Japan’s annual inflation rate fell slightly to 2.7% in March 2024 from a three-month high of 2.8% in February, in line with market expectations. Slightly below estimates of 2.7%, the core inflation rate dropped to 2.6% from a four-month peak of 2.8%. Following two months of leveling, monthly consumer prices increased by 0.2% in March, the highest level since October of previous year. Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications as the source
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Asian Stocks Fall Following Concerning Powell Remarks: Markets Wrap US rates surged on Tuesday following Powell’s indication of a postponement of a rate decrease. A key Asia stock barometer momentarily erases 2024 gains as concerns escalate.
In March 2024, Asian Stocks and Japan’s trade balance saw significant changes compared to the previous year. Japan’s trade balance shifted from a deficit of JPY 750.854 billion to a surplus of JPY 366.467 billion. This change was driven by increased exports and decreased imports, resulting in the first trade surplus in three months. Shipments surged by 7.3% year over year in May, reaching JPY 9,469.60 billion, the highest in three months, fueled by strong demand from the US and China. However, imports, mainly mineral fuels, fell by 4.9% to JPY 9,103.13 billion, marking the second dip of the year. Despite this improvement, Japan recorded a trade deficit of JPY 9.29 trillion in 2023, marking the third consecutive year of deficit.
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S&P 500 Sets a New High Amid Fed Watchful Eye and Earnings Surge
As investors anticipated the earnings results of many major tech companies and the Fed’s interest rate decision, the S&P 500 hit a fresh all-time high on Monday.
The index increased by 0.81% to 4,929.53, above the previous high of 4,906.77, which was reached on January 26. Investors are factoring in large earnings growth expectations and are expecting rate decreases sooner than Federal Reserve officials anticipate. If stock values are sustainable, especially for mega-cap US technology companies, the next few days will be critical.
With 19% of the S&P 500 releasing their results this week, it is the busiest week of the earnings season. Several of the largest tech firms, including Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet– which have been leading the rally this year — will make their performance public. Investors will also be following the earnings releases from a few Dow members, including Merck and Boeing.
Furthermore, on Tuesday the Federal Open Market Committee will begin its two-day policy meeting. It is nearly a given among investors that the Fed won’t alter interest rates. The CME Group estimates that traders in the fed funds futures market placed a 97% probability on the Fed maintaining current rates at its next meeting. Given that authorities have been attentively observing the most recent economic data, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s impending press conference is quite important.
Consumer spending has exceeded expectations, yet inflation has not increased as predicted.
The S&P 500 will peak in the coming weeks at about 5,000 if the positive trend continues. But the RSI indicator indicates that the index has entered an overbought state and may “break” in the next days before continuing its rise.
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Is a Third World War on the horizon? Iran attacked Israel with extensive airstrikes. World leaders urge calm amid fears of wider conflict. Israel’s defense forces report over 300 drones and missiles. Concerns grow in an already troubled region. Attack caused minor damage, says Israel’s military. Iron Dome intercepted 99% of launches. Iran alleges Israeli attack on embassy grounds in Damascus.
In response to the attack on Saturday, Israel has promised to “exact a price” from Iran ahead of a War Cabinet meeting on Monday. Experts have expressed uncertainty on the precise timing and magnitude of this kind of backlash.
Iran’s airstrike on Israeli military sites drew strong condemnation from US President Joe Biden.
Biden pledged to protect citizens, vowing necessary action against threats.
NBC News reports US officials fear Israel may escalate tensions with Iran.
Biden privately worries Netanyahu seeks US involvement in regional conflict.
Biden reassured commitment to Israel’s security, calling it “ironclad.”
Notice how Safe haven assets like Gold have dropped this morning. Will it last?
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The situation seems to be teetering on the edge of escalation. With Iran’s recent large-scale assault on Israel and the subsequent interception of most of the incoming munitions, tensions are undoubtedly high. The U.S.’s stance on avoiding further conflict in the Middle East, despite its commitment to Israel’s security, indicates a delicate diplomatic balancing act.
Given the potential for further disruptions to oil supplies if the conflict escalates into a full-on war between Israel and Iran, it’s understandable that investors are closely monitoring the situation. The stability of oil prices, currently holding around $85.5 per barrel, reflects this cautious sentiment.
It will be crucial to observe how Israel responds to the attack and whether it aims for de-escalation or retaliation. Any further military action could have significant implications not only for the region’s security but also for global oil markets and broader geopolitical dynamics.
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It seems that despite the tense situation in the Middle East, investors are expressing some relief, reflected in the slight uptick in U.S. stock-market futures. The fact that crude oil prices remain relatively stable around $85.65 suggests that markets are cautiously optimistic about the situation not escalating further at the moment.
This response could indicate that investors are interpreting the events over the weekend as isolated incidents rather than the beginning of a broader conflict. However, given the volatility of geopolitical tensions, this sentiment could change rapidly depending on developments in the region.
Continued monitoring of the situation in the Middle East and any further statements or actions from key players like the U.S., Israel, and Iran will be essential for understanding how markets may react in the coming days.
