From JPY 854.9 billion in April 2022 to JPY 432.4 billion in April 2023, Japan trade balance decreased, falling short of market estimates of a JPY 613.8 billion deficit. The series of 21 months without a trade surplus was the longest since 2015. Exports increased by 2.6% year over year at JPY 8,288.4 billion, marking the 26th consecutive month of growth but the slowest rate since a decline in February 2021. In the meantime, imports fell for the first time in 27 months. Falling 2.3% to JPY 8,720.8 billion, as expenses were decreased by a stronger yen and falling commodity prices, notably oil. source: Ministry of Finance, Japan
How to make money from Japan trade Balance this data? Where is USD/JPY going to move next?
This is what to look out for this week. Pay close attention to Japanese inflation data and Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday.
In anticipation of a compromise between US President Joe Biden and congressional leaders to lift the US debt ceiling and prevent a default, European equity markets were set to open higher on Thursday, extending a global surge. However, investors anticipate earnings announcements from companies including Vantage Towers, BT Group, Burberry, EasyJet, and Premier Foods among others. In the meanwhile, there are no significant economic releases in Europe. While FTSE 100 futures wavered around the flatline in premarket activity, DAX and Stoxx 600 futures both increased by roughly 0.4%.
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As it continues to fight double-digit inflation, the Bank of England is anticipated to hike the United Kingdom interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% in May 2023. This will be the eleventh consecutive rate increase and drive borrowing rates to new highs not seen since 2008. In March, the UK’s annual inflation rate was 10.1%, which is five times greater than the 2% target set by the central bank. Investors will be keenly monitoring the central bank’s future plans to determine whether decision-makers plan to soon cease the tightening cycle or continue raising rates. The BoE will also release its quarterly economic estimates, and most investors believe that the GDP and inflation will be revised higher in 2023. Source: Bank of England
Here is when it is all going down.
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In March 2023, Germany industrial production fell 3.4% month-over-month, reversing a 2.1% increase in February that had been upwardly corrected, and worse than the 1.3% decline predicted by the market. The manufacturing of motor vehicles and their components fell 6.5%, following a 6.9% increase in February, making the automotive industry the biggest drag. Construction (-4.6%), manufacturing of machinery and equipment (-3.4%), and the production of capital goods (-4.4%), intermediate goods (-3.5%), and consumer goods (-0.1%) all experienced declines. But energy output increased by 0.8%. Industrial output decreased 3.3% when construction and energy were excluded. Production in Q1 2023 was 2.5% greater than it was in the previous quarter. Source: Federal Statistical Office
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Biden polls behind Trump (45-38%) & DeSantis (42-37%) in head-to-head matchups, although there are large numbers of undecided voters. >60% of Americans think Biden does not have the physical stamina to serve effectively as president.
The ISM Services PMI increased to 51.9 in April of 2023 from 51.2 in March, and slightly higher than market expectations of 51.8. It marks a fourth consecutive month of growth in the services sector, prompted by a faster increase in new orders (56.1 vs 52.2), a rebound in new export orders (60.9 vs 43.7) and one of the fastest supplier delivery performance since December 2015 (48.6 vs 45.8) due to ongoing improvements in both capacity and supply logistics.
On the other hand, production rose at the slowest pace since May 2020 (52 vs 55.4) and employment growth also slowed (50.8 vs 51.3). Meanwhile, price pressures were slightly higher (59.6 vs 59.5) and backlog of orders fell less (49.7 vs 48.5). “The majority of respondents are mostly positive about business conditions; however, some respondents are wary of potential headwinds associated with inflation and an economic slowdown”, Anthony Nieves, Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee said. source: Institute for Supply Management
Inflation rate decreased 6% in February to 5% in March 2023, which was below market expectations of 5.2% and the lowest level since May 2021.
Food prices increased less quickly than they did in February (9.5% vs. 8.5%), while energy costs decreased (-6.4% vs. +5.2%), particularly for gasoline (-17.4%) and fuel oil (-14.2%). The cost of used automobiles and trucks also decreased (-11.6% vs. -13.6%) at the same time.
On the other hand, housing inflation, which makes up over 30% of the CPI basket overall, continued to rise (8.2% vs. 8.1%). The CPI increased by 0.1% from the previous month, which was less than the 0.2% consensus estimate. Higher prices for housing (0.6%) offset a 3.5% decline.
United States Inflation Rate
In the United States, unadjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers is based on the prices of a market basket of: Food (14% of total weight); Energy (8%); Commodities Less Food & Energy Commodities (21%) and Services Less Energy Services (57%). The last category is divided by: Shelter (32%), Medical Care Services (7%) and Transportation Services (6%).
As the results of the midterm elections began to come in on Wednesday, US stock futures fluctuated between modest gains and losses. Although the contest is still close and the vote count is ongoing, Republicans are probably going to take the House while Democrats are going to maintain the Senate. Stocks continued to rise in regular trade Tuesday, with the Dow rising 1%, the S&P 500 rising 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite rising 0.5%. The October inflation report, which is due tomorrow, is also anticipated by investors for clues as to how much more the Fed might tighten financial conditions in an effort to cool an overheating economy. After missing projections for revenue and earnings for the most recent quarter, Disney shares fell more than 6% in extended trade.
Prices for commodities have benefited from various supply chain changes, primarily in the services sector. However, a decline in insurance firms’ retained earnings this year as a result of high health care consumption rates in 2021 and strong profit margins from 2020 might drive down health expenses and inflation starting in October.
Inflation Rate Set to slow Down in the United States
US Inflation Rate
United States Inflation Rate
In the United States, unadjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers is based on the prices of a market basket of: food (14 percent of total weight), energy (9.3 percent), commodities less food and energy commodities (19.4 percent) and services less energy services (57.3 percent). The last category is divided by: shelter (32.1 percent), medical care services (5.8 percent) and transportation services (5.5 percent).
As the results of the midterm elections began to come in on Wednesday, United States stock market fluctuated between modest gains and losses. Although the contest is still close and the vote count is ongoing, Republicans are probably going to take the House while Democrats are going to maintain the Senate. Stocks continued to rise in regular trade Tuesday, with the Dow rising 1%, the S&P 500 rising 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite rising 0.5%. The October inflation report, which is due tomorrow, is also anticipated by investors for clues as to how much more the Fed might tighten financial conditions in an effort to cool an overheating economy. After missing projections for revenue and earnings for the most recent quarter, Disney shares fell more than 6% in extended trade.
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