Silver (XAG/USD) is pulling back after touching recent highs above $39.00. Now trading below $38.50 as the US Dollar extends its rally. The decline comes as the US Dollar Index (DXY) posts gains for the fourth consecutive session.
Supported by a weak Euro amid political turmoil in France.
Although markets remain cautious about the Federal Reserve’s independence and rising expectations of rate cuts, the Greenback’s resilience is keeping precious metals under pressure.
Technical Analysis: $38.35 Support Key for Silver Bears
From a technical perspective, XAG/USD shows a bearish correction from last week’s one-month high at $39.07. Price action is testing support at $38.35 (August 25–26 lows).
A break below $38.35 could drag Silver toward the August 22 low at $37.70, with the next support at $37.25, the lower boundary of the ascending channel.
On the upside, immediate resistance lies near $38.75 and $38.85, followed by the August 22 high at $39.10 and July 22 high at $39.55.
Outlook for Traders
Silver traders should closely watch the $38.35 support zone. A downside break may accelerate bearish momentum, while a rebound above $38.75 could bring back buyers targeting $39.10 and beyond.
For now, Dollar strength remains the dominant driver, leaving Silver vulnerable to further declines.
Gold (XAU/USD) surged to a two-week high on Tuesday as uncertainty deepened following President Trump’s surprise move to fire Federal Reserve Governor Cook. The market reaction highlights renewed demand for safe-haven assets amid political and monetary tensions in the U.S.
Political Shock Fuels Gold Demand
The latest escalation between Trump and U.S. policymakers has rattled investors. While Trump’s earlier campaign to remove Fed Chair Powell stalled, his dismissal of Governor Cook revives concerns about political interference in monetary policy.
Markets now speculate whether Trump will push harder to secure a more dovish majority within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), after failing to convince members to deliver deeper rate cuts.
Technical Outlook: Bulls Gaining Momentum
Gold’s surge cracked a key barrier at $3385 (upper triangle boundary / Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of the $3408–$331 bear leg). However, a decisive break above remains elusive.
Bullish Signals: A potential bullish engulfing pattern is forming on the daily chart, while price action remains underpinned by the thick Ichimoku cloud.
To maintain bullish momentum, traders will look for:
A daily close above $3360 (broken 50% Fibo level).
A close above $3371 (broken 61.8% Fibo) to boost optimism for a breakout.
Such moves would open the way toward $3400–$3408, with further resistance at $3431.
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: 3385, 3400, 3408, 3431 – Swap Hunter gives you the best prices to SELL at to Earn the best Swaps.
Support: 3371, 3360, 3353, 3348 – Swap Hunter gives you the best hedge trade to minimize your Risk.
Bottom Line
Gold remains well-supported by uncertainty around Trump’s clash with the Fed. A break above $3385 could confirm bullish momentum, with the $3400–$3408 zone acting as a critical barrier. However, traders should remain cautious of overbought conditions and watch daily closes for confirmation.
Silver (XAG/USD) rebounds from a two-week low as the US Dollar weakens and traders await the Fed’s July meeting minutes. Will XAG/USD break higher from its symmetrical triangle pattern?
Silver Price Rebound Amid Dollar Weakness
Silver (XAG/USD) staged a sharp recovery on Wednesday, snapping a four-day losing streak after dropping to its lowest level since August 4. The metal found support as the US Dollar retreated, pressured by political headlines after President Trump called for the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook.
At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $37.80, up nearly 1% on the day, after rebounding from an intraday low of $36.96. The move comes as markets turn cautious ahead of the release of the FOMC July meeting minutes at 18:00 GMT, which may shape expectations for the Fed’s inflation outlook and rate trajectory.
Silver Technical Analysis: Triangle Pattern in Play
On the 4-hour chart, Silver is trading within a symmetrical triangle formation, consolidating recent price action. The rebound from the lower boundary near $37.00 suggests strong buying interest at this support zone.
Immediate resistance sits at the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $37.76.
A sustained breakout above this level could open the door toward $38.20, the upper boundary of the triangle and a key psychological mark.
Further upside targets include $38.74 (August 14 swing high) and $39.53, a multi-year peak.
On the downside:
A failure to clear the 100-SMA may keep Silver confined within the triangle.
A break below $37.00 support could trigger bearish momentum, exposing $36.50 and $35.90 as the next demand levels.
Momentum Indicators Signal Potential Shift
RSI: After briefly dipping into oversold territory, the Relative Strength Index has rebounded toward the midline, signaling improving intraday strength.
