The highlights of this week’s activities!

The following major economic indicators are expected to be released this week, much anticipation on the part of the financial markets: 

• Australia’s retail sales index on Tuesday, the Eurozone’s consumer confidence and GDP indices, and the US consumer confidence and employment opportunities indices.

• Expectations are that the US Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at their current range of 5.00% to 5.25% when it releases its interest decision on Wednesday. Regarding the direction of interest rates in the upcoming phase, markets are pricing in a 50% chance of a rate reduction at the March meeting, so all eyes will be on the speech and tone of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

The most significant US events of the previous week were as follows:

• The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index increased by 50.3 points, above forecasts and the prior reading of 47.9.

• The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index increased, showing a 52.9-point gain that was higher than the prior reading (52.9) and the forecast (51.0).

• The GDP index grew by 3.3% in the fourth quarter, above the prior estimate of 4.9% and the forecast of 2.0%.

• The basic durable goods orders index increased, showing a 0.6% gain that was higher than the prior reading of 0.5% and the expected 0.2% growth.

• The new house sales index increased to 664K, above both the prior figure (615K) and the expected value of 645K.

• The initial jobless claims index rose to 214K, which exceeded expectations (200K) and the previous reading (189K).

• US crude oil inventories fell by 9.23 million barrels, which is lower than expectations (-2.15M) and the previous reading (-2.49M).

• The core personal consumption expenditures price index declined on an annual basis, recording 2.9%, which is lower than expectations (3.0%) and the previous reading (3.2%).

• The personal spending index rose on a monthly basis, recording 0.7%, which exceeded expectations and the previous reading (0.4%).

• The pending home sales index rose to 8.3%, which exceeded expectations (1.5%) and the previous reading (-0.3%).

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Technical Analysis:

EUR/USD:

If the euro against the dollar breaks the pivot point of 1.0865, it may potentially target and test the support levels of 1.0799, 1.0745, and 1.0679. Conversely, if it surpasses the pivot point, it is likely to test resistance levels of 1.0918, 1.0985, and 1.1038.

GBP/USD:

If the pound against the dollar breaks the pivot point of 1.2708, it has the potential to test the support levels of 1.2642, 1.2582, and 1.2516. However, if it exceeds the pivot point, it may test resistance levels of 1.2768, 1.2834, and 1.2894.

USD/JPY:

If the pivot point of 147.82 is broken for the dollar against the yen, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 146.95, 145.77, and 144.90. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 149.00, 149.86, and 151.04.

GOLD:

If the pivot point of 2030 is broken for gold, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 2015, 1994, and 1978. But if it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 2051, 2067, and 2088.

BRENT CRUDE OIL:

If the pivot point of 81.72 for crude oil is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels of 79.63, 75.72 and 73.63. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 85.63, 87.72, and 91.63.

US30:

If the pivot point of 38,181 for the Dow is broken, there is a possibility that it will target the support levels 37,988, 37,718 and 37,525. If it exceeds the pivot point, it is likely to target the resistance levels 38,451, 38,644, and 38, 914.

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Please note that this analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.

The Turkish lira kept falling, reaching a new record low of 23.5 per USD. This brought the monthly loss to 13% and the overall depreciation since the runoff election on May 28th to nearly 18%. President Tayyip Erdogan named Hafize Gaye Erkan, formerly a co-CEO at First Republic Bank and a managing director at Goldman Sachs, as the head of Turkey’s central bank after Mehmet Simsek, a former deputy prime minister renowned for his market-friendly policies, was named as the country’s new finance minister. These actions were interpreted as a clear indication of a departure from the unconventional economic practices that had resulted in rising inflation, low interest rates, a falling lira, and negative net foreign exchange reserves.

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Rising Bond Yields

Government bond yields rising globally as investors predicted that high inflation pressures would keep interest rates high. While the Federal Reserve is anticipated to deliver another boost by July, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada both surprised markets with a 25bps interest rate increase this week.

