Dollar Index Sinks to Lowest Level Since 2022 Amid Trade and Geopolitical Tensions

12. June 2025 by Christopher Smilas

The U.S. Dollar Index extended its decline on Thursday, dropping below 97.8—its lowest level since 2022—as a combination of trade uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and soft economic data weighed heavily on market sentiment.

Renewed Trade Tensions Trigger Investor Concerns

President Donald Trump announced plans to send formal letters to major U.S. trading partners within the next one to two weeks. These letters will outline unilateral tariff measures aimed at pressuring countries into new trade agreements. This development comes ahead of the expiration of the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs next month, fueling concerns about a potential escalation in global trade tensions.

Geopolitical Risks Add to Dollar Weakness

Market anxiety intensified further after Iran threatened to strike U.S. military bases if ongoing nuclear negotiations collapse. These heightened geopolitical risks have triggered a shift toward safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, contributing to additional downward pressure on the greenback.

Weak U.S. Inflation Data Fuels Rate Cut Expectations

Adding to the dollar’s slide, U.S. inflation data released Wednesday came in below expectations, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice before the end of the year. Softer inflation reduces the urgency for tightening monetary policy, weakening demand for U.S. assets and the dollar itself.

Biggest Losses Against Euro, Franc, and Yen

The dollar posted its sharpest declines against the:

Euro (EUR)
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Japanese Yen (JPY)

These currencies benefited from both relative economic strength and their safe-haven status amid global uncertainty.

Some Other FX crosses that have profit potential.

Bottom Line: With trade threats looming, geopolitical instability rising, and inflation cooling, the dollar may remain under pressure in the coming weeks. Investors are likely to stay cautious and watch for signals from both the Federal Reserve and global policymakers.

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Tags: Dollar Index, USD, Forex, Geopolitics, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Tariffs, Trump, Iran, Safe Haven, Currency Market, Interest Rates

📊 Market Calm Before the Storm: Why Swap-Hunter Thrives in Uncertainty

9. June 2025 by Analyst

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Global stock markets opened cautiously this week, with U.S. futures hovering near flat. For many traders, this signals indecision. But at Swap-Hunter, this is where our trading system shines.

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🌍 What’s Moving the Market This Week?

U.S.–China Trade Talks (June 9) – High-level negotiations resume in London.
CPI and PPI Inflation Data – Key indicators ahead of the Fed’s June meeting.
Fed Rate Decision (June 17–18) – Rate cut speculation building.
Geopolitical Risk – Domestic protests and National Guard deployment add market tension.

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Tags: U.S.–China Trade, CPI, PPI, Fed Meeting, Trading System, Swap-Hunter, S&P 500, Market Structure

US Job Data Cools Less Than Expected in May – What It Means for Markets and Workers

9. June 2025 by Analyst

How to Trade Forex and Jobs Data with Swap Hunter

In a surprising turn, the latest US job data suggest that the labour market is more resilient than analysts had projected. According to the recent payroll data, US nonfarm employment increased by 139,000 jobs in May, slightly lower than April’s revised figure of 147,000 but higher than the consensus estimate of 130,000.

This unexpected uptick challenges earlier concerns of a sharper slowdown, amid fears of new tariffs and broader economic headwinds. While the pace of job creation has softened, the labour market continues to send mixed signals that demand a closer look.

Key Highlights:

May Job Growth: +139K (vs. 130K expected)
April Revisions: Downwardly adjusted to +147K
Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.2%

Sector-Specific Trends

Employment growth wasn’t evenly distributed. Some industries fared better than others:

Healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance showed steady gains, signaling continued demand for services and care-related roles.
Manufacturing and federal government jobs experienced a decline—potential early signs of budget tightening or shifting production dynamics due to supply chain constraints and tariff concerns.

This pattern reinforces the notion that while the US job engine is still running, it’s shifting gears.

What This Means for Workers

For job seekers, the positive news is that the unemployment rate remains stable, and key service sectors continue to hire. However, those in more cyclical or government-tied industries may want to stay alert to shifting priorities and potential policy changes.

Implications for Markets and Policy

Wall Street had braced for a sharper pullback in hiring, so this report could bring temporary relief. Still, policymakers at the Federal Reserve will likely keep a close eye on wage trends and broader economic indicators before making any interest rate adjustments.

If the economy continues to tread this fine line—neither overheating nor collapsing—it may lend weight to the case for a “soft landing” scenario, which economists have debated for months.

Final Thoughts US Jobs Data

May’s job data serves as a reminder that economic momentum doesn’t vanish overnight—it tapers, recalibrates, and shifts. For businesses and workers alike, staying flexible and responsive to these trends will be crucial in the coming months.

Stay tuned to Swap Hunter for regular updates on the economy, job market trends, and how these shifts impact your career, investments, and day-to-day decisions.

Have thoughts on how these trends could affect your industry? Drop your insights in the comments or connect with us on social media.

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7. June 20257. June 2025 by Analyst

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