MACD: The histogram is narrowing, with the MACD line nearing a bullish crossover above the signal line—an early sign that bearish pressure is fading.
These technical signals suggest a potential bullish reversal is underway if Silver can secure a breakout above resistance.
Silver Price Forecast: Outlook
Silver’s near-term outlook hinges on the Fed’s July meeting minutes and the US Dollar’s reaction. A dovish tilt in the Fed’s inflation or rate outlook could weaken the Dollar further, providing support for Silver prices. Conversely, a hawkish tone may cap gains and keep XAG/USD trapped within its current range.
In summary:
Above $38.20 → bullish momentum may accelerate toward $38.74 and $39.53.
Below $37.00 → sellers could regain control, targeting $36.50 and $35.90.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovered around 97.8 on Monday, with investors balancing geopolitical risk and monetary policy signals.
Traders are watching a pivotal meeting in Washington between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, alongside this week’s Federal Reserve Jackson Hole Symposium.
Trump–Zelenskiy Meeting and Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks
Markets are closely monitoring US efforts to push for a resolution in the Russia-Ukraine war.
Trump said he would encourage Zelenskiy to pursue a “quick settlement,” building on his Friday talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
While no ceasefire breakthrough was reached, Putin agreed to allow the US and Europe to provide Ukraine with security guarantees as part of a potential framework.
The presence of European leaders at today’s Washington meeting signals growing urgency for a diplomatic path forward.
This geopolitical backdrop has supported safe-haven demand for gold while keeping the dollar steady.
Federal Reserve: Jackson Hole and September Rate Cut
Markets are pricing an 84% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September 2025, according to Fed funds futures.
Stronger-than-expected US producer inflation and retail sales data have reduced the likelihood of a larger 50 bps cut.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to give guidance at Jackson Hole later this week, while the minutes from the Fed’s last meeting will provide additional clarity on the path forward.
The outcome could shape the next big move for both the dollar and gold prices.
New Zealand Services Sector Still Weak
The latest BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) showed the New Zealand services sector remained under pressure:
PSI rose slightly to 48.9 in July from 47.6 in June, marking the sixth consecutive month of contraction.
Sub-index breakdown: Activity/Sales (47.5) and Employment (47.1) contracted, while New Orders (50.0) were flat and Inventories (51.4) expanded.
Business sentiment remains soft, with 58.5% of firms reporting negative conditions, though that’s an improvement from June (66.2%).
Firms cited weak demand, inflationary pressures, high interest rates, and global uncertainty as key challenges.
Gold Prices Rebound Above $3,350
After hitting a two-week low earlier in the session, gold prices recovered to $3,350 per ounce.
The rebound was driven by safe-haven demand ahead of the Trump-Zelenskiy peace talks.
Traders are also waiting for Powell’s Jackson Hole speech for direction on Fed policy.
If the Fed confirms a September rate cut, gold could gain further momentum in the weeks ahead.
📌 Key Takeaway
Global markets are treading cautiously as geopolitics and monetary policy dominate sentiment.
The dollar is steady,
Gold is rising,
New Zealand’s services sector remains weak, and
Investors await Powell’s guidance at Jackson Hole to gauge the Fed’s next move.
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for July 2025 surged 0.9% month-over-month, marking the sharpest increase since June 2022. This rebound from June’s flat reading easily beat market forecasts of a 0.2% rise, highlighting stronger-than-expected inflation pressures.
Services costs led the gain, climbing 1.1% in July. The biggest driver was a 3.8% jump in margins for machinery and equipment wholesaling, with additional increases in portfolio management, securities brokerage, investment advisory services, traveler accommodations, automobile retailing, and truck freight transportation.
Goods prices also rose 0.7%, fueled by a staggering 38.9% surge in fresh and dry vegetable prices. Other contributors included higher costs for meats, diesel fuel, jet fuel, nonferrous scrap, and eggs, partially offset by a 1.8% drop in gasoline.
The core Producer Price Index—excluding food and energy—also climbed 0.9%, far above the expected 0.2%.
On a yearly basis, headline producer inflation accelerated to 3.3%, the highest in five months, while core PPI jumped to 3.7% from 2.6% in June. Both figures came in well above analyst expectations, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s path toward interest rate cuts later this year. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Economic Calendar Displaying todays PPI data and Jobs data.
📉 US Jobless Claims Fall More Than Expected
U.S. initial jobless claims slipped to 224,000 in early July 2025, down 3,000 from the prior week and below forecasts of 228,000. Continued claims eased by 15,000 to 1.953 million, retreating from a three-year high.