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China Exports Tank

In May 2023, China Exports Tank 7.5% year over year to USD 283.5 billion, reversing an 8.5% gain in April and signaling the first reduction since February and the sharpest drop in four months. As a result of insufficient worldwide demand, the most recent print was worse than the market forecast of a 0.4% fall in outbound exports. source: General Administration of Customs

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Will the European Economy improve?

Following a downwardly revised 10.9% decline in March, factory orders in Germany unexpectedly fell by 0.4% in April 2023, missing market expectations of a 3.0% increase. This affected the European Economy. The dip in industrial orders, which was mostly caused by a drop in large-scale orders, continued for the second month in a row. The number of new orders for the manufacture of machinery and equipment fell 6.2%. While the number of new orders for the construction of miscellaneous vehicles—which includes the construction of ships, railway vehicles, aircraft, spacecraft, and army vehicles—down 34%. New orders increased 1.4% when large orders were excluded. Orders for consumer products decreased by 2.5%, and orders for capital goods decreased by 1.7%. The demand for intermediate goods jumped by 2.3%, and orders for motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts increased by 2.4%. While domestic orders increased 1.6%, orders from abroad declined 1.8%, including 2.7% less from the Euro Area. federal statistical office as a source.

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US Jobs Data and NFP

It is the US Jobs Data and NFP release today. Following a jump of 253K in April, the US economy is predicted to have added 190K jobs in May 2023, which would be the second-lowest record since December 2020. The industries of leisure and hospitality are projected to have added the most jobs, while manufacturing employment is predicted to remain stable and tech sector layoffs to continue. In addition, these numbers may be impacted by the Writers Guild of America’s ongoing strike. The unemployment rate is predicted to increase slightly, from 3.4% to 3.5%, although it will still be near to five-decade lows. Pay growth is anticipated to have remained constant at 4.4% and wages are anticipated to have increased by 0.3%, less than the 0.5% increase seen in April. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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The NBS Manufacturing PMI missed market expectations and dropped to a five-month low of 48.8 in May 2023 from 49.2 in April. The most recent data indicated that manufacturing activity had decreased for a second month in a row due to weak domestic and international demand. For the first time in four months, output decreased (49.6 vs. 50.2 in April), while new orders (48.3 vs. 48.8), purchasing activity (49.0 vs. 49.1), and export sales (47.2 vs. 47.6) also declined quicker. For the third consecutive month, employment decreased (48.4 vs. 48.8). Delivery time was also marginally decreased (50.5 vs. 50.3). On the price front, output charges decreased for the third consecutive month, while input costs decreased at the highest rate since last July (40.8 vs 46.4).

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United States Debt Deal

As a result of the expectation that Congress will approve the debt deal, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note dropped to 3.73% from 3.85% the previous week. In a late-Saturday phone chat, House Speaker McCarthy and President Biden came to a tentative agreement. Federal expenditure will be limited for the following two years, and the debt ceiling will be suspended until January 1, 2025. Before it advances to the Senate, the House will probably vote on it on Wednesday. The 4-week bill fell to below 5.5% as yields on shorter-maturity bonds, which have a larger default risk, continued to tumble from recent highs.

Traders are also anticipating important economic data due this week.

Such as the JOLTS, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, and the payrolls report. All of which will affect interest rates, USD, United States Debt deal and most assets you may be invested in.

Here is the Economic Calendar so you don’t miss out

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US Inflation

The Federal Reserve’s hawkish signals and increased optimism regarding the debt ceiling negotiations supported the dollar index’s recent gain to approximately 103.5 today, which is hovering at its highest level in two months. The dollar index has also risen by roughly 0.8% so far this week. It is expected to continue rising this week. Investors held out optimism that a deal would be made to raise the US debt ceiling in order to prevent a default. On Thursday, two Fed members stated that the US inflation does not appear to be slowing down quickly enough to allow the central bank to stop raising interest rates. The likelihood that the Fed will announce another 25 basis point raise next month is now estimated by the markets to be roughly 40%.

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Lots of data coming up that will affect US Inflation

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