiy peace talks.
Traders are also waiting for Powell’s Jackson Hole speech for direction on Fed policy.
If the Fed confirms a September rate cut, gold could gain further momentum in the weeks ahead.
📌 Key Takeaway
Global markets are treading cautiously as geopolitics and monetary policy dominate sentiment.
The dollar is steady,
Gold is rising,
New Zealand’s services sector remains weak, and
Investors await Powell’s guidance at Jackson Hole to gauge the Fed’s next move.
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for July 2025 surged 0.9% month-over-month, marking the sharpest increase since June 2022. This rebound from June’s flat reading easily beat market forecasts of a 0.2% rise, highlighting stronger-than-expected inflation pressures.
Services costs led the gain, climbing 1.1% in July. The biggest driver was a 3.8% jump in margins for machinery and equipment wholesaling, with additional increases in portfolio management, securities brokerage, investment advisory services, traveler accommodations, automobile retailing, and truck freight transportation.
Goods prices also rose 0.7%, fueled by a staggering 38.9% surge in fresh and dry vegetable prices. Other contributors included higher costs for meats, diesel fuel, jet fuel, nonferrous scrap, and eggs, partially offset by a 1.8% drop in gasoline.
The core Producer Price Index—excluding food and energy—also climbed 0.9%, far above the expected 0.2%.
On a yearly basis, headline producer inflation accelerated to 3.3%, the highest in five months, while core PPI jumped to 3.7% from 2.6% in June. Both figures came in well above analyst expectations, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s path toward interest rate cuts later this year. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Economic Calendar Displaying todays PPI data and Jobs data.
📉 US Jobless Claims Fall More Than Expected
U.S. initial jobless claims slipped to 224,000 in early July 2025, down 3,000 from the prior week and below forecasts of 228,000. Continued claims eased by 15,000 to 1.953 million, retreating from a three-year high.
The labor market remains solid despite signs of slowing, with hiring cooling and payroll figures recently revised lower. Federal government employee claims—closely watched after DOGE layoffs—fell by 71 to 637. source: U.S. Department of Labor
All this points to a stronger USD. But we think it will retrace pretty quickly. Get ready for some “whipsaw” action later in todays trading session and coming days.
Former President Donald Trump took aim at Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon on Tuesday, poking fun at his side gig as a DJ while blasting the bank’s past economic forecasts.
“David Solomon and Goldman Sachs refuse to give credit where credit is due,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “They made a bad prediction a long time ago on both the Market repercussion and the Tariffs themselves, and they were wrong, just like they are wrong about so much else.”
Inflation Numbers Trigger Trump’s Remarks
Trump’s comments followed the release of the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report — a key measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported year-over-year inflation at 2.7%, slightly below analyst forecasts of 2.8%.
The Federal Reserve, led by Chair Jerome Powell, has maintained interest rates while evaluating the inflationary impact of tariffs.
Trump took the latest CPI data as validation of his economic stance:
“It has been proven, that even at this late stage, Tariffs have not caused Inflation, or any other problems for America, other than massive amounts of CASH pouring into our Treasury’s coffers,” he said.
Solomon Joins Growing List of CEO Targets
Solomon is the latest high-profile executive in Trump’s firing line. Just last week, the former president called for Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s resignation — before reversing course after meeting with him at the White House on Monday.
With this latest jab, Trump continues his pattern of publicly challenging corporate leaders, often blending policy criticism with personal ridicule.
• A market valuation metric popularized by Warren Buffett is at an all-time high of roughly 208%. • Buffett has said that anytime this indicator approaches 200%, investors are “playing with fire.” • History has proven Buffett right in the past.
Even after Warren Buffett steps down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) (NYSE: BRK.B), his legacy will live on. So will an indicator that bears his name.
Buffett told Fortune magazine in 2001 that this metric, now known as the Buffett indicator, is “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” And now the Buffett indicator is at the highest level ever, sending a warning.
What is the Buffett indicator?
The Buffett Indicator measures the ratio of the total U.S. stock market capitalization to U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Low Readings (70–80%) → Historically great buying opportunities.
High Readings (200%+) → Elevated risk of overvaluation.
Originally, Buffett used Gross National Product (GNP), but GDP is now more commonly applied in the calculation.
The Buffett Indicator, also known as the Market Cap to GDP Ratio, is a valuation metric used to assess whether the stock market is overvalued or undervalued relative to the economy. It is calculated by dividing the total market capitalization of a country’s stock market by its gross domestic product (GDP).