The labor market remains solid despite signs of slowing, with hiring cooling and payroll figures recently revised lower. Federal government employee claims—closely watched after DOGE layoffs—fell by 71 to 637. source: U.S. Department of Labor
All this points to a stronger USD. But we think it will retrace pretty quickly. Get ready for some “whipsaw” action later in todays trading session and coming days.
Former President Donald Trump took aim at Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon on Tuesday, poking fun at his side gig as a DJ while blasting the bank’s past economic forecasts.
“David Solomon and Goldman Sachs refuse to give credit where credit is due,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “They made a bad prediction a long time ago on both the Market repercussion and the Tariffs themselves, and they were wrong, just like they are wrong about so much else.”
Inflation Numbers Trigger Trump’s Remarks
Trump’s comments followed the release of the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report — a key measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported year-over-year inflation at 2.7%, slightly below analyst forecasts of 2.8%.
The Federal Reserve, led by Chair Jerome Powell, has maintained interest rates while evaluating the inflationary impact of tariffs.
Trump took the latest CPI data as validation of his economic stance:
“It has been proven, that even at this late stage, Tariffs have not caused Inflation, or any other problems for America, other than massive amounts of CASH pouring into our Treasury’s coffers,” he said.
Solomon Joins Growing List of CEO Targets
Solomon is the latest high-profile executive in Trump’s firing line. Just last week, the former president called for Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s resignation — before reversing course after meeting with him at the White House on Monday.
With this latest jab, Trump continues his pattern of publicly challenging corporate leaders, often blending policy criticism with personal ridicule.
• A market valuation metric popularized by Warren Buffett is at an all-time high of roughly 208%. • Buffett has said that anytime this indicator approaches 200%, investors are “playing with fire.” • History has proven Buffett right in the past.
Even after Warren Buffett steps down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) (NYSE: BRK.B), his legacy will live on. So will an indicator that bears his name.
Buffett told Fortune magazine in 2001 that this metric, now known as the Buffett indicator, is “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” And now the Buffett indicator is at the highest level ever, sending a warning.
What is the Buffett indicator?
The Buffett Indicator measures the ratio of the total U.S. stock market capitalization to U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Low Readings (70–80%) → Historically great buying opportunities.
High Readings (200%+) → Elevated risk of overvaluation.
Originally, Buffett used Gross National Product (GNP), but GDP is now more commonly applied in the calculation.
The Buffett Indicator, also known as the Market Cap to GDP Ratio, is a valuation metric used to assess whether the stock market is overvalued or undervalued relative to the economy. It is calculated by dividing the total market capitalization of a country’s stock market by its gross domestic product (GDP).
In a sense, the Buffett indicator is similar to the most widely used stock valuation metric — the price-to-earnings ratio. Instead of the share price of a single stock, the total market cap of all U.S. stocks is used. Instead of the earnings generated by a single company, the metric uses the total value generated by everyone in the U.S.
With the Buffett indicator and the price-to-earnings ratio, a lower number reflects a more attractive valuation. Buffett hinted at an ideal range for his namesake metric in the 2001 Fortune article, saying, “If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you.”
Here are various images of the Buffet Indicator demonstrating it’s accuracy to predict price action.
History lesson
As you might have guessed, the Buffett indicator isn’t anywhere close to the 70% to 80% range right now. It’s slightly over 208%, the highest level the indicator has ever reached! If you want to know why Buffett isn’t buying many stocks these days, the Buffett indicator probably explains it.
Buffett’s concern about a high market valuation as measured by the Buffett indicator has been justified by history. He mentioned the indicator spiking in 1999 and 2000, reaching what was then an all-time high. Many investors remember what happened soon afterward. The dot-com bubble burst, with the S&P 500(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) plunging nearly 50% below its previous peak by late 2002.
The Buffett indicator again came close to hitting 200% in November 2021. Within a matter of weeks, the S&P 500 began to sink and eventually fell as much as 25%.
Will the stock market crash again soon?
These historical precedents aren’t encouraging for investors. However, the Buffett indicator isn’t great at predicting short-term stock market moves. For example, the indicator has been above its level in early 2000 (right before the dot-com bubble burst) for most of the period since 2018. During this time, the S&P 500 has soared more than 130%, albeit with significant volatility. However, there’s no getting around the fact that U.S. stocks are historically expensive.
The Buffett indicator isn’t the only metric that reflects this.
The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio, popularized by Yale economics professor Robert Shiller, is near its third-highest level ever.
