The Turkish lira kept falling, reaching a new record low of 23.5 per USD. This brought the monthly loss to 13% and the overall depreciation since the runoff election on May 28th to nearly 18%. President Tayyip Erdogan named Hafize Gaye Erkan, formerly a co-CEO at First Republic Bank and a managing director at Goldman Sachs, as the head of Turkey’s central bank after Mehmet Simsek, a former deputy prime minister renowned for his market-friendly policies, was named as the country’s new finance minister. These actions were interpreted as a clear indication of a departure from the unconventional economic practices that had resulted in rising inflation, low interest rates, a falling lira, and negative net foreign exchange reserves.

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Rising Bond Yields

Government bond yields rising globally as investors predicted that high inflation pressures would keep interest rates high. While the Federal Reserve is anticipated to deliver another boost by July, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada both surprised markets with a 25bps interest rate increase this week.

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China Exports Tank

In May 2023, China Exports Tank 7.5% year over year to USD 283.5 billion, reversing an 8.5% gain in April and signaling the first reduction since February and the sharpest drop in four months. As a result of insufficient worldwide demand, the most recent print was worse than the market forecast of a 0.4% fall in outbound exports. source: General Administration of Customs

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Will the European Economy improve?

Following a downwardly revised 10.9% decline in March, factory orders in Germany unexpectedly fell by 0.4% in April 2023, missing market expectations of a 3.0% increase. This affected the European Economy. The dip in industrial orders, which was mostly caused by a drop in large-scale orders, continued for the second month in a row. The number of new orders for the manufacture of machinery and equipment fell 6.2%. While the number of new orders for the construction of miscellaneous vehicles—which includes the construction of ships, railway vehicles, aircraft, spacecraft, and army vehicles—down 34%. New orders increased 1.4% when large orders were excluded. Orders for consumer products decreased by 2.5%, and orders for capital goods decreased by 1.7%. The demand for intermediate goods jumped by 2.3%, and orders for motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts increased by 2.4%. While domestic orders increased 1.6%, orders from abroad declined 1.8%, including 2.7% less from the Euro Area. federal statistical office as a source.

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US Jobs Data and NFP

It is the US Jobs Data and NFP release today. Following a jump of 253K in April, the US economy is predicted to have added 190K jobs in May 2023, which would be the second-lowest record since December 2020. The industries of leisure and hospitality are projected to have added the most jobs, while manufacturing employment is predicted to remain stable and tech sector layoffs to continue. In addition, these numbers may be impacted by the Writers Guild of America’s ongoing strike. The unemployment rate is predicted to increase slightly, from 3.4% to 3.5%, although it will still be near to five-decade lows. Pay growth is anticipated to have remained constant at 4.4% and wages are anticipated to have increased by 0.3%, less than the 0.5% increase seen in April. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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