In a sense, the Buffett indicator is similar to the most widely used stock valuation metric — the price-to-earnings ratio. Instead of the share price of a single stock, the total market cap of all U.S. stocks is used. Instead of the earnings generated by a single company, the metric uses the total value generated by everyone in the U.S.
With the Buffett indicator and the price-to-earnings ratio, a lower number reflects a more attractive valuation. Buffett hinted at an ideal range for his namesake metric in the 2001 Fortune article, saying, “If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you.”
Here are various images of the Buffet Indicator demonstrating it’s accuracy to predict price action.
History lesson
As you might have guessed, the Buffett indicator isn’t anywhere close to the 70% to 80% range right now. It’s slightly over 208%, the highest level the indicator has ever reached! If you want to know why Buffett isn’t buying many stocks these days, the Buffett indicator probably explains it.
Buffett’s concern about a high market valuation as measured by the Buffett indicator has been justified by history. He mentioned the indicator spiking in 1999 and 2000, reaching what was then an all-time high. Many investors remember what happened soon afterward. The dot-com bubble burst, with the S&P 500(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) plunging nearly 50% below its previous peak by late 2002.
The Buffett indicator again came close to hitting 200% in November 2021. Within a matter of weeks, the S&P 500 began to sink and eventually fell as much as 25%.
Will the stock market crash again soon?
These historical precedents aren’t encouraging for investors. However, the Buffett indicator isn’t great at predicting short-term stock market moves. For example, the indicator has been above its level in early 2000 (right before the dot-com bubble burst) for most of the period since 2018. During this time, the S&P 500 has soared more than 130%, albeit with significant volatility. However, there’s no getting around the fact that U.S. stocks are historically expensive.
The Buffett indicator isn’t the only metric that reflects this.
The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio, popularized by Yale economics professor Robert Shiller, is near its third-highest level ever.
Stock valuations don’t tend to remain above historic levels for too long. Sooner or later, they will return to a more normal range. With the Buffett indicator at an all-time high, investors probably should brace themselves for what the stock market might do over the near term and almost certainly will do eventually – revert to the mean average, meaning huge declines across all global stock market Indices.
What Should Investors Do Now?
Stay disciplined – focus on long-term investment strategies rather than short-term market timing.
Don’t panic, but be cautious – high valuations increase risk. So it is time to start hedging, find correlated assets and create multiple hedges to balance your portfolio to preserve equity, minimize risk exposure, generate swaps, and create potential to make money on the downside and eventually the upside once the correction is over and markets start recovering.
Diversify your portfolio – to manage volatility. Many stock pickers/investors are moving into Forex, Cryptocurrency ETF’s, Commodities and other Asset Classes.
Cryptocurrencies– Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple and Litecoin have had a lot of coverage recently for multiple reasons. Spot Crypto ETF’s and Stable Coins like USDC are gaining a lot traction and attracting many institutional level investors and the Banks with new legislation being passed post the latest U.S. election. We are happy to go into more detail with you in a private consultation.
Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg sits down with CNBC Crypto World to discuss spot crypto ETFs and regulatory advancements for digital assets in the United States.
Other Asset Classes to consider – Renewable Energies, Water, Data Mining, Rare Earth Metals, AI individual stocks and ETF’s are all places you want some exposure.
Indices – we have started taking short positions on the DOW, NASDAQ, S&P500, DAX30 and NIKKEI. Most of these are also offering a positive swap right now.
What Strategy Should investors use?
Strategy is everything. Our Carry Trade strategies at Swap Hunter offer risk minimization, equity preservation and slow and steady wealth generation. we always hear feedback from our clients how our system is low stress and requires little need for them to be glued to their screens all day and night using technical analysis, watching for data releases and news headlines that cause big movements on the markets and will affect their trades.
In trading, a carry trade means earning the difference between the interest rates of two currencies (the swap).
A carry trading indicator like Swap Hunter would help traders spot profitable carry opportunities — ideally before the market prices them in — by tracking interest rate differentials, central bank moves, volatility, and funding costs.
Find the Carry Trades Everyone Else Misses.
Most traders think they know their swap rates — until they wake up and find overnight funding costs quietly drained their profit.
The real edge in carry trading isn’t what your broker publishes — it’s the hidden shifts in funding costs, central bank signals, and liquidity squeezes that flip your positive carry negative before the market prices it in.
That’s the Black Swan that catches everyone — except the ones hunting it.
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