Stock valuations don’t tend to remain above historic levels for too long. Sooner or later, they will return to a more normal range. With the Buffett indicator at an all-time high, investors probably should brace themselves for what the stock market might do over the near term and almost certainly will do eventually – revert to the mean average, meaning huge declines across all global stock market Indices.
What Should Investors Do Now?
Stay disciplined – focus on long-term investment strategies rather than short-term market timing.
Don’t panic, but be cautious – high valuations increase risk. So it is time to start hedging, find correlated assets and create multiple hedges to balance your portfolio to preserve equity, minimize risk exposure, generate swaps, and create potential to make money on the downside and eventually the upside once the correction is over and markets start recovering.
Diversify your portfolio – to manage volatility. Many stock pickers/investors are moving into Forex, Cryptocurrency ETF’s, Commodities and other Asset Classes.
Cryptocurrencies– Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple and Litecoin have had a lot of coverage recently for multiple reasons. Spot Crypto ETF’s and Stable Coins like USDC are gaining a lot traction and attracting many institutional level investors and the Banks with new legislation being passed post the latest U.S. election. We are happy to go into more detail with you in a private consultation.
Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg sits down with CNBC Crypto World to discuss spot crypto ETFs and regulatory advancements for digital assets in the United States.
Other Asset Classes to consider – Renewable Energies, Water, Data Mining, Rare Earth Metals, AI individual stocks and ETF’s are all places you want some exposure.
Indices – we have started taking short positions on the DOW, NASDAQ, S&P500, DAX30 and NIKKEI. Most of these are also offering a positive swap right now.
What Strategy Should investors use?
Strategy is everything. Our Carry Trade strategies at Swap Hunter offer risk minimization, equity preservation and slow and steady wealth generation. we always hear feedback from our clients how our system is low stress and requires little need for them to be glued to their screens all day and night using technical analysis, watching for data releases and news headlines that cause big movements on the markets and will affect their trades.
In trading, a carry trade means earning the difference between the interest rates of two currencies (the swap).
A carry trading indicator like Swap Hunter would help traders spot profitable carry opportunities — ideally before the market prices them in — by tracking interest rate differentials, central bank moves, volatility, and funding costs.
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That’s the Black Swan that catches everyone — except the ones hunting it.
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The British Pound surged against the Euro and US Dollar following the Bank of England’s August rate decision, defying market expectations of a more dovish tone.
Despite cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%, the Bank of England (BoE) surprised markets with a hawkish message—highlighting inflation risks and suggesting further rate cuts may not come as soon as expected.
🔍 Key Market Reaction: Sterling Strengthens
The BoE’s decision sparked an immediate rally in the Pound:
GBP/USD climbed to a 10-day high of 1.3425, up from 1.3375
GBP/EUR rose to 1.1520, from just above 1.1460
This jump came as traders responded not just to the cut itself, but to the central bank’s less dovish-than-expected toneand revised inflation forecasts.
🏦 Rate Decision: A Split Committee and Hawkish Signals
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 5-4 in favour of a 25bps rate cut:
4 members voted to hold rates steady
4 backed a 25bps cut
MPC member Catherine Taylor initially voted for a 50bps cut, but supported 25bps in a second vote, tipping the balance
This tight vote surprised markets and suggested growing hesitation within the BoE about easing policy further.
📈 Inflation Forecasts Revised Higher
The BoE also raised its inflation outlook, reinforcing the hawkish tone:
CPI is now expected to peak at 4.0% in September (up from 3.7%)
The 1-year inflation forecast was lifted to 2.7% (from 2.4%)
These changes reflect ongoing global cost pressures and domestic policy impacts, including National Insurance hikes.
🗣️ Governor Bailey: “Future Cuts Will Be Gradual”
Governor Andrew Bailey described the August decision as “finely balanced”, noting that future cuts will need to be gradual and carefully assessed. This aligns with the MPC’s revised guidance, which pushes back against aggressive market expectations for steady quarterly cuts.
Rob Wood, Chief UK Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, called the decision a “hawkish surprise”:
“The tone of the minutes and updated forecasts suggests the MPC is now less inclined to cut further this year.”
He emphasized the shift in guidance and upward inflation revisions as signals that the BoE wants to avoid easing too quickly.
Pantheon now expects no further rate cuts in 2025, noting growing concerns that policy may already be close to neutral—no longer clearly restrictive.
📉 Market Outlook: Fewer Cuts Ahead?
With inflation remaining stubbornly high and internal divisions within the MPC, markets have scaled back expectations of further rate cuts this year.
The Bank of England appears to be reasserting control over the narrative, refocusing attention on inflation risks rather than automatic rate reductions.
🔑 Takeaways
BoE cuts rates by 25bps to 4.00%, but signals caution
Pound Sterling spikes against USD and EUR
Inflation forecasts raised, surprising markets
No further cuts are fully priced in for 2025
Analysts now expect the BoE to pause for the rest of the year
💬 What This Means for You
Whether you’re a trader, investor, or simply tracking the UK economy, this decision signals a more complex rate path ahead. Inflation remains the BoE’s top concern, and the bank may be nearing the end of its easing cycle—at least for now.
📌 Stay tuned for our ongoing coverage of UK monetary policy and market reaction. Subscribe for the latest updates!
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Excerpt: The CBI’s retail sales index rose slightly in July 2025 but stayed weaker than expected, showing UK retailers are still battling tough economic conditions. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s import growth slowed in June as demand shifted across sectors and trading partners.
📉 UK Retail Sales: Modest Improvement in July
The Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) latest monthly retail sales gauge brought a hint of relief for UK retailers. The index climbed to -34 in July, improving from June’s 17-month low of -46. However, this figure still missed analysts’ expectations of -26, underlining how high prices and ongoing economic uncertainty continue to drag on consumer spending.
Retail sales volumes have now fallen for ten consecutive months, reflecting the squeeze on household budgets. Looking ahead, retailers are slightly more optimistic about August, with the measure of expected sales rising to -31, compared to -49 a month earlier.
🌏 Hong Kong Imports: Growth Cools in June
Hong Kong’s imports climbed 11.1% year-on-year to $476.7 billion in June 2025, according to the Census and Statistics Department. While this marks another month of growth, it was the slowest rate in five months, down from May’s sharp 18.9% rise.
Imports surged from Vietnam (+50.6%), the United Kingdom (+44.7%), mainland China (+17.3%), Thailand (+15.9%) and the United States (+3.9%). However, imports from South Korea saw a sharp decline (-27.1%).
By product category, there were broad gains in key sectors:
Electrical machinery, apparatus and parts rose 14.6% (vs 23.7% in May)
Telecommunications equipment increased 17.7%
Office machines and data processing equipment rose 9.8%
Miscellaneous manufactured articles grew 12.6%
Power-generating machinery jumped 38.7%
In contrast, declines were recorded for non-metallic mineral manufactures (-15.6%), professional and scientific instruments (-9.4%) and petroleum-related products (-10.5%).
Mortgage Applications See Strongest Weekly Rise in a Month
In the first week of July 2025, the volume of U.S. mortgage applications soared by 9.4% from the previous week — the largest increase in a month, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. This marks the third consecutive weekly gain, the longest streak since December 2024, as benchmark mortgage rates dipped to their lowest since April.
Refinancing activity, which tends to respond quickly to changes in short-term rates, jumped 9% week-over-week and surged 56% compared to the same period in 2024. Similarly, purchase applications rose 9% on the week and were up 25% year-over-year, highlighting renewed strength in the housing market. source: Mortgage Bankers Association of America
Markets Edge Higher on Trade Announcements and Fed Speculation
U.S. equities closed higher on Wednesday as traders digested updates on trade policy and awaited the Federal Reserve’s next moves. The S&P 500 gained 0.5%, the Nasdaq climbed 0.7%, and the Dow Jones rose by nearly 200 points.
President Trump signaled that major trade announcements would be made, including a planned 50% tariff on copper imports and potential 200% tariffs on pharmaceuticals, though implementation is delayed by 12–18 months to give industries time to adapt.
Market participants are closely watching for the FOMC minutes release, which may offer insights into the timing of potential interest rate cuts. Expectations remain strong for two 25 basis point cuts before year-end.
Technology stocks led gains, with Nvidia up 2.2% and Microsoft rising 1.2%. Apple shares were flat, following a statement by White House Trade Counselor Peter Navarro suggesting the company considers itself “too big to tariff.”
Mexico’s Inflation Slows but Core Pressures Rise
Mexico’s annual inflation rate eased to 4.32% in June 2025, down slightly from 4.42% in May, aligning closely with market expectations of 4.31%, according to the national statistics agency INEGI.
Price growth moderated in agriculture (5.04% vs 6.76%) and energy (3.56% vs 3.93%), while accelerating for goods, food, beverages, and services. Notably, core inflation ticked up to 4.24%, suggesting that underlying price pressures remain sticky.
With falling mortgage rates energizing the U.S. housing market, equity markets buoyed by trade policy hints, and inflation trends in Mexico showing mixed signals, July 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal month for both investors and policymakers.
Stay tuned for more updates on monetary policy, inflation data, and global economic trends.
